tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-72957152024-02-09T02:28:36.212+08:00David on Enterprise Software - Podcast/AudioblogCoverage areas include: Web services & SOA; utility & grid computing; Open Source; ERP, MRP, SCM, PLM, PDM, CRM, & SFA software; IP telephony & mobile enterprise applications; collaboration technologies; business intelligence & knowledge management; content management & enterprise portals; middleware & EAI; software development & testing; outsourcing & offshoring; and, much more.David Scott Lewishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06551889503905976812noreply@blogger.comBlogger24125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7295715.post-1120877214390670072005-07-09T10:46:00.000+08:002005-07-09T10:46:54.396+08:00UPDATE: Switching to a new format, with a surprise in the works ...<DIV> <DIV>Please stay tuned. I plan to release my next podcast by October -- and it will very likely be part of a global podcasting network, eventually going to a weekly, 30 minute format. Can't say more, but please stay tuned!!</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><!--StartFragment -->Cheers,<BR><BR>David Scott Lewis<BR><SPAN><EM>President & Principal Analyst</EM></SPAN><BR>IT E-Strategies, Inc.<BR>Qingdao, China & Menlo Park, California<BR>DSL.7747350 -at- bloglines.com<SPAN> (used to avoid a bit of spam)<BR></SPAN><SPAN>callto://davidscottlewis</SPAN> </DIV></DIV>David Scott Lewishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06551889503905976812noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7295715.post-1109234869633797492005-02-11T16:55:00.000+08:002005-02-24T17:20:38.346+08:00Inaugural Podcast - Part 2 of 2 - CommentaryWelcome to the inaugural podcast of <span style="font-weight:bold;">David on Enterprise Software</span>.<br /><br />In this edition there's coverage of utility computing (both from a virtualization and a software-as-a-service perspective), knowledge management and IBM's Rational Unified Process.<br /><br />Please send me or call in your feedback!!<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">To directly download this podcast, click <a href="http://rizzn.net/scripts/podcast/podcasts/DSL.wyepyy.mp3">here</a>.</span><br /><br />Cheers,<br /><br />David Scott Lewis<br /><span style="font-style:italic;">President & Principal Analyst</span><br />IT E-Strategies, Inc.<br />Qingdao, China & Menlo Park, California<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">DSL.7747350 -at- bloglines.com</span> (used to avoid a bit of spam)<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">callto://davidscottlewis</span>David Scott Lewishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06551889503905976812noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7295715.post-1109234552329430132005-02-11T16:24:00.000+08:002005-02-24T17:25:09.006+08:00Inaugural Podcast - Part 1 of 2 - Background & MissionWelcome to the inaugural podcast of <span style="font-weight:bold;">David on Enterprise Software</span>.<br /><br />For commentary on utility computing (both from a virtualization and software-as-a-service perspective), knowledge management and IBM's Rational Unified Process see the <a href="http://rizzn.net/scripts/podcast/podcasts/DSL.wyepyy.mp3">second</a> part of this podcast.<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;"><br />To directly download part one, click <a href="http://rizzn.net/scripts/podcast/podcasts/DSL.pituag.mp3">here</a>.<br />To directly download part two, click <a href="http://rizzn.net/scripts/podcast/podcasts/DSL.wyepyy.mp3">here</a>.</span><br /><br />Cheers,<br /><br />David Scott Lewis<br /><span style="font-style:italic;">President & Principal Analyst</span><br />IT E-Strategies, Inc.<br />Qingdao, China & Menlo Park, California<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">DSL.7747350 -at- bloglines.com</span> (used to avoid a bit of spam)<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">callto://davidscottlewis</span>David Scott Lewishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06551889503905976812noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7295715.post-1100143478319675862004-11-11T11:24:00.000+08:002004-11-11T11:24:38.320+08:00[urls/news] The Global Grid: China's HPC Opportunity<DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV>Thursday, November 11, 2004</DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV><EM><STRONG>Dateline: China</STRONG></EM></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>For this posting, I'm using an annotated urls format. Let's begin.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face="comic sans ms" size=3>The Global Grid</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Grid computing. HPC (high-performance computing). Lots of trade press coverage. Lots of academic papers. Generally, this is a GREAT convergence. Didn't hold with AI (artificial intelligence), but the coverage of grid computing is much more pervasive. Also, it's an area where I believe that systems integrators (SIs) in China can play with the globals. It's new enough that there are no clear leaders. Okay, maybe IBM is a clear leader, but it's certainly not an established market.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>It's also a market where Chinese SIs can leverage work done for domestic applications for Western clients. This is NOT true in areas such as banking applications; the apps used in China are very different from the apps used in the States. Fundamentally different systems. But a lot of grid work is more about infrastructure and custom development. There's also a lot of open source in the grid sphere.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>I've selected some of the best papers and sites for review. This is certainly not meant to be comprehensive, but simply follow the links for more info.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>One last note: <STRONG>Clicking on any of the following links will likely lead you to an abstract and possibly to some personal commentary not included in this posting.</STRONG> You may also find related links found by other Furl users.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#000080><U><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=994537"><B>Open Grid Services Infrastructure (OGSI) Version 1.0 (PDF)</B></A></U></FONT></DIV> <DIV>The "Bible" of the grid world. The home page will lead to many other relevant papers and reports. See also <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=1249930"><B>The Anatomy of the Grid (PDF)</B></A>.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><!--StartFragment --><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=1249925"><B>IBM Systems Journal - Vol. 43, No. 4, 2004 - Grid Computing</B></A> </DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#000000>Hottest journal issue in town!! Papers may be downloaded for free. See also<!--StartFragment --> <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=1242295"><B>Grid computing: Conceptual flyover for developers</B></A>.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#000080><U></U></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#000080><U><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=994562"><B>GlobusWORLD 2004 Conference Program (with abstracts & decks)</B></A><B> </B></U></FONT></DIV> <DIV>One of the better conferences; covers applications and provides links to several excellent papers and presentations.</DIV> <DIV><STRONG><FONT color=#000080></FONT></STRONG> </DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#000080><FONT color=#000080><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=998509"><STRONG>Services Computing: Grid Applications for Today (PDF)</STRONG></A><STRONG><U> </U></STRONG></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV>Well, the link has been replaced. Try to get a hold of this paper. It WAS available for free. <STRONG>SOA meets the grid</STRONG>. The lead author, Liang-Jie Zhang, is a researcher at IBM T.J.Watson Research Center and chair of the IEEE Computer Society Technical Steering Committee (technical community) for Services Computing. Contact him at <A href="mailto:zhanglj@us.ibm.com">zhanglj@us.ibm.com</A> . Ask for his related papers, too.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#000080><U><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=1224325"><B>Proceedings of the 2nd workshop on Middleware for grid computing</B></A><B> </B></U></FONT></DIV> <DIV>Several excellent papers; recent conference. Middleware: Yes, middleware is the key to SI opportunities.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#000080><FONT color=#000080><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=1043798"><STRONG>2nd Annual ATIP Chinese HPC Workshop at SC '04</STRONG></A><STRONG><U> </U></STRONG></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#000000>Conference held earlier this month!! See who is doing what in China.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><!--StartFragment --><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=1237388"><B>Brain Meets Brawn: Why Grid and Agents Need Each Other (PDF)</B></A> </DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#000000>Want a competitive edge in the grid space? This is it!!</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#000080><U></U></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#000000>NOTE: A search for "grid computing" in my Furl archive yields 164 hits (and most are publicly searchable). See <A href="http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle">http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle</A> .</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face="comic sans ms" size=3>Other News</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG><FONT face="times new roman" size=3>Outsourcing & Offshoring:</FONT></STRONG></DIV> <DIV><STRONG><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=3></FONT></STRONG> </DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#000080><U><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=1028472"><B>Article Warns China Against Following India in Developing Software Industry</B></A><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=1047844"><B> </B></A></U></FONT></DIV> <DIV>I don't agree with this, but it's worth reading, especially considering the source. I agree that China shouldn't try to be a clone of India, but the arguments in support of the domestic market don't consider margins.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#000080><FONT color=#000080><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=926230"><B>Budapest, the Next Bangalore? New EU Members Join the Outsourcing Race</B></A></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV>I'll be writing a column for the AlwaysOn Network about the disconnect between China's foreign policy initiatives and the realities of the IT sector. Suffice it to say that <STRONG>SIs in China should NOT chase after the EU</STRONG>. Again, <STRONG>do NOT confuse foreign policy with corporate policy</STRONG>!!</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#000080><U><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=1067008"><B>Romania IT Services Market Primed for Growth, Says IDC | Tekrati Research News</B></A></U></FONT><B> </B></DIV> <DIV>More of the same. Read my comments about Romania by clicking the link ...</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#000080><U><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=1067272"><STRONG>Google to lean heavier on R&D centre in B'lore</STRONG></A></U></FONT><STRONG> </STRONG></DIV> <DIV>Google is coming to China, too. Think MS Research in Beijing.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#000080><U><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=1145867"><B>IBM expands China research site in midmarket push</B></A></U></FONT> </DIV> <DIV>Another great move by IBM; they're clearly leading the pack.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#000080><U><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=1032706"><B>TCS shifts focus to China's market</B></A></U></FONT> </DIV> <DIV>This article is a bit confusing. I suspect that TCS is simply copying the IGS China strategy. But it's worth noting that they're moving beyond servicing their American clients with a presence in China.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#000080><U><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=1035932"><B>Wipro in talks to buy US-based Cymbal</B></A></U></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#000000>Yes, yes and yes. Expect a lot more of this. I wouldn't be surprised to see China's SIs forced to move a bit lower on the U.S. SI food chain for partnerships. Move up the chain by thinking verticals!!</FONT></DIV> <DIV><STRONG><U></U></STRONG> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG><FONT face="times new roman" size=3>BPO:</FONT></STRONG></DIV> <DIV><STRONG><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=3></FONT></STRONG> </DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#000080><U><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=1032693"><B>The next big BPO question</B></A></U></FONT> </DIV> <DIV>No need to click; it's all about security.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#000080><U><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=1028737"><B>Carnegie scientists develop model to help Indian BPOs</B></A></U></FONT> </DIV> <DIV>No, not really a new model; more about a new certification!! Just what the world needs ...</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face="times new roman" size=3><STRONG>Enterprise Software:</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><STRONG><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=3></FONT></STRONG> </DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#000080><U><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=847041"><B>Introduction to Structured Content Management with XML</B></A></U></FONT></DIV> <DIV>The title says it all.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#000080><U><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=1067504"><B>Open Source Content Management with Plone</B></A></U></FONT> </DIV> <DIV>Maybe the "P" in "LAMP" should stand for "Plone"?</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#000080><U><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=847073"><B>Some software vendors see opportunity in providing development tools for globally dispersed teams</B></A></U></FONT> </DIV> <DIV>A strategy for USERS, i.e., SIs in China.</DIV> <DIV><STRONG><U></U></STRONG> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG><FONT face="times new roman" size=3>Marketing & Management:</FONT></STRONG></DIV> <DIV><U><FONT color=#000080></FONT></U> </DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#000080><U><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=1051718"><B>Four Ways to Pick a Winning Product</B></A></U></FONT></DIV> <DIV>Product Management 101, courtesy of the Harvard Business School.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#000080><U><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=1052543"><B>Free creative thinking tools on the Web - from InnovationTools</B></A></U></FONT> </DIV> <DIV>Spread this throughout your organization ... and then ramp up with some paid tools.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#000080><U><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=1024912"><B>Information Processing, Knowledge Development and Strategic Supply Chain Performance (PDF)</B></A></U></FONT></DIV> <DIV>SCM (supply chain management) meets marketing, but with a general management and strategy slant.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#000080><U><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=844278"><B>Strategic Decisions of New Technology Adoption under Asymmetric Information (PDF)</B></A></U></FONT></DIV> <DIV>G2 planning strategies. A wee bit mathematical, but still fairly easy to follow.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Expect the next <EM><STRONG>original</STRONG></EM> posting in two or three weeks; my next column for the AlwaysOn Network will be sent to this list. Off to HK/SZ/ZH/GZ next week.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV>Cheers,</DIV></DIV> <DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>David Scott Lewis</DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV><EM>President & Principal Analyst</EM></DIV> <DIV>IT E-Strategies, Inc.</DIV> <DIV>Menlo Park, CA & Qingdao, China</DIV> <DIV><STRONG><A href="http://tinyurl.com/6xeue">e-mail</A></STRONG>: click on <A href="http://tinyurl.com/6xeue">http://tinyurl.com/6xeue</A></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.itestrategies.com/" target=_blank>http://www.itestrategies.com</A> (current blog postings optimized for MSIE6.x) </DIV> <DIV><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa</A> (access to blog content archives in China)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2azkh">http://tinyurl.com/2azkh</A> (current blog postings for viewing in other browsers and for access to blog content archives in the US & ROW)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/chinasourcingalert">http://feeds.feedburner.com/chinasourcingalert</A> (RSS feed)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://chinasourcing.blogspot.com/atom.xml" target=_blank>http://chinasourcing.blogspot.com/atom.xml</A> (Atom feed)</DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#0000ff><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2hg2e">http://tinyurl.com/2hg2e</A></FONT> (AvantGo channel)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle">http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle</A> (Furl)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle/rss.xml">http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle/rss.xml</A> (Furl RSS feed)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV></DIV> <DIV><STRONG>To automatically subscribe click on <A href="http://tinyurl.com/388yf" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/388yf</A> .</STRONG></DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV>David Scott Lewishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06551889503905976812noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7295715.post-1095608667025029192004-09-19T23:44:00.000+08:002004-09-19T23:44:27.026+08:00[urls] Measuring the ROI of Software Process Improvement<DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV>Saturday, September 18, 2004</DIV> <DIV><EM><STRONG>Dateline: China</STRONG></EM></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV> <DIV>The following is a sampling of my top ten "urls" for the past couple/few weeks. By signing up with <A href="http://www.furl.net/"><FONT color=#000099><STRONG>Furl</STRONG></FONT></A> (it's <STRONG>free</STRONG>), anyone can subscribe to an e-mail feed of ALL my urls (about 100-250 per week) -- AND limit by <U>subject</U> (e.g., ITO) and/or <U>rating</U> (e.g., articles rated "Very Good" or "Excellent"). It's also possible to receive new urls as an RSS feed.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><EM><FONT color=#0000ff><STRONG>All of the top ten are PDFs</STRONG></FONT></EM>. <STRONG><FONT size=3><U>Click on the link to read the abstract for each paper</U>.</FONT></STRONG></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Note: <STRONG><FONT color=#6000bf>Off to California for a couple of weeks</FONT></STRONG>. Probably no <EM><STRONG>new, original </STRONG></EM>postings until after the October national holiday in China. (I get a three week break from writing for this blog, but I'll still be writing columns for the <A href="http://www.alwayson-network.com/">AlwaysOn Network</A>.)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Verdana color=#ff0000><FONT size=3>Top Honors:</FONT> </FONT></STRONG></DIV> <DIV><STRONG></STRONG> </DIV> <DIV><!--StartFragment -->* <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=765471"><STRONG>Measuring the ROI of Software Process Improvement</STRONG></A> (relatively speaking, very popular among Furl viewers; highly accessible article with a lot of substance and pointers)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG><FONT face=verdana><FONT color=#ff0000 size=3>Other best new selections (in order of popularity as determined by Furl views, then alphabetically):</FONT></FONT></STRONG></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><!--StartFragment -->* <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=765605"><B>A Framework for Off-The-Shelf Software Component Development and Maintenance Processes</B></A> (this was THE most popular paper, although I liked the ROI article better; superb info, good guidelines, lots of food for thought)</DIV> <DIV>* <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=807204"><B>Agent-Based e-Supply Chain Decision Support</B></A> (not as geeky as it sounds; lead author is with Carnegie Mellon's e-Supply Chain Management Laboratory & Institute for e-Commerce)</DIV> <DIV><!--StartFragment -->* <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=813971"><B>B2B E-Commerce Stages of Growth: the Strategic Imperatives</B></A> (a look at some case studies; provides some insights into B2B adoption and diffusion)</DIV> <DIV><!--StartFragment -->* <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=807207"><B>Creating an Open Agent Environment for Context-Aware M-Commerce</B></A> (from the Mobile Commerce Laboratory at Carnegie Mellon <no, this isn't necessarily CMU week>; I have a lot of doubts about this stuff, but it's worth firing a few neurons and giving it a spin)</DIV> <DIV><!--StartFragment -->* <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=765625"><B><FONT color=#ff0000>Development and Evaluation of Software Process Improvement Methods (Dissertation, 190 pp.)</FONT></B></A> (<STRONG>superb</STRONG> overviews sprinkled with case studies; <STRONG>it was tough to choose between this dissertation and the ROI paper for top honors</STRONG>)</DIV> <DIV>* <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=813956"><B>Deriving a Diffusion Framework for Web-Based Shopping Systems</B></A> (a bit of a technical flavor, but not <EM>too</EM> technical; puts e-shopping in a broader perspective, e.g., relative to EDI)</DIV> <DIV>* <STRONG><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=807139">Exploring Defect Causes in Products Developed by Virtual Teams</A></STRONG> (<FONT color=#ff0000><STRONG>to all SIs developing a GDM - global delivery model - READ THIS!!; <U>perhaps the most important paper among my top ten</U></STRONG></FONT>)</DIV> <DIV>* <STRONG><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=765390">Intelligent Support for Software Release Planning</A></STRONG> (a corporate technical paper describing a very useful software development management tool; see also the <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=778302"><STRONG>Release Planner</STRONG></A> (tm) home page)</DIV> <DIV>* <STRONG><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=777717">NaradaBrokering and its Applications</A></STRONG> (might be better than WebSphere; see also <STRONG><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=777713">The NaradaBrokering Project at IU Community Grids Laboratory</A></STRONG>) </DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>And <STRONG>my PERSONAL favorite</STRONG>:</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG>> <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=765387">The Banality of Google</A></STRONG> (good for some laughs)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>and many, many more ...</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Cheers,</DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>David Scott Lewis</DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV><EM>President & Principal Analyst</EM></DIV> <DIV>IT E-Strategies, Inc.</DIV> <DIV>Menlo Park, CA & Qingdao, China</DIV> <DIV><STRONG><A href="http://tinyurl.com/6xeue"><FONT color=#000099>e-mail</FONT></A></STRONG>: click on <A href="http://tinyurl.com/6xeue"><FONT color=#000099>http://tinyurl.com/6xeue</FONT></A></DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#000099></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.itestrategies.com/" target=_blank><FONT color=#000099>http://www.itestrategies.com</FONT></A> (current blog postings optimized for MSIE6.x) </DIV> <DIV><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa" target=_blank><FONT color=#000099>http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa</FONT></A> (access to blog content archives in China)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2azkh"><FONT color=#000099>http://tinyurl.com/2azkh</FONT></A> (current blog postings for viewing in other browsers and for access to blog content archives in the US & ROW)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/chinasourcingalert"><FONT color=#000099>http://feeds.feedburner.com/chinasourcingalert</FONT></A> (RSS feed)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://chinasourcing.blogspot.com/atom.xml" target=_blank><FONT color=#000099>http://chinasourcing.blogspot.com/atom.xml</FONT></A> (Atom feed)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2hg2e"><FONT color=#000099>http://tinyurl.com/2hg2e</FONT></A> (AvantGo channel)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle"><FONT color=#000099>http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle</FONT></A> (Furl)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle/rss.xml"><FONT color=#000099>http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle/rss.xml</FONT></A> (Furl RSS feed)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV></DIV> <DIV><STRONG>To automatically subscribe click on <A href="http://tinyurl.com/388yf" target=_blank><FONT color=#000099>http://tinyurl.com/388yf</FONT></A> .</STRONG></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV>David Scott Lewishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06551889503905976812noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7295715.post-1095321080109611472004-09-16T15:51:00.000+08:002004-09-16T15:51:20.110+08:00[news/commentary] Building ISV Relationships: Targeting SMEs - Part I<DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV>Thursday, September 16, 2004</DIV> <DIV><EM><STRONG>Dateline: China</STRONG></EM></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face="comic sans ms" color=#ff0000 size=3>New column on the <A href="http://www.alwayson-network.com/">AlwaysOn Network</A>.</FONT> <STRONG>It's on the potential downside of offshoring (the downside for the States, that is)</STRONG>. For the next five days, see <A href="http://www.alwayson-network.com/">http://www.alwayson-network.com</A> ; the permanent link is at <A href="http://tinyurl.com/4e4q4">http://tinyurl.com/4e4q4</A> . It got the ire of a lot of readers and a lot of views (I'm projecting nearly 500 in less than one day). <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>The article which was the basis for my column is getting a lot of attention in the States.</FONT></STRONG> Worth reading.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face="comic sans ms" size=3>Building ISV Relationships: Targeting SMEs -- Part I</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>First, a bit of commentary. <STRONG>One thing all smart SIs (systems integrators) do is develop partnerships and alliances with ISVs</STRONG> (independent software vendors, i.e., software publishers/software companies in a broad sense). Of course, it's difficult to be the 1,000th entrant in the game and expect to get any traction/assistance from your ISV partner.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>SIs in China ALWAYS use the approach of offering localization services and OFTEN offer to help push an ISV's product within the domestic market in China. Frankly, this is what the (usually American) ISV wants, too. Does this strategy work? Well, sometimes. However, even in the case of high profile alliances such as some of those Microsoft has in China (and I won't name names to protect the innocent), it's really nothing more than window dressing. Everything looks good on paper, but the reality is something quite different.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Regardless, this does NOT address the need and desire for SIs in China to build their market in the States. And when this issue becomes center stage, ISVs frequently respond with something bordering on contempt. <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>Some ISVs are getting clued that their American channel partners absolutely need partners in China and other low(er)-cost development areas in order to win bids.</FONT></STRONG> Let's face it, it's all about closing deals. And if an ISV's competitors have channel partners which can put together winning bids, perhaps in part (and perhaps in LARGE part) due to an offshoring component with their channel partner's SI partner(s) in China, then the ISV with an indirect link to China has a competitive advantage. <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>I don't view this as a sufficient condition to winning bids, but <EM>it's increasingly a necessary condition</EM>.</FONT></STRONG></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Clued ISVs want their American channel partners to have an offshoring option, but this requires that their channel partners have relationships with SIs in a country such as China. But ISVs tend to focus their channel development efforts on their American partners and might develop a couple/few relationships in China, but usually NOT tied to their channel development efforts in the States. Goofy and shortsighted, to say the least.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>But <STRONG>how can SIs in China get traction with American ISVs</STRONG>, especially since they're almost always late to the game (in other words, the American ISV already has a well-developed channel)? <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>The answer</FONT></STRONG> (or, at least one answer): <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>Focus on servicing the needs of SMEs</FONT></STRONG> (small and medium enterprises, which is also referred to as "<STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>SMBs</FONT></STRONG>" -- small and medium businesses).</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>There's another reason this makes sense: Most of the SIs in China are already focused on servicing SMEs/SMBs in China. It might be nice to bag a large SOE (state-owned enterprise), but the reality is that most firms in China, especially the burgeoning number of privately-held firms, are SMEs by definition. Hence, the experiences gained by SIs in China is already within the same market, although I'd be the first person to warn than company size and even similar domains does not necessarily equate to directly transferable skills. Fact is, things in China are often quite different from the way they are in the States, especially in a "hot" ITO (IT outsourcing) market like financial services. <FONT color=#a94a76><STRONG>More about this in a forthcoming posting</STRONG></FONT>. <STRONG>Bottom line:</STRONG> Give serious thought to targeting the SMB/SME market in the States. (Part II of this commentary might be a while in coming.)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face="comic sans ms" size=3>IT Tidbits</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Lots of tidbits this week.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG><EM><FONT color=#0000ff><A href="http://www.computerworld.com/printthis/2004/0,4814,95196,00.html">Controlling project costs</A>.</FONT></EM></STRONG> My favorites: Scope creep, not understanding project financing, "big-bang" projects, overtesting (although I'm not sure I agree with this one), poor estimating. Good stuff, with recommended solutions. See <A href="http://tinyurl.com/6rfkg">http://tinyurl.com/6rfkg</A> .</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG><EM><FONT color=#0000ff>Challenges for China's SIs.</FONT></EM></STRONG> Adapted from a <A href="http://home.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/index.jsp?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20040914005591&newsLang=en">Forrester report</A>. <!--StartFragment --> For starters, how about: Improving account management (are there really any account managers in China, or at least any who can manage accounts with U.S. clients? <IMG src="http://us.i1.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/mesg/tsmileys2/03.gif"> ), moving away from technology-centric messages that often alienate business buyers (better yet, moving away from messages in Chinglish), investing in vertical-specific skills (how many times have I said this?) and becoming more multicultural organizations (yes, and let's start with learning English!). See <A href="http://tinyurl.com/4avfo">http://tinyurl.com/4avfo</A> .</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG><EM><FONT color=#0000ff>"Yee Haw" as an outsourcing option.</FONT></EM></STRONG> Forget India. Forget China. Forget the Philippines. <A href="http://www.computerworld.com/printthis/2004/0,4814,95792,00.html">Let's go to Arkansas</A>!! See <A href="http://tinyurl.com/7ya9p">http://tinyurl.com/7ya9p</A> .</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG><EM><FONT color=#0000ff><A href="http://sify.com/finance/fullstory.php?id=13566898">American start-ups go offshore</A>.</FONT></EM></STRONG> Try Corio (is Corio really a start-up?), CollabNet, Aarohl, Infinera, and many others. See <A href="http://tinyurl.com/3wm3o">http://tinyurl.com/3wm3o</A> . Another good article with a BPO spin in <A href="http://www.venturecapitaljournal.net/vcj/1070549975581.html"><EM>Venture Capital Journal</EM></A>, <A href="http://tinyurl.com/4rfsa">http://tinyurl.com/4rfsa</A> .</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG><EM><FONT color=#0000ff><A href="http://www.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,9982364%255E15317,00.html">Offshorings mixed results.</A></FONT></EM></STRONG> "<!--StartFragment --><SPAN class=bodytext>Vietnam and Myanmar were also in demand ..." Really? See <A href="http://tinyurl.com/647ap">http://tinyurl.com/647ap</A> .</SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=bodytext></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=bodytext><STRONG><EM><FONT color=#0000ff><A href="http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=109&STORY=/www/story/09-09-2004/0002247194&EDATE=">Looking for SI partners?</A></FONT></EM></STRONG> Kennedy ranks the largest firms. As I've said in the past, I like their reports. (No, I don't get a cut.) Satyam and TCS didn't make the grade, though. See <A href="http://tinyurl.com/4s965">http://tinyurl.com/4s965</A> .</SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=bodytext></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=bodytext><STRONG><EM><FONT color=#0000ff><A href="http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/display.article?id=4462">Another challenge to conventional outsourcing and offshoring "wisdom."</A></FONT></EM></STRONG> <!--StartFragment --> "Services-driven development models, such as the one at work in India, broaden the global competitive playing field. As a result, new pressures are brought to bear on hiring and real wages in the developed world - pressures that are not inconsequential in shaping the jobless recoveries unfolding in high-cost wealthy nations. For those in the developed world, successful services- and manufacturing-based development models in heavily populated countries such as India and China - pose the toughest question of all: what about us?" For more, see <A href="http://tinyurl.com/4acm4">http://tinyurl.com/4acm4</A> .</SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=bodytext></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=bodytext><STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff><EM>Forget the Golden Triangle. How about China + India vs. the world (or, </EM>sans<EM> the world)?</EM></FONT></STRONG> "<!--StartFragment -->Newspaper headlines portray China as the world's manufacturing base for low-cost goods, like clothing and shoes, and India as the global IT monopoly-to-be. Unfortunately, media outside Asia have failed to acknowledge the growing partnership between the two giants." "<!--StartFragment -->Given the complementary nature of their economies and the size of their markets (nearly 2.2 billion people in total), the nascent cooperation between the two holds the potential to dramatically alter the world trade balance. A perusal of the Shanghai technology corridor reveals a hint of the countries' industrial interconnectedness. Walk through one of the main complexes in Shanghai's Pudong Software Park, and you will see a prominently displayed sign for Infosys, one of India's most respected IT firms. The same complex also holds Satyam, the first of India's software service companies to set up offices in Shanghai. Nearby are the headquarters of the largest software services company in Asia, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), which currently runs an outsourcing center for GE in the town of Hangzhou. TCS is owned by the Tatas, one of India's most prominent business families. Across the river is NIIT, the principal software training center in India's private sector. NIIT, operating in China since 1998, now runs an extensive two-year course in 25 provinces, training around 20,000 students to be software professionals. There is widespread speculation that Wipro, India's only giant IT firm without a presence in the city, will establish a Shanghai office very soon. It is no surprise that Indian software companies are setting up in China. <STRONG>They</STRONG>, like everyone else, <STRONG>sense great opportunity in one of the largest, fastest-growing economies in the world</STRONG>." (Bold is my emphasis.) All true, and they even forget MphasiS. See one of my must-read sources, <A href="http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/display.article?id=4483"><STRONG>YaleGlobal</STRONG></A>: <A href="http://tinyurl.com/6ltaz">http://tinyurl.com/6ltaz</A> .</SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=bodytext></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=bodytext><STRONG><EM><FONT color=#0000ff>The partnering wave of the future.</FONT></EM></STRONG> I've talked about this many times in previous postings. This time <A href="http://www.buffalonews.com/editorial/20040909/1028359.asp">CTG dances with Polaris Software</A>. See <A href="http://tinyurl.com/5tbqd">http://tinyurl.com/5tbqd</A> .</SPAN></DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=bodytext></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV><SPAN class=bodytext><STRONG><EM><FONT color=#0000ff><A href="http://infotech.indiatimes.com/cms.dll/html/uncomp/articleshow/836340.cms">CMMi: The key to success</A>.</FONT></EM></STRONG> A little simplistic and uses incorrect definitions, but still worth reading. See <A href="http://tinyurl.com/4gp9u">http://tinyurl.com/4gp9u</A> .</SPAN></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><!--StartFragment --><STRONG><EM><FONT color=#0000ff><A href="http://www.business-standard.com/strategist/storypage.php?hpFlag=Y&chklogin=N&autono=166468&leftnm=lmnu7&leftindx=7&lselect=0">Cognizant sees growth in entertainment, media</A>.</FONT></EM></STRONG> The title says it all. See <A href="http://tinyurl.com/4kdlq">http://tinyurl.com/4kdlq</A> .</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG><EM><FONT color=#0000ff><A href="http://www.offshoring-digest.com/index.php?p=94">Software development in the Philippines</A>.</FONT></EM></STRONG> Will this series ever stop? See <A href="http://tinyurl.com/54grw">http://tinyurl.com/54grw</A> .</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff><A href="http://www.businessweek.com/print/bwdaily/dnflash/sep2004/nf2004099_2108_db083.htm?db"><EM>TCS in</EM> BusinessWeek</A><EM>.</EM></FONT></STRONG> See <A href="http://tinyurl.com/6k24k">http://tinyurl.com/6k24k</A> .</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG><EM><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=814741">Is India invincible?</A></EM></STRONG> See <A href="http://tinyurl.com/64b2t">http://tinyurl.com/64b2t</A> .</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG><EM><FONT color=#0000ff>How about Microsoft vs. China in an AO "Grudge Match"?</FONT></EM></STRONG> See a lengthy <A href="http://www.cfo.com/printable/article.cfm/3015475?f=options">article in <EM>CFO</EM></A> titled, "Does Microsoft need China?"; link at <A href="http://tinyurl.com/476bo">http://tinyurl.com/476bo</A> . China: The champion of open source!!</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG><EM><FONT color=#0000ff><A href="http://www.computerworld.com/printthis/2004/0,4814,95663,00.html">Jini at work</A>.</FONT></EM></STRONG> No, <A href="http://www.computerworld.com/softwaretopics/software/appdev/story/0,10801,95673,00.html?nas=APP-95673">it's not dead</A> (yet). See <A href="http://tinyurl.com/6p2kv">http://tinyurl.com/6p2kv</A> and <A href="http://tinyurl.com/3t893">http://tinyurl.com/3t893</A> .</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG><EM><FONT color=#0000ff><A href="http://www.innovationtools.com/weblog/innovationblog-detail.asp?ArticleID=540">Business creativity 101</A>.</FONT></EM></STRONG> "<!--StartFragment -->A new book from Wharton School Publishing, <EM>The Power of Impossible Thinking</EM> by Jerry Wind and Colin Crook prompts you to rethink your mental models and transform them to help you achieve new levels of creativity. In this book, the authors give a set of guidelines on how to see differently." Examples: <!--StartFragment --> <STRONG>Listen to the radicals; <!--StartFragment -->embark on journeys of discovery; <!--StartFragment -->look across disciplines. </STRONG>See <A href="http://tinyurl.com/6fvo8">http://tinyurl.com/6fvo8</A> .</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><!--StartFragment --><FONT class=article-blurb face="Arial, Verdana, san-serif" size=2><STRONG><EM><FONT color=#0000ff><A href="http://hbswk.hbs.edu/item.jhtml?id=4353&t=innovation&nl=y">The innovator's battle plan</A>.</FONT></EM></STRONG> "Great firms can be undone by disruptors who analyze and exploit an incumbent's strengths and motivations. From <B>Clayton Christensen's</B> new book <I>Seeing What's Next</I>." GREAT stuff (although John Dvorak won't like it). What about <!--StartFragment --><FONT face="Arial, Verdana" color=#000000 size=2><SPAN class=article-subtitles>asymmetric warfare theories applied to the realm of corporate innovation and creativity? Just a thought ... See <A href="http://tinyurl.com/6mbcy">http://tinyurl.com/6mbcy</A> .</SPAN></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT class=article-blurb face="Arial, Verdana, san-serif" size=2><FONT face="Arial, Verdana" color=#000000 size=2><SPAN class=article-subtitles></SPAN></FONT></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT class=article-blurb face="Arial, Verdana, san-serif" size=2><FONT face="Arial, Verdana" color=#000000 size=2><SPAN class=article-subtitles><STRONG><EM><FONT color=#0000ff>Your next competitors?</FONT></EM></STRONG> <A href="http://www.fcw.com/fcw/articles/2004/0913/tec-world-09-13-04.asp">Have you thought about<!--StartFragment --> Senegal, Uganda, Kenya, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh</A>, especially in the BPO space? See <A href="http://tinyurl.com/5h93z">http://tinyurl.com/5h93z</A> .</SPAN></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT class=article-blurb face="Arial, Verdana, san-serif" size=2><FONT face="Arial, Verdana" color=#000000 size=2><SPAN class=article-subtitles></SPAN></FONT></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT class=article-blurb face="Arial, Verdana, san-serif" size=2><FONT face="Arial, Verdana" color=#000000 size=2><SPAN class=article-subtitles><EM><STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff><A href="http://hbswk.hbs.edu/item.jhtml?id=4360&t=dispatch">Message to product companies: go sell services</A>!!</FONT></STRONG></EM> Interesting take from a VMI perspective. See <A href="http://tinyurl.com/5tqrt">http://tinyurl.com/5tqrt</A> .</SPAN></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT class=article-blurb face="Arial, Verdana, san-serif" size=2><FONT face="Arial, Verdana" color=#000000 size=2><SPAN class=article-subtitles></SPAN></FONT></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT class=article-blurb face="Arial, Verdana, san-serif" size=2><FONT face="Arial, Verdana" color=#000000 size=2><SPAN class=article-subtitles><STRONG><EM><FONT color=#0000ff>Don't know much about bloggin'?</FONT></EM></STRONG> <A href="http://www.corporateblogging.info/2004/08/six-types-of-business-blogs.asp">Good take</A> on the various types of corporate blogs. See <A href="http://tinyurl.com/6my29">http://tinyurl.com/6my29</A> .</SPAN></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT class=article-blurb face="Arial, Verdana, san-serif" size=2><FONT face="Arial, Verdana" color=#000000 size=2><SPAN class=article-subtitles></SPAN></FONT></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT class=article-blurb face="Arial, Verdana, san-serif" size=2><FONT face="Arial, Verdana" color=#000000 size=2><SPAN class=article-subtitles><STRONG><EM><FONT color=#0000ff>Urls as web services?</FONT></EM></STRONG> You have to <A href="http://www.teledyn.com/mt/archives/002126.html">read it</A> to get it. Might be a bit too much for the uninitiated ... See <A href="http://tinyurl.com/563gm">http://tinyurl.com/563gm</A> .</SPAN></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT class=article-blurb face="Arial, Verdana, san-serif" size=2><FONT face="Arial, Verdana" color=#000000 size=2><SPAN class=article-subtitles></SPAN></FONT></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT class=article-blurb face="Arial, Verdana, san-serif" size=2><FONT face="Arial, Verdana" color=#000000 size=2><SPAN class=article-subtitles><STRONG><EM><FONT color=#0000ff>Joel is back and blogging!!</FONT></EM></STRONG> <A href="http://www.joelonsoftware.com/articles/NotJustUsability.html">Joel takes on Jakob Nielsen</A> in "it's not just usability." See <A href="http://tinyurl.com/6msmm">http://tinyurl.com/6msmm</A> .</SPAN></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT class=article-blurb face="Arial, Verdana, san-serif" size=2><FONT face="Arial, Verdana" color=#000000 size=2><SPAN class=article-subtitles></SPAN></FONT></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT class=article-blurb face="Arial, Verdana, san-serif" size=2><FONT face="Arial, Verdana" color=#000000 size=2><SPAN class=article-subtitles><STRONG><EM><FONT color=#0000ff><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=807106">How about open source software for HPC?</A></FONT></EM></STRONG> See <A href="http://tinyurl.com/5qzle">http://tinyurl.com/5qzle</A> . <STRONG><FONT color=#ff0000>WARNING: Geek alert, geek alert!!</FONT></STRONG></SPAN></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT class=article-blurb face="Arial, Verdana, san-serif" size=2><FONT face="Arial, Verdana" color=#000000 size=2><SPAN class=article-subtitles></SPAN></FONT></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT class=article-blurb face="Arial, Verdana, san-serif" size=2><FONT face="Arial, Verdana" color=#000000 size=2><SPAN class=article-subtitles><STRONG><EM><FONT color=#0000ff>Saving the best for last: </FONT></EM></STRONG><A href="http://hbswk.hbs.edu/item.jhtml?id=4367&t=innovation&nl=y"><STRONG><EM><FONT color=#0000ff>a piece on Woz</FONT></EM></STRONG></A><STRONG><EM><FONT color=#0000ff>.</FONT></EM></STRONG> See <A href="http://tinyurl.com/4szjf">http://tinyurl.com/4szjf</A> .</SPAN></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT class=article-blurb face="Arial, Verdana, san-serif" size=2><FONT face="Arial, Verdana" color=#000000 size=2><SPAN class=article-subtitles></SPAN></FONT></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT class=article-blurb face="Arial, Verdana, san-serif" size=2><FONT face="Arial, Verdana" color=#000000 size=2><SPAN class=article-subtitles>TTFN. Expect a urls update before I go back to the States.</SPAN></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Cheers,</DIV></DIV> <DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>David Scott Lewis</DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV><EM>President & Principal Analyst</EM></DIV> <DIV>IT E-Strategies, Inc.</DIV> <DIV>Menlo Park, CA & Qingdao, China</DIV> <DIV><STRONG><A href="http://tinyurl.com/6xeue">e-mail</A></STRONG>: click on <A href="http://tinyurl.com/6xeue">http://tinyurl.com/6xeue</A></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.itestrategies.com/" target=_blank>http://www.itestrategies.com</A> (current blog postings optimized for MSIE6.x) </DIV> <DIV><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa</A> (access to blog content archives in China)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2azkh">http://tinyurl.com/2azkh</A> (current blog postings for viewing in other browsers and for access to blog content archives in the US & ROW)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/chinasourcingalert">http://feeds.feedburner.com/chinasourcingalert</A> (RSS feed)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://chinasourcing.blogspot.com/atom.xml" target=_blank>http://chinasourcing.blogspot.com/atom.xml</A> (Atom feed)</DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#0000ff><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2hg2e">http://tinyurl.com/2hg2e</A></FONT> (AvantGo channel)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle">http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle</A> (Furl)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle/rss.xml">http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle/rss.xml</A> (Furl RSS feed)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV></DIV> <DIV><STRONG>To automatically subscribe click on <A href="http://tinyurl.com/388yf" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/388yf</A> .</STRONG></DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV>David Scott Lewishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06551889503905976812noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7295715.post-1094550559167421832004-09-07T17:49:00.000+08:002004-09-07T17:49:19.166+08:00[news] Grudge Match: China vs. Europe + "It's Malaysia Time ..."<DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV>Tuesday, September 7, 2004</DIV> <DIV><EM><STRONG>Dateline: China</STRONG></EM></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>This week marks the debut of my bi-weekly (or so) column for the <A href="http://www.alwayson-network.com/">AlwaysOn Network</A>, Silicon Valley's premier online social networking venue (and unofficially linked to Silicon Valley's premier in person social networking venue, the <A href="http://www.churchillclub.org/">Churchill Club</A>; I'm a member of both). I will be sharing "Letter from China" columnist duties with Paul Waide, the head of Pacific Epoch, a Shanghai-based boutique consultancy that advises hedge funds on alternative investments in China. My first column is on Shanghai and a couple/few forthcoming columns will examine cultural differences between Chinese Nationals, Chinese-Americans and Anglo-Americans, especially within the context of IT and IT marketing. I will post my AlwaysOn "Letter from China" columns to this blog/e-newsletter, although please be advised that my intended audience are readers based in Silicon Valley.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face="comic sans ms" size=3><STRONG>Grudge Match: China vs. Europe</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Staying on topic, I'd like to make a comment about a recent "Grudge Match" on the AlwaysOn Network. See the item marked "Grudge Match" for 08.05.04 (5 August 2004) at <A href="http://www.alwayson-network.com/polling/index.php">http://www.alwayson-network.com/polling/index.php</A> .</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>In the referenced "Grudge Match," China was pitted against Europe. <STRONG>China received 45% of the votes in contrast to Europe's 55%</STRONG>. Frankly, I'm surprised that China did so well. I've found that the AO "Grudge Match" results tend to indicate sentiment more so than reality. For example, a recent match pitted SpaceShipOne against NASA and SSO absolutely clobbered NASA (besides, perhaps most of the votes for NASA came from either Ames or the Blue Cube). Of course, SSO is a high school science experiment compared to what NASA is doing, but I believe the results accurately reflect sentiment. </DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>But what is amazing (to me, at least) is that China was pitted against Europe in the first place! Let's face it, this is a rather goofy "grudge match." For Europe to include First World nations such as Germany, France, the U.K., Ireland, Italy, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark (yes, some countries are intentionally left out) -- and to compare the collective whole of First World Europe (a.k.a. "Western Europe") to China is absurd. If this was First World Europe vs. China <EM>circa</EM> 2020, okay. But TODAY? Yet, the sentiment indicator showed a strong vote in favor of China. Europe "won," but barely.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>I propose the following "grudge match": China vs. "Eastern Europe" (i.e., the former Soviet Bloc).</FONT> </STRONG>Look, if China can do so well against Europe as a whole (including First World Europe), I'm sure China would absolutely kick Second World Europe's butt!! And a China "grudge match" against Eastern Europe more accurately reflects current "history."</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>But even this is a bit misleading. <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>The real "grudge match" is this: China + India vs. Second World Europe.</FONT></STRONG> And given this choice, only someone stranded on Mars for the past decade might choose Second World Europe. Yet, this is the real so-called "grudge match." First World Europe is in descent, to be sure, but it's descending from a high altitude. It will take at least a decade or two for China (and/or India) to truly match First World Europe. But China ALREADY is superior to Second World Europe. And don't rant about NATO and EU memberships; this is simply window dressing. Then combine China with India versus Second World Europe, playing into my <STRONG>"Golden Triangle"</STRONG> theme, i.e., <STRONG>it's all about the U.S., India and China</STRONG>. This is where the action is, ESPECIALLY in IT.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face="comic sans ms" size=3><STRONG>"It's Malay<FONT face="comic sans ms">sia</FONT> Time ..."</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>I must be getting punchy since I'm borrowing a theme from a beer commercial, but it seems that Malaysia is experiencing its 15 minutes of fame. The Philippines has recently been "hot," and several articles of late have been touting Malaysia (see, for example, an article which appeared in <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=772635"><EM>Space</EM> <EM>Daily</EM></A><EM>).</EM> Frankly, I'm getting tired of all this nonsense. Look, when it comes to ITO (IT outsourcing) in East Asia, there are just two choices, i.e., India and China. And, it's not really a competition; both have their strengths and weaknesses. A few crumbs to Singers (Singapore), maybe even a few crumbs to the Kiwis (New Zealand). The Philippines deserves notice, albeit <EM><STRONG>passing</STRONG></EM> notice, and Malaysia might be okay for some BPO. But ITO? Come on, give me a break!! See <A href="http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle/ITO">my Furl archive</A> for more links.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>The only thing I recently found interesting regarding Malaysia was an article on <A href="http://www.crmbuyer.com/story/Malaysia-Stands-to-Gain-from-Satyam-Outsourcing-36385.html">Satyam's IT boot camp in Malaysia</A>. This isn't really unique, after all, IBM has been doing this sort of thing for decades. So does HP. Kind of like training plus a bit of brainwashing, but the brainwashing is acceptable since it includes political survival skills -- and said skills are essential, especially in F500 corporations. But I like the idea of SI (systems integrator)-based training: This way SIs can focus on "real" versus theoretically perceived needs.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face="comic sans ms" size=3><STRONG>IT Tidbits</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff><EM>Which certifications have the best ROI (return on investment)?</EM></FONT></STRONG> Playing off the idea of SI-based training, which are the most important certifications? Well, Cisco leads with three out of the top five, although Microsoft picks up a couple of "wins" when looking at fastest-growing ROI, with RedHat and Oracle getting one win each. SIs in China may also want to benchmark how much U.S. employees are paid given a certain certification, e.g., Microsoft DBAs receive an annual average salary of US$80,600. Think about how much SIs in China pay for a certified Microsoft DBA. For example, what do they get paid in Jinan -- or even in Dalian? Compare this to US$80,600. Spot any opportunities? <A href="http://www.crn.com/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=42700075&flatPage=tru">See</A> <A href="http://tinyurl.com/3nvpz">http://tinyurl.com/3nvpz</A> <A href="http://www.crn.com/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=42700073&flatPage=true">and</A> <A href="http://tinyurl.com/6r2s5">http://tinyurl.com/6r2s5</A> .</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><!--StartFragment --><TD height="20" width="310" valign="top" align="left"></DIV> <DIV align=left><FONT face=Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,Swiss,SunSans-Regular color=#0000ff size=2><STRONG><EM>ITO in the news.</EM></STRONG> <FONT color=#000000>Two particularly noteworthy items. First, ITO got Slashdotted. The <A href="http://it.slashdot.org/it/04/09/05/2035255.shtml?tid=187&tid=103&tid=218">Slashdot</A> links are worth a review. Probably some good insight into what American software engineers are thinking and feeling. The second is a review of Lou Dobbs' new book on ITO and BPO. Mr. Dobbs is a well-respected host on CNN; his views shouldn't be taken lightly. A couple of excerpts from the review:</FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV align=left> </DIV> <DIV align=left>"<!--StartFragment --><SPAN class=body-content>GE, as Dobbs makes clear in abundant detail, is only one of many companies outsourcing high-tech and professional jobs to India and other parts of the world where wage expectations are lower. Among the others spotlighted by Dobbs for outsourcing jobs to India, the Philippines, Romania, Ireland, Poland and other countries are IBM, SAS Institute, Intel, Microsoft, Perot Systems, Apple, Computer Associates, Dell, Hewlett-Packard, Oracle and Sun Microsystems." <STRONG>My comment: Romania is the Changsha of Third World Europe, i.e., their programmers are about as cheap as programmers come.</STRONG></SPAN></DIV> <DIV align=left><SPAN class=body-content></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV align=left><SPAN class=body-content>"'<!--StartFragment --><SPAN class=body-content>India can provide our software; China can provide our toys; Sri Lanka can make our clothes; Japan make our cars. But at some point we have to ask, what will we export? At what will Americans work? And for what kind of wages? No one I've asked in government, business or academia has been able to answer those questions,' Dobbs writes." See the review in the <EM><A href="http://www.tallahassee.com/mld/tallahassee/business/9444188.htm">Tallahassee Democrat</A></EM> or my <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=733557">Furl link</A> .</SPAN></SPAN></DIV> <DIV align=left><SPAN class=body-content><SPAN class=body-content></SPAN></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV align=left><SPAN class=body-content><SPAN class=body-content><EM><STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>So-called infrastructure vendors beat out app vendors<!--StartFragment --> </FONT></STRONG></EM><FONT class=bodySmall><SPAN class=body><EM><STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>in terms of their ability to meet expected ROI and TCO (total cost of ownership) levels.</FONT></STRONG></EM> I don't really like the way infrastructure and application vendors are defined in this <A href="http://www.line56.com/articles/default.asp?ArticleID=5880">article</A> and related survey, but <STRONG><U>top honors go to IBM and Microsoft</U></STRONG>. There's a lot being written between the lines, but in general this plays into my "build-to-a-stack" strategy, albeit Oracle is left behind. See <A href="http://tinyurl.com/3tpjo">http://tinyurl.com/3tpjo</A> .</SPAN></FONT></SPAN></SPAN></DIV> <DIV align=left><SPAN class=body-content><SPAN class=body-content><FONT class=bodySmall><SPAN class=body></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV align=left><SPAN class=body-content><SPAN class=body-content><FONT class=bodySmall><SPAN class=body><EM><STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>Speaking of Microsoft ...</FONT></STRONG></EM> A good, quick review <A href="http://www.forbes.com/2004/08/30/cx_ld_0830msft.html?partner=technology_newsletter">of the various IBUs (independent business units) at Microsoft</A>. (See <A href="http://tinyurl.com/5rjtk">http://tinyurl.com/5rjtk</A> .) For <A href="http://www.forbes.com/business/2004/09/02/cx_ld_0902msft.html">a take on MBS</A>, see <A href="http://tinyurl.com/6k4dp">http://tinyurl.com/6k4dp</A> .</SPAN></FONT></SPAN></SPAN></DIV> <DIV align=left><SPAN class=body-content><SPAN class=body-content><FONT class=bodySmall><SPAN class=body></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV align=left><SPAN class=body-content><SPAN class=body-content><FONT class=bodySmall><SPAN class=body><STRONG><EM><FONT color=#0000ff>New marketing technologies.</FONT></EM></STRONG> Interesting <A href="http://www.cmomagazine.com/press/shock/">article</A> from the premier issue of <EM><A href="http://www.cmomagazine.com/">CMO</A></EM> (Chief Marketing Officer). There are two ways to view this: 1) which marketing technologies can be used by SIs in China for their own marketing endeavors, and 2) which marketing technologies will likely be adopted by retailers, e-commerce sites, financial institutions and numerous other sectors -- and which in house skills does an SI in China need to implement these new technologies (all of which are IT-related)? See <A href="http://tinyurl.com/57wvp">http://tinyurl.com/57wvp</A> .</SPAN></FONT></SPAN></SPAN></DIV> <DIV align=left><SPAN class=body-content><SPAN class=body-content><FONT class=bodySmall><SPAN class=body></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV align=left><SPAN class=body-content><SPAN class=body-content><FONT class=bodySmall><SPAN class=body><STRONG><EM><FONT color=#0000ff>Looking for partners in the utility computing space?</FONT></EM></STRONG> For a start, try the <A href="http://www.aspnews.com/top50/article.php/11307_3391021_2">top 25 vendors</A>. (See <A href="http://tinyurl.com/48s9j">http://tinyurl.com/48s9j</A> .) Yankee gives a quick look at utility computing ROI (see <A href="http://tinyurl.com/5fw88">http://tinyurl.com/5fw88</A> ). <A href="http://www.hpl.hp.com/techreports/2004/HPL-2004-124.pdf">HP chimes in</A> with their take, too (see <A href="http://tinyurl.com/58mhg">http://tinyurl.com/58mhg</A> ; it's a PDF).</SPAN></FONT></SPAN></SPAN></DIV> <DIV align=left><SPAN class=body-content><SPAN class=body-content><FONT class=bodySmall><SPAN class=body></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV align=left><SPAN class=body-content><SPAN class=body-content><FONT class=bodySmall><SPAN class=body><STRONG><EM><FONT color=#0000ff>The battle of the SI globals.</FONT></EM></STRONG> <A href="http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/ew/2004/08/30/stories/2004083000050100.htm">Two</A> related <A href="http://inhome.rediff.com/money/2004/aug/17bpo.htm">articles</A> both based on the same Forrester report. (See <A href="http://tinyurl.com/6tfrn">http://tinyurl.com/6tfrn</A> and <A href="http://tinyurl.com/5tljq">http://tinyurl.com/5tljq</A> .) Issues being considered include scalability (i.e., handling US$100+ million accounts), the need for broad offerings (e.g., strategy consulting) and expanding geographical presence (hey, where is EDS in China?). <!--StartFragment --> "(T)<FONT class=sb13>he (Forrester) study finds that Infosys and Wipro have melded together a mix of CMMI, P-CMM, Six Sigma and ISO 9000 to create a culture focused on consistent and repeatable processes and value-added tools."</FONT> For China's SIs, mostly food for thought -- and a bit of dreaming.</SPAN></FONT></SPAN></SPAN></DIV> <DIV align=left><SPAN class=body-content><SPAN class=body-content><FONT class=bodySmall><SPAN class=body></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV align=left><SPAN class=body-content><SPAN class=body-content><FONT class=bodySmall><SPAN class=body><EM><STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>... and how to battle the globals.</FONT></STRONG></EM> The <A href="http://news.com.com/Outsourcers%20combine%20to%20take%20on%20IT%20services%20giants/2100-7345_3-5345052.html?part=rss&tag=5345052&subj=news.7345.5">article</A> was a bit silly, after all, G2000 firms joining forces to battle Accenture or Infosys doesn't really fit the notion of smaller firms joining forces. But I believe that they're on the right track and that <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>a myriad of partnerships will be formed to most effectively capture new business and battle the globals</FONT></STRONG>. However, ISVs (independent software vendors) have to walk a very fine line. SIs need to carefully consider ISV responses and existing alliances. See <A href="http://tinyurl.com/7xj82">http://tinyurl.com/7xj82</A> .</SPAN></FONT></SPAN></SPAN></DIV> <DIV align=left><SPAN class=body-content><SPAN class=body-content><FONT class=bodySmall><SPAN class=body></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV align=left><SPAN class=body-content><SPAN class=body-content><FONT class=bodySmall><SPAN class=body><STRONG><EM><FONT color=#0000ff>"Infosys to set up second outsourcing facility in China."</FONT></EM></STRONG> The <A href="http://www.computerworld.com/managementtopics/outsourcing/story/0,10801,95487,00.html?nas=XSP-95487">article</A> states that Infosys is running out of space in their Pudong facility and that they're scouting for additional digs. Come on, guys, running out of space? There's not enough space in the Shanghai Pudong Software Park? I don't think so ... The reality is that Infosys needs to find lower cost developers. As my column on Shanghai for AO's "Letter from China" notes, developers in Shanghai are a bit pricey compared to other places in China. Infosys China is primarily servicing their global customers in China and looking for high-end integration within the domestic market. However, this is a tough nut to crack and Infosys will need another development center to lower their overall costs -- and this is why they are looking for additional space IN ANOTHER CITY. The idea that they're running out of space in the SPSP is ridiculous. (I've been to their Shanghai digs ...) See <A href="http://tinyurl.com/6nz8d">http://tinyurl.com/6nz8d</A> .</SPAN></FONT></SPAN></SPAN></DIV> <DIV align=left><SPAN class=body-content><SPAN class=body-content><FONT class=bodySmall><SPAN class=body></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV align=left><SPAN class=body-content><SPAN class=body-content><FONT class=bodySmall><SPAN class=body><STRONG><EM><FONT color=#0000ff>Zensar gets broader press coverage.</FONT></EM></STRONG> Kind of like watching a meme, a couple of non-Indian <A href="http://www.crmbuyer.com/story/news/36117.html">IT</A> <A href="http://www.computerweekly.com/articles/article.asp?liArticleID=132957&liArticleTypeID=1&liCategoryID=2&liChannelID=16&liFlavourID=1&sSearch=&nPage=1">trades</A> have picked up the Zensar/Broadengate announcement. See <A href="http://tinyurl.com/65afx">http://tinyurl.com/65afx</A> and <A href="http://tinyurl.com/3jh2r">http://tinyurl.com/3jh2r</A> .</SPAN></FONT></SPAN></SPAN></DIV> <DIV align=left><SPAN class=body-content><SPAN class=body-content><FONT class=bodySmall><SPAN class=body></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV align=left><SPAN class=body-content><SPAN class=body-content><FONT class=bodySmall><SPAN class=body><STRONG><EM><FONT color=#0000ff>"Rethinking the business case for Java."</FONT></EM></STRONG> A good <A href="http://www.javaworld.com/javaworld/jw-08-2004/jw-0823-business_p.html">article</A>. Hmmm ... maybe not much of a case, eh? <IMG src="http://us.i1.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/mesg/tsmileys2/03.gif"> Hey, I'm still a believer. See <A href="http://tinyurl.com/5hbcn">http://tinyurl.com/5hbcn</A> . Of course, Java programming ain't what it used to be ...</SPAN></FONT></SPAN></SPAN></DIV> <DIV align=left><SPAN class=body-content><SPAN class=body-content><FONT class=bodySmall><SPAN class=body></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV align=left><SPAN class=body-content><SPAN class=body-content><FONT class=bodySmall><SPAN class=body><STRONG><EM><FONT color=#0000ff>"The selling of SOA."</FONT></EM></STRONG> <A href="http://www.line56.com/articles/default.asp?ArticleID=5901">Two</A>-<A href="http://www.line56.com/articles/default.asp?ArticleID=5906">part</A> series in <EM>Line56.</EM> SUPERB!! (I prefer the singular to the plural, i.e., "architecture" versus "architectures"; personal preference.) Reviews various viewpoints on SOA. See <A href="http://tinyurl.com/6xqdn">http://tinyurl.com/6xqdn</A> and <A href="http://tinyurl.com/6tw9o">http://tinyurl.com/6tw9o</A> .</SPAN></FONT></SPAN></SPAN></DIV> <DIV align=left><SPAN class=body-content><SPAN class=body-content><FONT class=bodySmall><SPAN class=body></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV align=left><SPAN class=body-content><SPAN class=body-content><FONT class=bodySmall><SPAN class=body><STRONG><FONT color=#ff0000>Urls update.</FONT></STRONG> Expect to see lots and lots of stuff on software engineering and development. Great stuff, too!! Later this week.</SPAN></FONT></SPAN></SPAN></DIV> <DIV align=left><SPAN class=body-content><SPAN class=body-content><FONT class=bodySmall><SPAN class=body></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></SPAN> </DIV> <DIV align=left>Cheers,</DIV></DIV> <DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>David Scott Lewis</DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV><EM>President & Principal Analyst</EM></DIV> <DIV>IT E-Strategies, Inc.</DIV> <DIV>Menlo Park, CA & Qingdao, China</DIV> <DIV><STRONG><A href="http://tinyurl.com/6xeue">e-mail</A></STRONG>: click on <A href="http://tinyurl.com/6xeue">http://tinyurl.com/6xeue</A></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.itestrategies.com/" target=_blank>http://www.itestrategies.com</A> (current blog postings optimized for MSIE6.x) </DIV> <DIV><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa</A> (access to blog content archives in China)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2azkh">http://tinyurl.com/2azkh</A> (current blog postings for viewing in other browsers and for access to blog content archives in the US & ROW)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/chinasourcingalert">http://feeds.feedburner.com/chinasourcingalert</A> (RSS feed)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://chinasourcing.blogspot.com/atom.xml" target=_blank>http://chinasourcing.blogspot.com/atom.xml</A> (Atom feed)</DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#0000ff><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2hg2e">http://tinyurl.com/2hg2e</A></FONT> (AvantGo channel)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle">http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle</A> (Furl)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle/rss.xml">http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle/rss.xml</A> (Furl RSS feed)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV></DIV> <DIV><STRONG>To automatically subscribe click on <A href="http://tinyurl.com/388yf" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/388yf</A> .</STRONG></DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV>David Scott Lewishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06551889503905976812noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7295715.post-1094052815070535572004-09-01T23:33:00.000+08:002004-09-01T23:33:35.070+08:00[urls] Web Services Differentiation with Service Level Agreements<DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV>Wednesday, September 1, 2004</DIV> <DIV><EM><STRONG>Dateline: China</STRONG></EM></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV> <DIV>The following is a sampling of my top ten "urls" for the past couple/few weeks. By signing up with <A href="http://www.furl.net/">Furl</A> (it's <STRONG>free</STRONG>), anyone can subscribe to an e-mail feed of ALL my urls (about 100-250 per week) -- AND limit by <U>subject</U> (e.g., ITO) and/or <U>rating</U> (e.g., articles rated "Very Good" or "Excellent"). It's also possible to receive new urls as an RSS feed. However, <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>if you'd like to receive a daily feed of my urls but do NOT want to sign up with Furl, I can manually add your name to my daily Furl distribution list</FONT></STRONG>. (And if you want off, I'll promptly remove your e-mail address.)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Verdana color=#ff0000><FONT size=3>Top Honors:</FONT> </FONT></STRONG></DIV> <DIV><STRONG></STRONG> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG>*<!--StartFragment --></STRONG> <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=763551"><STRONG>Web Services Differentiation with Service Level Agreements</STRONG></A>, courtesy of IBM T.J. Watson; as the title suggests, this paper <STRONG>tackles SLAs.</STRONG> See also <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=763535"><B>Web Services QoS: External SLAs and Internal Policies</B></A>, by the same author. The latter paper was the invited keynote at the<!--StartFragment --> <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=763601"><B>1st Web Services Quality Workshop</B></A> (this site provides links to abstracts for all the workshop papers as well as links to each author's personal site).</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG><FONT face=verdana><FONT color=#ff0000 size=3>Other best new selections (in no particular order):</FONT></FONT></STRONG></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>*<!--StartFragment --> <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=763474"><B>Product Focused Software Process Improvement: PROFES 2004</B></A> (<STRONG><FONT color=#ff0000>if you're going to read only one tech book this year, let it be </FONT></STRONG><STRONG><FONT color=#ff0000>this!!</FONT></STRONG>)</DIV> <DIV>* <STRONG>Legacy systems strike back!!</STRONG> We all know that there is a good market in servicing legacy systems. See the following: <!--StartFragment --><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=750919"><B>Arriba: Architectural Resources for the Restructuring and Integration of Business Application</B></A> (an introduction),<!--StartFragment --> <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=754249"><B>Identifying Problems in Legacy Software</B></A>, and<!--StartFragment --> <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=754273"><B>Evolution of Legacy Systems</B></A>. </DIV> <DIV>* <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=662738"><STRONG>Online Communities in Business: Past Progress, Future Directions</STRONG></A>,<!--StartFragment --> <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=730436"><B>Five Keys To Building Business Relationships Online</B></A> and<!--StartFragment --> <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=730435"><B>Advantages of Using Social Software for Building Your Network</B></A>. (I can say with a fairly high level of confidence that these tools can be used to expand your business network. Been there, done that. Give it a try. <STRONG>Do I already know you and would you like an invitation to join LinkedIn? If the answer to both questions is "yes," let me know ...)</STRONG></DIV> <DIV>*<!--StartFragment --> <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=754103"><B>Carnegie Mellon Project Aura Video</B></A> (gets a bit silly at times, but the language translation component was interesting to see; the R-T example is still years away, but the idea is intriguing and this is where collaboration tools need to go)</DIV> <DIV>*<!--StartFragment --> <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=730343"><B>Innovation: Strategy for Small Fish</B></A> (from the Harvard Business School; however, NVIDIA would not have been my choice for a case study)</DIV> <DIV>*<!--StartFragment --> <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=717943"><B>Stata Labs: Managing at a Distance, for Less</B></A> (a pretty good case study; <STRONG>I firmly believe that China's systems integrators/contract developers need world-class collaboration tools and this describes one of the formats I support</STRONG>)</DIV> <DIV>*<!--StartFragment --> <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=750634"><B>An Authoring Technology for Multidevice Web Applications</B></A> (one of my favorite topics -- and an area where I believe SIs in China can take the lead)</DIV> <DIV>*<!--StartFragment --> <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=762435"><B>Cheapware</B></A> (or, "Changsha Gone Wild!!"; hey <STRONG>Qilu clan, are you listening? Go, Ding, go!!</STRONG>)</DIV> <DIV>*<!--StartFragment --> <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=680282"><B>How To Team With A Vendor</B></A> (a "must read" -- and evidently a lot of my readers already did, even though I only made a passing reference in a previous posting)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV> <DIV>Examples of urls that didn't make my "Top Ten List":</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><!--StartFragment --><!--StartFragment --><STRONG>></STRONG><!--StartFragment --> <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=747805"><B>ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet</B></A> (looks like this might be a great series; less biased than the typical IT advisory services report -- and a much better value, too)</DIV> <DIV><STRONG>><!--StartFragment --></STRONG> <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=750898"><STRONG>Software Cost Reduction</STRONG></A> (courtesy of the <U.S.> Naval Research Lab, this paper is a bit dated, but still worth reading; addresses problems with large-scale systems, albeit a bit light on practical examples) </DIV> <DIV><STRONG>></STRONG> <STRONG><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=717847">Japan IT Outsourcing 2004-2008 Forecast: IDC</A></STRONG> (might be a worthwhile purchase, especially for the Dalian-based systems integrators)</DIV> <DIV><STRONG>> <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=747634">The Power of No</A></STRONG> (Linux as a bargaining tool <see my Furl comments, too>; make Microsoft shake in their boots!!)</DIV> <DIV><STRONG>> <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=733699">Web Design Practices</A></STRONG> (a good reference site)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV> <DIV>and many, many more ...</DIV></DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV> <DIV> <DIV>Cheers,</DIV></DIV> <DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>David Scott Lewis</DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV><EM>President & Principal Analyst</EM></DIV> <DIV>IT E-Strategies, Inc.</DIV> <DIV>Menlo Park, CA & Qingdao, China</DIV> <DIV><STRONG><A href="http://tinyurl.com/6xeue">e-mail</A></STRONG>: click on <A href="http://tinyurl.com/6xeue">http://tinyurl.com/6xeue</A></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.itestrategies.com/" target=_blank>http://www.itestrategies.com</A> (current blog postings optimized for MSIE6.x) </DIV> <DIV><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa</A> (access to blog content archives in China)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2azkh">http://tinyurl.com/2azkh</A> (current blog postings for viewing in other browsers and for access to blog content archives in the US & ROW)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/chinasourcingalert">http://feeds.feedburner.com/chinasourcingalert</A> (RSS feed)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://chinasourcing.blogspot.com/atom.xml" target=_blank>http://chinasourcing.blogspot.com/atom.xml</A> (Atom feed)</DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#0000ff><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2hg2e">http://tinyurl.com/2hg2e</A></FONT> (AvantGo channel)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle">http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle</A> (Furl)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle/rss.xml">http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle/rss.xml</A> (Furl RSS feed)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV></DIV> <DIV><STRONG>To automatically subscribe click on <A href="http://tinyurl.com/388yf" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/388yf</A> .</STRONG></DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV>David Scott Lewishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06551889503905976812noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7295715.post-1092367622573074612004-08-13T11:27:00.000+08:002004-08-13T11:27:02.573+08:00[news] "2004 State of Application Development"<DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV>Friday, August 13, 2004</DIV> <DIV><EM><STRONG>Dateline: China</STRONG></EM></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Special issues of journals and magazines are often quite good -- if you're into the subject matter. But the current issue of <A href="http://www.varbusiness.com/sections/main/2004soad.jhtml"><STRONG><EM>VARBusiness</EM></STRONG></A> is absolutely SUPERB!! <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>EVERY SYSTEMS INTEGRATOR SHOULD READ IT ASAP</FONT></STRONG> -- <STRONG><FONT color=#ff0000>STOP WHAT YOU'RE DOING AND READ THIS ISSUE!!</FONT></STRONG> (<STRONG><FONT color=#ff0000>Or, at the very least, read the excerpts which follow</FONT></STRONG>.) See <A href="http://tinyurl.com/6smzu">http://tinyurl.com/6smzu</A><!--StartFragment --> . They even have the survey results to 36 questions ranging from change in project scope to preferred verticals. In this posting, I'm going to comment on excerpts from this issue. <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>My comments are in blue. </FONT><FONT color=#000000>Bolded excerpted items are MY emphasis.</FONT></STRONG></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#0000ff>The lead article and cover story is titled,</FONT> "<A href="http://www.varbusiness.com/article/showArticle.jhtml?articleId=26805583"><FONT color=#bf00bf>The App-Dev Revolution</FONT></A>." "<!--StartFragment --><FONT face=arial,helvetica size=2>Of the solution providers we surveyed, <STRONG>72 percent say they currently develop custom applications or tailor packaged software for their customers</STRONG>. Nearly half (45 percent) of their 2003 revenues came from these app-dev projects, and nearly two-thirds of them expect the app-dev portion of total revenue to increase during the next 12 months." <FONT color=#0000ff>I view this as good news for China's SIs;<STRONG> <FONT face=arial>from what I've observed, many SIs in China would be a good fit for SIs in the U.S. looking for partners to help lower their development costs</FONT>.</STRONG></FONT> <!--StartFragment -->"<FONT face=arial,helvetica size=2>By necessity, <STRONG>today's solution providers are becoming nimbler in the software work they do, designing and developing targeted projects like those that solve regulatory compliance demands, such as HIPAA, or crafting wireless applications that let doctors and nurses stay connected while they roam hospital halls</STRONG>." <STRONG><FONT color=#8000ff><FONT color=#0000ff>Have a niche; don't try to be everything to </FONT></FONT><FONT color=#0000ff>everyone.</FONT></STRONG> "Nine in 10 of survey respondents said their average app-dev projects are completed in less than a year now, with <STRONG>the smallest companies (those with less than $1 million in revenue) finishing up in the quickest time, three months, on average</STRONG>." <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>Need for speed.</FONT></STRONG> "<!--StartFragment --><FONT face=arial,helvetica size=2>The need to get the job done faster for quick ROI might explain the growing popularity of Microsoft's .Net framework and tools. <STRONG>In our survey, 53 percent of VARs said they had developed a .Net application in the past 12 months, and 66 percent of them expect to do so in the coming 12 months</STRONG>." <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>My Microsoft build-to-their-stack strategy.</FONT></STRONG> "</FONT><!--StartFragment --><FONT face=arial,helvetica size=2>Some of the <STRONG>hottest project areas</STRONG> they report this year include <STRONG>application integration</STRONG>, which 69 percent of VARs with between $10 million or more in revenue pinned as their busiest area. Other top development projects center around </FONT><FONT face=arial,helvetica size=2><STRONG>e-commerce applications, CRM, business-intelligence</STRONG> solutions, <STRONG>enterprisewide portals</STRONG> and <STRONG>ERP</STRONG>, ..." <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>How many times have I said this? </FONT></STRONG> <IMG src="http://us.i1.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/mesg/tsmileys2/04.gif"> "<!--StartFragment --><FONT face=arial,helvetica size=2>At the same time, <STRONG>VARs in significant numbers are</STRONG> tapping open-source tools and <STRONG>exploiting Web services and XML to help cut down on expensive software-integration work</STRONG>; in effect, acknowledging that application development needs to be more cost-conscious and, thus, take advantage of open standards and reusable components. Our survey found that 32 percent of VARs had developed applications on Linux in the past six months, while 46 percent of them said they plan to do so in the next six months. The other open-source technologies they are using today run the gamut from databases and development tools to application servers." <FONT color=#0000ff>I guess there's really an open source strategy.</FONT> <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>I come down hard on open source for one simple reason: I believe that SIs in China could get more sub-contracting business from a build-to-a-stack strategy.</FONT></STRONG> <FONT color=#0000ff>And building to the open source stack isn't building to a stack at all!!</FONT> "<!--StartFragment --><FONT face=arial,helvetica size=2>As a business, it has many points of entry and areas of specialization. Our survey participants first arrived in the world of app dev in a variety of ways, from bidding on app-dev projects (45 percent) to <STRONG>partnering with more experienced developers and VARs (28 percent)</STRONG> to hiring more development personnel (31 percent)." <FONT color=#0000ff>For SIs</FONT><FONT color=#0000ff> in China, simply responding to end-user RFQs is kind of silly.</FONT> <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>Better to partner on a sub-contracting basis.</FONT></STRONG> "<!--StartFragment --><FONT face=arial,helvetica size=2>According to our State of Application Development survey, health care (36 percent), retail (31 percent) and manufacturing (30 percent) ranked as the most popular vertical industries for which respondents are building custom applications. Broken down further, among VARs with less than $1 million in total sales, retail scored highest, while health care topped the list of midrange to large solution providers." <FONT color=#0000ff>Because of regulatory issues, I'm not so keen on health care. <STRONG>I'd go with manufacturing followed by retail.</STRONG> My $ .02. </FONT> "<!--StartFragment --><FONT face=arial,helvetica size=2>When it comes to partnering with the major platform vendors, Microsoft comes out the hands-on winner among ISVs and other development shops. <STRONG>A whopping 76 percent of developers in our survey favored the Microsoft camp.</STRONG> Their level of devotion was evenly divided among small, midsize and large VARs who partner with Microsoft to develop and deliver their application solutions. </FONT><FONT face=arial,helvetica size=2>By contrast, <STRONG>the next closest vendor is IBM, with whom one in four VARs said they partner.</STRONG> Perhaps unsurprisingly, the IBM percentages were higher among the large VAR category (those with sales of $10 million or more), with 42 percent of their partners coming from that corporate demographic. Only 16 percent of smaller VARs partner with IBM, according to the survey. The same goes for Oracle: One-quarter of survey respondents reported partnering with the Redwood Shores, Calif.-based company, with 47 percent of them falling in the large VAR category. </FONT><FONT face=arial,helvetica size=2>On the deployment side, half of the developers surveyed picked Windows Server 2003/.Net as the primary platform to deliver their applications, while IBM's WebSphere application server was the choice for 7 percent of respondents. BEA's WebLogic grabbed 4 percent, and Oracle's 9i application server 3 percent of those VARs who said they use these app servers as their primary deployment vehicle." <FONT color=#0000ff><STRONG>Microsoft, Microsoft, Microsoft</STRONG>. Need I say more? </FONT><FONT color=#bf00bf>See </FONT><A href="http://tinyurl.com/45z94"><FONT color=#bf00bf>http://tinyurl.com/45z94</FONT></A><FONT color=#bf00bf> .</FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#0000ff>The next article is on</FONT> <A href="http://www.varbusiness.com/nl/exadvisor/showArticle.jhtml?articleId=26805596"><FONT color=#bf00bf>open source</FONT></A>. "<STRONG>W</STRONG><FONT face=arial,helvetica size=2><STRONG>ant a world-class database with all the bells and whistles for a fraction of what IBM or Oracle want? There's MySQL. How about a compelling alternative to WebSphere or WebLogic? Think JBoss.</STRONG> These are, obviously, the best-known examples of the second generation of open-source software companies following in the footsteps of Apache, Linux and other software initiatives, but there are far more alternatives than these. </FONT><FONT face=arial,helvetica size=2><STRONG>Consider Zope, a content-management system downloaded tens of thousands of times per month free of charge</STRONG>, according to Zope CEO Rob Page. Some believe Zope and applications built with Zope are better than the commercial alternative they threaten to put out of business, Documentum. <STRONG>Zope is also often used to help build additional open-source applications. One such example is Plone, an open-source information-management system</STRONG>. </FONT><FONT face=arial,helvetica size=2><STRONG>What began as a fledgling movement at the end of the past decade and later became known as building around the "LAMP stack" (LAMP is an acronym that stands for Linux, Apache, MySQL and PHP or Perl) has exploded to virtually all categories of software.</STRONG> That includes security, where <STRONG>SpamAssassin is battling spam and Symantec</STRONG>, too. Popular? Well, it has now become an Apache Software Foundation official project. <!--StartFragment --><FONT face=arial,helvetica size=2><STRONG>The use of open source is so widespread that the percentage of solution providers who say they partner with MySQL nearly equals the percentage who say they partner with Oracle"23 percent to 25 percent, respectively</STRONG>.</FONT>" <FONT color=#0000ff>There are plenty of choices for those SIs willing to play the open source game. </FONT><FONT color=#bf00bf>See </FONT><A href="http://tinyurl.com/4e3c7"><FONT color=#bf00bf>http://tinyurl.com/4e3c7</FONT></A><FONT color=#bf00bf> .</FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#bf00bf></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#000000>"<A href="http://www.varbusiness.com/nl/exadvisor/showArticle.jhtml?articleId=26805597"><FONT color=#bf00bf>It's all about integration</FONT></A>" <FONT color=#0000ff>follows</FONT>. "<!--StartFragment --><FONT face=arial,helvetica size=2>There are many reasons for the surge in application-development projects (the recent slowdown in software spending notwithstanding). For one, many projects that were put on hold when the downturn hit a few years ago are now back <STRONG>in play</STRONG>. That <STRONG>includes enterprise-portal projects, supply-chain automation efforts, various e-commerce endeavors and the integration of disparate business systems</STRONG>." <FONT color=#0000ff>Choose carefully, however. Balance this data with other data. <STRONG>Right now, I see a lot more play with portals and EAI.</STRONG> </FONT> "<!--StartFragment --><FONT face=arial,helvetica size=2>Indeed, the need for quality and timely information is a key driver of investments in application-integration initiatives and the implementation of database and business-intelligence software and portals. A healthy majority of solution providers say application integration is a key component of the IT solutions they are deploying for customers. According to our application-development survey, <STRONG>60 percent say their projects involved integrating disparate applications and systems during the past 12 months</STRONG>." "<!--StartFragment --><FONT face=arial,helvetica size=2><STRONG>Some customers are moving beyond enterprise-application integration to more standards-based services-oriented architectures (SOAs).</STRONG> SOAs are a key building block that CIOs are looking to build across their enterprises." <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>Anyone who regularly reads any one of my three IT-related blogs knows that I'm gung-ho on SOAs</FONT></STRONG>. "<!--StartFragment --><FONT face=arial,helvetica size=2>Even if your customers are not looking for an SOA, integrating different systems is clearly the order of the day. To wit, even those partners that say enterprise portals or e-business applications account for the bulk of their business note that the integration component is key." <FONT color=#0000ff>Yes, <STRONG>integration, integration, integration</STRONG>. I'll be saying this next year, too. And the year after ...</FONT> "<!--StartFragment --><FONT face=arial,helvetica size=2><STRONG>Another way to stay on top of the competition is to participate in beta programs</STRONG>." <FONT color=#0000ff><STRONG>Absolutely true</STRONG> -- and a good strategy, too.</FONT> <FONT color=#bf00bf>See </FONT><A href="http://tinyurl.com/6x2gg"><FONT color=#bf00bf>http://tinyurl.com/6x2gg</FONT></A> .</FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#0000ff>The next article is on</FONT> <A href="http://www.varbusiness.com/nl/exadvisor/showArticle.jhtml?articleId=26805601&printableArticle=true"><FONT color=#bf00bf>utility computing versus packaged software</FONT></A>. <FONT color=#0000ff>Again, if you read what I write, you know that I'm also gung-ho on utility computing</FONT>. "<!--StartFragment --><FONT face="geneva,ms sans serif,helvetica" size=2>According to <EM>VARBusiness'</EM> survey of application developers, more than 66 percent of the applications created currently reside with the customer, while 22 percent of applications deployed are hosted by the VAR. And <STRONG>a little more than 12 percent of applications developed are being hosted by a third party</STRONG>. <!--StartFragment --> <FONT face="geneva,ms sans serif,helvetica" size=2>Where services have made their biggest inroads as an alternative to software is in applications that help companies manage their customer and sales information.</FONT>" <FONT color=#0000ff><STRONG>The article goes on to state that apps that are not mission-critical have the best chance in the utility computing space.</STRONG> Time will tell. <STRONG>Take note, however, that these are often the apps that will most likely be outsourced to partners in China. </STRONG></FONT>"<!--StartFragment --><FONT face="geneva,ms sans serif,helvetica" size=2>Simply creating services from scratch and then shopping them around isn't the only way to break into this area. NewView Consulting is expanding its services business by starting with the client and working backward. The Porter, Ind.-based security consultant takes whatever technology clients have and develops services for them based on need." </FONT> <FONT color=#0000ff>And <STRONG>focus on services businesses and .NET</STRONG>, too.</FONT> "<!--StartFragment --><FONT face="geneva,ms sans serif,helvetica" size=2>Most application developers agree that services revenue will continue to climb for the next year or two before they plateau, resulting in a 50-50 or 60-40 services-to-software mix for the typical developer. The reason for this is that while applications such as CRM are ideally suited to services-based delivery, there are still plenty of other applications that companies would prefer to keep in-house and that are often dependent on the whims of a particular company." <FONT color=#0000ff>Still, <STRONG>such a split shows a phenomenal rise in the importance of utility computing offerings</STRONG>.</FONT> </FONT> <FONT color=#bf00bf>See </FONT><A href="http://tinyurl.com/54blv"><FONT color=#bf00bf>http://tinyurl.com/54blv</FONT></A> .</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face="ms sans serif"></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#0000ff>Next up:</FONT> <A href="http://http://www.varbusiness.com/nl/exadvisor/showArticle.jhtml?articleId=26805605&printableArticle=true"><FONT color=#bf00bf>Microsoft wants you!!</FONT></A> <FONT color=#0000ff>(Replace the image of Uncle Sam with the image of Bill Gates!!) Actually, the article isn't specifically about Microsoft. </FONT><FONT color=#000000>"<!--StartFragment --><FONT face="geneva,ms sans serif,helvetica" size=2>Microsoft is rounding up as many partners as it can and is bolstering them with support to increase software sales. The attitude is: Here's our platform; go write and prosper. IBM's strategy, meanwhile, is strikingly different. While it, too, has created relationships with tens of thousands of ISVs over recent years, IBM prefers to handpick a relatively select group, numbering approximately 1,000, and develop a hand-holding sales and marketing approach with them in a follow-through, go-to-market strategy." <FONT color=#0000ff><STRONG>Both are viable strategies, but NOT both at the same time!! </STRONG></FONT>"<!--StartFragment --><FONT face="geneva,ms sans serif,helvetica" size=2>To be sure, the results of VARBusiness' 2004 State of Application Development survey indicates that Microsoft's strategy makes it the No. 1 go-to platform vendor among the 472 application developers participating in the survey. In fact, more than seven out of 10 (76 percent) said they were partnering with Microsoft to deliver custom applications for their clients. That number is nearly three times the percentage of application developers (26 percent) who said they were working with IBM</FONT> ..." <FONT color=#0000ff>Percentages as follows: <FONT color=#ff0000>Microsoft, 76%; IBM, 26%; Oracle, 25%; MySQL, 23%; Red Hat, 17%; Sun, 16%; Novell, 11%; BEA, 9%</FONT>. I<STRONG> said BOTH, NOT ALL. Think Microsoft and IBM. However, a Java strategy could be BOTH a Sun AND IBM strategy (and even a BEA strategy).</STRONG> <FONT color=#bf00bf>See </FONT><A href="http://tinyurl.com/68grf"><FONT color=#bf00bf>http://tinyurl.com/68grf</FONT></A></FONT><FONT color=#bf00bf> .</FONT></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>There was another article I liked called, "How to Team With A Vendor," although it's not part of the app-dev special section <EM>per se.</EM> This posting is too long, so I'll either save it for later or now note that it has been urled. See <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=680282">http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=680282</A> . Also a kind of funny article on turning an Xbox into a Linux PC. See <A href="http://tinyurl.com/4mhn6">http://tinyurl.com/4mhn6</A> . See also <A href="http://www.xbox-linux.org/">http://<!--StartFragment --><FONT face=arial,helvetica size=2>www.xbox-linux.org</A></FONT> .</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Quick note: I'll be in SH and HZ most of next week, so I may not publish again until the week of the 23rd.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Cheers,</DIV></DIV> <DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>David Scott Lewis</DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV><EM>President & Principal Analyst</EM></DIV> <DIV>IT E-Strategies, Inc.</DIV> <DIV>Menlo Park, CA & Qingdao, China</DIV> <DIV><STRONG><A href="http://tinyurl.com/6xeue">e-mail</A></STRONG>: click on <A href="http://tinyurl.com/6xeue">http://tinyurl.com/6xeue</A></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.itestrategies.com/" target=_blank>http://www.itestrategies.com</A> (current blog postings optimized for MSIE6.x) </DIV> <DIV><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa</A> (access to blog content archives in China)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2azkh">http://tinyurl.com/2azkh</A> (current blog postings for viewing in other browsers and for access to blog content archives in the US & ROW)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/chinasourcingalert">http://feeds.feedburner.com/chinasourcingalert</A> (RSS feed)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://chinasourcing.blogspot.com/atom.xml" target=_blank>http://chinasourcing.blogspot.com/atom.xml</A> (Atom feed)</DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#0000ff><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2hg2e">http://tinyurl.com/2hg2e</A></FONT> (AvantGo channel)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle">http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle</A> (Furl)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle/rss.xml">http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle/rss.xml</A> (Furl RSS feed)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV></DIV> <DIV><STRONG>To automatically subscribe click on <A href="http://tinyurl.com/388yf" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/388yf</A> .</STRONG></DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV>David Scott Lewishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06551889503905976812noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7295715.post-1092318262207474862004-08-12T21:44:00.000+08:002004-08-12T21:44:22.206+08:00[urls] Build a Better Enterprise Application<DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV>Thursday, August 12, 2004</DIV> <DIV><EM><STRONG>Dateline: China</STRONG></EM></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV> <DIV>The following is a sampling of my top ten "urls" for the past week or so. By signing up with Furl (it's <STRONG>free</STRONG>), anyone can subscribe to an e-mail feed of ALL my urls (about 100-250 per week) -- AND limit by <U>subject</U> (e.g., ITO) and/or <U>rating</U> (e.g., articles rated "Very Good" or "Excellent"). It's also possible to receive new urls as an RSS feed. However, <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>if you'd like to receive a daily feed of my urls but do NOT want to sign up with Furl, I can manually add your name to my daily Furl distribution list</FONT></STRONG>. (And if you want off, I'll promptly remove your e-mail address.)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Verdana color=#ff0000><FONT size=3>Top Honors:</FONT> </FONT></STRONG></DIV> <DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Verdana color=#ff0000></FONT></STRONG> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG>*<!--StartFragment --></STRONG> <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=656634"><STRONG>Build a Better Enterprise Application</STRONG></A> (<STRONG>on Web services and SOA; great review of all the pertinent issues</STRONG>)</DIV> <DIV><FONT face=Verdana color=#ff0000><!--StartFragment --></FONT><FONT face=Verdana color=#ff0000><FONT color=#000000><!--StartFragment --></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG><FONT face=verdana><FONT color=#ff0000 size=3>Other best new selections (in no particular order):</FONT></FONT></STRONG></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>*<!--StartFragment --> <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=636075"><B>Adaptive Document Layout via Manifold Content (PDF)</B></A> (another hit for Microsoft, this article proposes a user interface for authoring and editing Web content for different form factors; <STRONG>think formatting for ubiquitous devices and pervasive computing</STRONG>)</DIV> <DIV><!--StartFragment -->* <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=634786"><B>A New View on Intelligence (on XML & EII, et al)</B></A> (thoroughly enjoyable -- <STRONG>so good, I almost blogged it</STRONG>; <STRONG>insightful perspective</STRONG>)</DIV> <DIV><!--StartFragment -->* <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=653079"><B>InfoWorld Special Report: Has desktop Linux come of age?</B></A> (IMHO, a resounding "No!!" But there are other perspectives worth considering. I still think it's a lot of wishful thinking.)</DIV> <DIV>*<!--StartFragment --> <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=636087"><B>Negotiating in Service-Oriented Environments (PDF)</B></A> (A slightly annotated excerpt: "The concept of delivering software as a service is relatively simply: 'do not buy software, simply use it as and when you need it'. Putting such a concept into practice, however, is far more complex and involves many issues. In this article, <STRONG>we address the question: What are the characteristics of a market for software services?</STRONG>" Hot topic, good paper.)</DIV> <DIV>*<!--StartFragment --> <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=635904"><B>Real Time Means Real Change</B></A> (so much talk about the so-called "Real Time Enterprise"; <STRONG>this article takes a look at the realities behind the hype of the "RTE"</STRONG>)</DIV> <DIV><!--StartFragment -->* <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=640663"><B>Information Scent on the Web (PDF)</B></A> (Courtesy of PARC, you need to read this for yourself; Google as <EM>The Matrix</EM> idea -- worse yet, <EM>The Time Machine</EM> Reloaded <IMG style="WIDTH: 19px; HEIGHT: 18px" height=18 src="http://us.i1.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/mesg/tsmileys2/14.gif" width=19> In reality, <STRONG>useful perspectives for Web designers</STRONG>.)</DIV> <DIV><!--StartFragment -->* <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=656693"><B>Offshoring/Outsourcing: Fragile - Handle With Care</B></A> (a brief but rather comprehensive overview; <STRONG>points to the various aspects of ITO and BPO along the IT value chain</STRONG>)</DIV> <DIV><!--StartFragment -->* <A href="http://banktech.com/story/amLaundering/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=26805611"><B>IT Spending For Comprehensive Compliance</B></A> (original article linked; <STRONG>good review of the various opportunities "thanks" mostly to SOX</STRONG>)</DIV> <DIV>*<!--StartFragment --> <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=641307"><B>The Executive's Guide to Utility Computing - ROI of Utility Computing</B></A> (a broad perspective on utility computing, different from what is usually published)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV> <DIV>Examples of urls that didn't make my "Top Ten List":</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><!--StartFragment --><!--StartFragment --><STRONG>></STRONG> <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=656540"><STRONG>Benchmarking Study Shows 75 Percent of Enterprises Deploying Web Services</STRONG></A> (need I say more?; <STRONG>includes stats on ebXML and grid computing</STRONG>, too)</DIV> <DIV><STRONG>></STRONG> <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=636365"><STRONG>Probabilistic Model for Contextual Retrieval (PDF)</STRONG></A> (a sneak peek at Microsoft's emerging search technology?) See also <A href="http://research.microsoft.com/asia/dload_files/group/ims/21.pdf"><STRONG>Block-based Web Search</STRONG></A>, courtesy of Microsoft Research Asia (Beijing) and Tsinghua University, arguably China's best (the latter article is not urled; from the recent SIGIR conference). <STRONG>If you think Google is the last word in search, think again.</STRONG></DIV> <DIV><!--StartFragment --><STRONG>></STRONG> <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=656696"><B>Where To Find New Growth Prospects And What Challenges Need To Be Overcome</B></A> (necessary action items and preferred geographic regions; <STRONG>China <not Russia, Brazil or the Czech Republic> comes in the number two slot</STRONG> after North America)</DIV> <DIV><STRONG>> <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=653032">CIO Magazine: Are We Happy Yet? (on ITO and BPO)</A></STRONG> (dumb article title, but smart content; good metrics to consider, including a take on SLAs)</DIV> <DIV><!--StartFragment --><STRONG>></STRONG> <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=657302"><B>Developing Killer Apps for Industrial Augmented Reality (restricted access)</B></A> (<STRONG><A href="http://wwwnavab.in.tum.de/Chair/CGA"><FONT color=#ff0000>t<!--StartFragment -->his page</FONT></A></STRONG> provides some complimentary information to the restricted access selection, although it's not urled). I just noticed something: The apps section of <EM>IEEE CG&A</EM> is edited by two mil guys, one from the (U.S.) <A href="http://ait.nrl.navy.mil/">Office of Naval Research</A> and the other from the <A href="http://stricom.army.mil./">U.S. Army simulation and training office</A>. Hey, who says all the good engineering jobs are outsourced!? <IMG src="http://us.i1.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/mesg/tsmileys2/03.gif"> Frankly, I believe that the best American engineers can always find jobs within DoD or the intelligence community. Besides, they do all the truly fun computing stuff!! Trust me, there isn't so much fun stuff done at Oracle.<!--StartFragment --></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV> <DIV>and many, many more ...</DIV></DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV> <DIV> <DIV>Cheers,</DIV></DIV> <DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>David Scott Lewis</DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV><EM>President & Principal Analyst</EM></DIV> <DIV>IT E-Strategies, Inc.</DIV> <DIV>Menlo Park, CA & Qingdao, China</DIV> <DIV><STRONG><A href="http://tinyurl.com/6xeue">e-mail</A></STRONG>: click on <A href="http://tinyurl.com/6xeue">http://tinyurl.com/6xeue</A></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.itestrategies.com/" target=_blank>http://www.itestrategies.com</A> (current blog postings optimized for MSIE6.x) </DIV> <DIV><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa</A> (access to blog content archives in China)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2azkh">http://tinyurl.com/2azkh</A> (current blog postings for viewing in other browsers and for access to blog content archives in the US & ROW)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/chinasourcingalert">http://feeds.feedburner.com/chinasourcingalert</A> (RSS feed)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://chinasourcing.blogspot.com/atom.xml" target=_blank>http://chinasourcing.blogspot.com/atom.xml</A> (Atom feed)</DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#0000ff><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2hg2e">http://tinyurl.com/2hg2e</A></FONT> (AvantGo channel)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle">http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle</A> (Furl)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle/rss.xml">http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle/rss.xml</A> (Furl RSS feed)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV></DIV> <DIV><STRONG>To automatically subscribe click on <A href="http://tinyurl.com/388yf" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/388yf</A> .</STRONG></DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV>David Scott Lewishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06551889503905976812noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7295715.post-1092045217791477582004-08-09T17:53:00.000+08:002004-08-09T17:53:37.790+08:00[news] Excerpt from a McKinsey Paper on IT Spending Trends<DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV>Monday, August 9, 2004</DIV> <DIV><EM><STRONG>Dateline: China</STRONG></EM></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>I recently urled the abstract for this paper, but CNET and McKinsey were kind enough to post the full-text of the paper on the CNET news site (which downloads at glacial speed, at least from China). Now that the article from the current issue of <EM><A href="http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/">The McKinsey Quarterly</A></EM> is in the public domain, I'd like to include an excerpt in this posting. (Bolded and colored notations are MY emphasis.)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><!--StartFragment -->"Although IT customers also want to improve their software, they are wary of big-bang packaged applications--purchases that are just now rolling off accrual budgets. This time around, CIOs are shunning expensive panaceas, especially large-scale customer relationship management (CRM) systems. Many tech executives lost face (or jobs) when the promised benefits didn't materialize, often because the technology demanded difficult-to-realize changes in processes and in employee behavior. Even worse than buying packaged applications, CIOs told us, was buying applications and then customizing them, for this strategy made it necessary to reinvest in customization with each subsequent upgrade. CIOs now favor narrower, more-targeted, less-ambitious improvements that mitigate the risk of organizational rejection. <STRONG>Custom software that closely adheres to a company's existing processes (and therefore requires little or no process change) is popular, and so is software developed for a specific industry.</STRONG> Meanwhile, <STRONG>integration--a higher priority now than it was during the boom--is generating demand for enterprise application integration (EAI) technologies.</STRONG> <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>Web services are gaining traction faster than anticipated, especially in small telecom and other companies at the forefront of IT innovation. Of the CIOs we interviewed, 8 percent said that Web services were their primary integration strategy.</FONT></STRONG> Despite these inroads, most companies are still at the experimental stage with this technology, which demands advanced skills and a high degree of commitment from the IT organization. <STRONG>Others are choosing a different path: Roughly half of the CIOs we spoke with have been (or are thinking about) investing in integration broker software, often combined with Web services.</STRONG> Adoption is strongest among telecommunications and financial-services companies, whose technical complexity makes the software especially attractive. The third-party services market could feel the pinch, however. Many companies, spurred by lower IT salaries after the economic slowdown, hired talent and brought IT development in-house. These new hires often support and develop the more-customized applications that today's IT budgets favor. But this move could boomerang on companies in the future: The absence of vendor support could reduce economies of scale and push up costs. <STRONG>Offshoring in less-expensive labor markets could, of course, offset them</STRONG>."</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><U>ADDENDUM: Seeing Beyond "Traditional" Market Research ...</U></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>I've already received a few messages regarding my "Seeing Beyond" posting.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>One of the questions was very simple to answer. The question: <STRONG>Can you name a few ISVs in China which could develop a hosted version of their packaged software?</STRONG> Certainly. Simple answer: <A href="http://www.bamboonetworks.com/en/index.asp"><STRONG>Bamboo</STRONG></A>, <A href="http://global.kingdee.com/en/index.htm"><STRONG>Kingdee</STRONG></A>, <A href="http://www.ufsoft.com.cn/english/"><STRONG>UFSoft</STRONG></A> (all three are in the ERP space).</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>A reader also asked me about Fisher-Pry, having heard of this technique but not really familiar with it. In simple terms, <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>Fisher-Pry functions best as a substitution model</FONT></STRONG>. I'm not thrilled about using it to predict end of life and market size issues <EM>per se</EM>. <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>Where I find it useful -- EXTREMELY USEFUL -- is in determining when a NEW technology is likely to EMERGE</FONT></STRONG>. I then put on my Geoffrey Moore glasses to look at the technology from a chasm crossing perspective. And, if I'm really interested, I'll put on my Ed Roberts and Gordon Bell glasses -- and will evaluate the technology using other techniques as well. But Fisher-Pry itself is extremely simple to use and a Geoffrey Moore analysis is also a no-brainer. (Ed Roberts' -- and I'm the unofficial president of the Ed Roberts fan club -- various approaches to evaluating new markets and technologies requires me to fire a lot more neurons than Moore's approach.) To me, <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>Fisher-Pry is all about inflection points and EMERGING markets</FONT></STRONG>. <STRONG>To see an application of Fisher-Pry, read an </STRONG><A href="http://www.atkearney.com/shared_res/pdf/WiFi_Monograph_S.pdf"><STRONG>A.T. Kearney report on wireless futures</STRONG></A><STRONG> at </STRONG><A href="http://tinyurl.com/4zcas"><STRONG>http://tinyurl.com/4zcas</STRONG></A> (and it's an excellent report, too). See also a recent evaluation of the remote sensing market at <A href="http://tinyurl.com/6zxqm">http://tinyurl.com/6zxqm</A> . For a <A href="http://www.cob.sjsu.edu/yu_o/bus264/Technology%20Trend%20Analysis.htm">brief review of Fisher-Pry</A> and a couple of related techniques for technology trend analysis, see <A href="http://tinyurl.com/4hf7t">http://tinyurl.com/4hf7t</A> .</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><!--StartFragment --></DIV> <DIV>Finally, another reader questioned whether <A href="http://innovationfutures.com/bk/index.html">MIT's Innovation Futures market</A> was doomed to focus on short(er)-term "bets." My answer is that MIT may need to repackage Innovation Futures for addressing long(er)-term issues. Many of us in America can remember playing the stock market in one of our classes. For me, it was in my eighth grade government class. We had to pick stocks and trade them through the course of the year. Unfortunately, the very nature of this learning experience put a premium on trading versus investing. In other words, picking stocks which might be solid over a three-plus year time horizon simply wouldn't work; it was much better to "gamble" on high Beta (i.e., higher volatility) issues. Innovation Futures suffers from the same "need" to determine winners and losers on a relatively timely basis. Probably time horizons of three or more years won't suffice, at least not from a "gamblers" perspective (sans venture capitalists).</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>I'd like to see their system changed to allow different types of "players" and "traders," namely the crop I had suggested in my last posting, but also another class of "all others." <STRONG>Think of this as an experiment in social computing among technophiles, not online gambling</STRONG>. In some ways, it could reveal the type of knowledge that is found in the blogosphere.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV> <DIV> <DIV>Cheers,</DIV></DIV> <DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>David Scott Lewis</DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV><EM>President & Principal Analyst</EM></DIV> <DIV>IT E-Strategies, Inc.</DIV> <DIV>Menlo Park, CA & Qingdao, China</DIV> <DIV><STRONG><A href="http://tinyurl.com/6xeue">e-mail</A></STRONG>: click on <A href="http://tinyurl.com/6xeue">http://tinyurl.com/6xeue</A></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.itestrategies.com/" target=_blank>http://www.itestrategies.com</A> (current blog postings optimized for MSIE6.x) </DIV> <DIV><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa</A> (access to blog content archives in China)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2azkh">http://tinyurl.com/2azkh</A> (current blog postings for viewing in other browsers and for access to blog content archives in the US & ROW)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle">http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle</A> (Furl)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle/rss.xml">http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle/rss.xml</A> (Furl RSS feed)</DIV> <DIV> <DIV><STRONG></STRONG></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV>David Scott Lewishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06551889503905976812noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7295715.post-1091980730360680362004-08-08T23:58:00.000+08:002004-08-08T23:58:50.360+08:00[commentary] Seeing Beyond "Traditional" Market Research + A Golden Opportunity for China's ISVs<DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV>Sunday, August 8, 2004</DIV> <DIV><EM><STRONG>Dateline: China</STRONG></EM></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>More general commentary than news commentary <EM>per se;</EM> let's dig in ...</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><U>Seeing Beyond "Traditional" Market Research</U></DIV> <DIV><U></U> </DIV> <DIV>We're all familiar <EM>ad nauseum</EM> with market forecasts by firms such as Gartner, Forrester, IDC and even i-bankers (albeit i-bankers tend to have a shorter time horizon). I've always been a bit suspect of IT market forecasts and was delighted that the META Group (where I was VP, Electronic Business Strategies) focused on qualitative and consultative approaches to serving our end-user and vendor clients. We were more like a SWAT team version of McKinsey: Get in, get it done, get out, move on. <STRONG>The Kensington Group</STRONG>, an IT advisory services industry watchdog firm, <STRONG>has found that most forecasts are simply dead wrong</STRONG>. Frankly, it's hard to blame the IT advisory services: Forecasting is tough stuff!! Some of the firms claim that they are not producing forecasts, but are producing projections. Call it what you will: It's a forecast -- and it's usually wrong. (In defense of the IT advisory services, <STRONG>often the commentary which accompanies a forecast is quite useful</STRONG>. The forecast may be wrong, but often other issues are adequately -- and usefully -- addressed.)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>I've been a long-time proponent of more "advanced" forecasting techniques ranging from <STRONG>Delphi</STRONG> (pioneered by the RAND Corporation) to <STRONG>cellular automata</STRONG> to <STRONG>Lotka-Volterra</STRONG> (which in a plain vanilla and watered-down form was the basis of a lead article in an issue of <EM>Harvard Business Review</EM>) to the good 'ol <STRONG>Fisher-Pry</STRONG> technique -- and just about every flavor of forecasting in between. Not only do I read <EM>Technological Forecasting & Social Change</EM>, but I annually read numerous papers published in a few hundred engineering journals and in all ACM, IEEE and SPIE conference proceedings which cite a paper published in <EM>TF&SC</EM>. (Think CiteSeer.) And something relatively new has captured my attention; I want to share this with the readers of this blog/e-newsletter.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>MIT's<EM> Technology Review</EM></FONT></STRONG> has embarked on a interesting project called "<A href="http://innovationfutures.com/bk/index.html"><STRONG>Innovation Futures</STRONG></A>". (They may not view this as a "project," but it feels like a "project" to me.) There is a fair amount of history behind the project -- and some may recall the related DARPA fiasco last year -- but I'd like to stick specifically to the MIT project. To quote <EM>Technology Review</EM>, "<!--StartFragment --><STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>Innovation Futures is a predictive market system that enables technologyreview.com users to predict the outcome of events related to emerging technologies</FONT></STRONG>." Think of it as a futures and options market for emerging technologies -- NOT about companies, but about the underlying technologies. For example, rather than betting for or against Nanosys as a pure-play nano firm, a "player" (think "trader") can bet for or against a definable nano event (e.g., commercial devices produced using molecular self-assembly techniques with combined annual sales of at least $100 million by 2006). Something "easier" to phantom might be a bet that VoIP will be implemented in some form by at least 75% of G2000 companies by 2007. Think about this: <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>Which would give a better indicator of buying intentions, the MIT predictive market system or an IT advisory service forecast?</FONT></STRONG> I'll put my money on Innovation Futures or a clone. (Frankly, I'd put my money on other technological forecasting techniques. But <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>if the choice is between the MIT system or Gartner, I'll go with MIT</FONT></STRONG>. And the MIT market is a lot easier to follow than building a nonlinear model. Leave the tough stuff to Pugh-Roberts; leave the everyday stuff to Innovation Futures.)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>At this point, the MIT site doesn't have very much and most of what they have is focused on short(er)-term bets. But this will be very interesting to watch, especially as broader -- and long(er)-term -- issues are market tested. What happens when the marketing folks at IBM, Microsoft, Oracle, HP, Accenture, CSC, TCS, Infosys and SAP play? And when the members of the Global Business Network and their brethren play? And when IT advisory services analysts play? And, perhaps most importantly, when CIOs representing companies of all different sizes and from all parts of globe start to play? Food for thought. I'll keep this readership posted: I plan to have several long discussions with the folks running Innovation Futures. I have many specific ideas to share with them. For more information, see <A href="http://tinyurl.com/5bevb">http://tinyurl.com/5bevb</A> .<!--StartFragment --></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><U>A Golden Opportunity for China's ISVs</U></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>In the past I've talked about the opportunities for SIs (systems integrators) in China to work with utility computing vendors in the States. Well, I've given this a lot of thought and have another idea: <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>What about ISVs (independent software vendors) in China floating utility computing offerings in the States?</FONT></STRONG> As one example, let's take <A href="http://www.freecrm.com/">Free CRM</A> (see <A href="http://www.freecrm.com/">http://www.freecrm.com/</A> ). The totally free version seems a bit worthless, but gives a smaller firm a chance to play with the idea with very little risk. However, the "Professional" version is only $10 per month per user, far less than Salesforce.com's average of $70 per month per user. Okay, the "Professional" version of Free CRM (maybe they should call it "Cheap CRM" -- or some B-school grad might name it "Value-Driven CRM) certainly doesn't have the industrial strength features of Salesforce.com. However, <FONT color=#0000ff><STRONG>think a modified Pareto strategy: A good chuck of the functionality, but at a</STRONG> </FONT><FONT color=#0000ff><STRONG>fraction of the co</STRONG><STRONG>st</STRONG></FONT>. Add a few zingers like syncing for a PDA/smartphone and/or pages automatically "modified" to fit any form factor (see the current issue of <EM>CACM</EM> for a great article on this; hot research area and tomorrow's urls listing will include a link to a downloadable paper on this subject) and the offering from the ISV in China becomes incredibly -- perhaps irresistibly -- enticing. And guess what: At least in theory the platform could be leveraged for both the market in the States and in China. (I have some reservations about this, but it's theoretically doable.) BTW, the Free CRM solutions are NOT hosted, but for in-house initiatives. However, the same marketing principles apply in this analysis.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG>Bottom line: </STRONG><U>This is truly a golden opportunity for ISVs in China</U>. <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>Don't target the F1000; go after SMEs</FONT></STRONG>, perhaps the same firms that are normally targeted by the largest ISVs using telemarketing. (I'm not suggesting a telemarketing strategy; I'm simply segmenting the market in Oracle fashion.) <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>Think of a U.S. company with less than 500 employees</FONT></STRONG>. The world (well, at least the U.S. part of it) will be your oyster ...</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><U>China: A Hotbed for Management Consulting?</U></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>An interesting <A href="http://en.ce.cn/Insight/200408/02/t20040802_1389302.shtml">article</A> published on the China Economic Net site (in Chinglish, no less) kind of uses the phrase "management consulting" in a rather broad way. But when it gets to specifics, it's illuminating. First, there is the claim that "China has become the management consulting market with the most rapid growth rate." Not sure if this is really true, but it's certainly one of the more interesting markets. </DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>For specifics, BearingPoint is cited. Basically, they're bursting at the seams and projecting growth from about 1,000 today to 6,000 in 2008. CapGemini went the acquisition route. The average annual salary of a "good management consultant" is about US$40,000 -- a far cry from what a "good management consultant" makes in the States. And what do the consultants bring to the table? Well, this is where the article went from being written in English to Chinglish. But if I can make out what they mean, it's the ability for management consultants to help with implementation and operational issues. See <A href="http://tinyurl.com/43hlr">http://tinyurl.com/43hlr</A> .<!--StartFragment --></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG>Bottom line:</STRONG> <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>SIs in China should look to adding so-called "management consulting" services to their offerings</FONT></STRONG>. I am NOT suggesting a massive move in this direction, but a selected approach. Also, <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>China's SIs should look to partner with Western management consulting firms already in or planning to enter China</FONT></STRONG>. On the one hand, the BearingPoints of the world make good partners, especially for sub-contracting work. On the other hand, the BCGs of the world are more complimentary and not directly competitive. Have a strategy and plan for dealing with both types of management consulting firms, i.e., the strategy firms with a stake in IT (e.g., @McKinsey) and the IT consultancies/SIs with a strategy play (e.g., IGS, Accenture, ...).</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><U>What I'm Reading (and Why I Didn't Post as Often as Usual Last Week)</U></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>The new proceedings for SIGIR04 are out and I've been sifting through dozens of papers. Google seems like child's play compared to what is brewing. However, I have it on good authority that Google is brewing many of the same things. But so is Microsoft. In the future, we all benefit.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV> <DIV> <DIV>Cheers,</DIV></DIV> <DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>David Scott Lewis</DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV><EM>President & Principal Analyst</EM></DIV> <DIV>IT E-Strategies, Inc.</DIV> <DIV>Menlo Park, CA & Qingdao, China</DIV> <DIV><STRONG><A href="http://tinyurl.com/6xeue">e-mail</A></STRONG>: click on <A href="http://tinyurl.com/6xeue">http://tinyurl.com/6xeue</A></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.itestrategies.com/" target=_blank>http://www.itestrategies.com</A> (current blog postings optimized for MSIE6.x) </DIV> <DIV><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa</A> (access to blog content archives in China)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2azkh">http://tinyurl.com/2azkh</A> (current blog postings for viewing in other browsers and for access to blog content archives in the US & ROW)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/chinasourcingalert">http://feeds.feedburner.com/chinasourcingalert</A> (RSS feed)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://chinasourcing.blogspot.com/atom.xml" target=_blank>http://chinasourcing.blogspot.com/atom.xml</A> (Atom feed)</DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#0000ff><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2hg2e">http://tinyurl.com/2hg2e</A></FONT> (AvantGo channel)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle">http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle</A> (Furl)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle/rss.xml">http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle/rss.xml</A> (Furl RSS feed)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV></DIV> <DIV><STRONG>To automatically subscribe click on <A href="http://tinyurl.com/388yf" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/388yf</A> .</STRONG></DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV>David Scott Lewishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06551889503905976812noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7295715.post-1091451255712154402004-08-02T20:54:00.000+08:002004-08-02T20:54:15.713+08:00[urls] Top 10 Urls: 25 July-1 August 2004<DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV>Monday, August 2, 2004</DIV> <DIV><EM><STRONG>Dateline: China</STRONG></EM></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV> <DIV>The following is a sampling of my "urls" for the past eight days. By signing up with Furl (it's <STRONG>free</STRONG>), anyone can subscribe to an e-mail feed of ALL my urls (about 150-350 per week) -- AND limit by <U>subject</U> (e.g., ITO) and/or <U>rating</U> (e.g., articles rated "Very Good" or "Excellent"). It's also possible to receive new urls as an RSS feed. However, <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>if you'd like to receive a daily feed of my urls but do NOT want to sign up with Furl, I can manually add your name to my daily Furl distribution list</FONT></STRONG>. (And if you want off, I'll promptly remove your e-mail address.)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG><FONT size=3><FONT face=verdana><FONT color=#ff0000>Best new selections (in no particular order):</FONT></FONT></FONT></STRONG></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG>* </STRONG><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=612730"><STRONG>A Web Services Choreography Scenario for Interoperating Bioinformatics Applications</STRONG></A> (<STRONG>SUPERB</STRONG>, covering all the bases; might serve as the foundation for a blog posting)</DIV> <DIV><STRONG>* </STRONG><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=631807"><STRONG>ICC Report: Software Focus, June 2004 issue</STRONG></A> (if you're not familiar with this monthly newsletter from <EM>Red Herring</EM>, it's worth scanning; this particular issue is their "annual" on enterprise software)</DIV> <DIV><STRONG>* </STRONG><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=629023"><STRONG>Northeast Asia: Cultural Influences on the U.S. National Security Strategy</STRONG></A> (this might serve as the basis for a blog posting; EXCELLENT, broad-based review of cultural issues)</DIV> <DIV><STRONG>* </STRONG><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=616904"><STRONG>Economics of an Information Intermediary with Aggregation Benefits</STRONG></A> (think B2B and e-markets, although the implications are wide-ranging)</DIV> <DIV><STRONG>* </STRONG><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=615294"><STRONG>Top 10 Usability Blunders of the Big Players</STRONG></A></DIV> <DIV><STRONG>* </STRONG><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=615128"><STRONG>How to Increase Your Return on Your Innovation Investment</STRONG></A> (provides a link to an article published in the current issue of <EM>Harvard Business Review</EM>; good food for thought)</DIV> <DIV><STRONG>* </STRONG><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=612740"><STRONG>From Information Retrieval to Information Interaction</STRONG></A> (ideas for life beyond search)</DIV> <DIV><STRONG>* </STRONG><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=634447"><STRONG>Why Mobile Services Fail</STRONG></A> (insights from Howard Rheingold)</DIV> <DIV><STRONG>* </STRONG><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=612639"><STRONG>A Global Power Shift in the Making (on China, from <EM>Foreign Affairs</EM>)</STRONG></A></DIV> <DIV><STRONG>* </STRONG><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=633568"><STRONG>Anything That Promotes ebXML Is Good</STRONG></A> (lots of good links; I'm an ebXML advocate, so the tone of this article is one which I fully support)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV> <DIV>Examples of urls that didn't make my "Top Ten List":</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG>> </STRONG><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=631743"><STRONG>Grid Computing: Industry Standards and Business Benefits (webcast)</STRONG></A></DIV> <DIV><STRONG>> </STRONG><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=615417"><STRONG>Product Lifecycle Management Automation is Vital to Innovation, Yet Only Half of Consumer Firms Effectively Apply It, Says Aberdeen Group Study</STRONG></A></DIV> <DIV><STRONG>> </STRONG><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=633567"><STRONG>RightNow, Sierra Atlantic Announce Partnership to Deliver Enterprise CRM Integration</STRONG></A> (a trend in the making; I've talked about this quite a bit, i.e., systems integrators working with utility computing vendors)</DIV> <DIV><STRONG>> </STRONG><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=634463"><STRONG>August 2009: How Google beat Amazon and Ebay to the Semantic Web</STRONG></A></DIV> <DIV><STRONG>> </STRONG><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=633531"><STRONG>China vs. India in IT Offshoring</STRONG></A></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV> <DIV>and many, many more ...</DIV></DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV> <DIV> <DIV>Cheers,</DIV></DIV> <DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>David Scott Lewis</DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV><EM>President & Principal Analyst</EM></DIV> <DIV>IT E-Strategies, Inc.</DIV> <DIV>Menlo Park, CA & Qingdao, China</DIV> <DIV><STRONG><A href="http://tinyurl.com/6xeue">e-mail</A></STRONG>: click on <A href="http://tinyurl.com/6xeue">http://tinyurl.com/6xeue</A></DIV> <DIV><A href="mailto:DavidScottLewis.2520656@bloglines.com"><STRONG>e-mail</STRONG></A>: click on <A href="http://tinyurl.com/3mbzq">http://tinyurl.com/3mbzq</A> (temporary, until Gmail resolves their problems; I haven't been able to access my Gmail messages for the past week)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.itestrategies.com/" target=_blank>http://www.itestrategies.com</A> (current blog postings optimized for MSIE6.x) </DIV> <DIV><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa</A> (access to blog content archives in China)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2azkh">http://tinyurl.com/2azkh</A> (current blog postings for viewing in other browsers and for access to blog content archives in the US & ROW)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/chinasourcingalert">http://feeds.feedburner.com/chinasourcingalert</A> (RSS feed)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://chinasourcing.blogspot.com/atom.xml" target=_blank>http://chinasourcing.blogspot.com/atom.xml</A> (Atom feed)</DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#0000ff><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2hg2e">http://tinyurl.com/2hg2e</A></FONT> (AvantGo channel)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle">http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle</A> (Furl)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle/rss.xml">http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle/rss.xml</A> (Furl RSS feed)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV></DIV> <DIV><STRONG>To automatically subscribe click on <A href="http://tinyurl.com/388yf" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/388yf</A> .</STRONG></DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV>David Scott Lewishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06551889503905976812noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7295715.post-1091423667454248332004-08-02T13:14:00.000+08:002004-08-02T13:14:27.453+08:00[news] Cognizant & the "Intelligent Internet" + a Peek at 2005 IT Budgets (Part 2 of 2)<DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV>Sunday, August 1, 2004</DIV> <DIV><EM><STRONG>Dateline: China</STRONG></EM></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Ah, the World Future Society. Much to say about the WFS, but I'll save it for the end of this post. An article which appears in the <A href="http://www.wfs.org/futcontma04.htm">March-April 2004 issue of <EM>The Futurist</EM></A> was reprinted in a recent issue of <A href="http://www.gcn.com/vol1_no1/daily-updates/26338-1.html"><EM>Government Computer News</EM></A> (see <A href="http://tinyurl.com/yrp2w">http://tinyurl.com/yrp2w</A> ); the <A href="http://administracion.uexternado.edu.co/centros/pensamiento/matdi/Intelligent.pdf">original paper</A> which was the basis for <EM>The Futurist</EM> article is also available (see <A href="http://tinyurl.com/5ymos">http://tinyurl.com/5ymos</A> ). The article focuses heavily on findings from the <A href="http://www.techcast.org/">TechCast Project at George Washington University</A> (see <A href="http://www.techcast.org/">http://www.techcast.org</A> ; BTW, they're seeking beta testers).</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>The article acknowledges hype during the bubble, but goes on to indicate that <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>20 commercial aspects of Internet use should reach 30% "take-off" adoption levels over the next several years</FONT></STRONG> -- and will rejuvenate the (American) economy. One area of particular interest is a "conversational" human-computer interface, called "TeleLiving," based on advances in speech recognition, AI, hardware/grid computing, virtual environments and flat wall monitors. (Sounds like stuff out of PARC and Microsoft Research.)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Their Project results "<STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>portray a striking scenario in which the dominate forms of e-commerce - <FONT color=#ff0000><U>broadband</U>, <U>business-to-business</U> (B2B), online finance, <U>entertainment-on-demand</U>, <U>wireless</U>, e-training, knowledge-on-demand, electronic public services, online publishing, <U>e-tailing</U></FONT> - grow from their present 5%-20% adoption levels to 30% between 2004 and 2010</FONT></STRONG>. TechCast considers the 30% penetration level significant because this roughly marks the 'take-off point' when technologies move from their early-adopter phase into the mainstream, where they permeate economic and social life." (Think of chasm crossing. Also think of expeditionary marketing within the context of broadband. BTW, bolded and colored items are MY emphasis.)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>The authors discuss the notion that many think that the Internet is already mainstream, yet challenge that notion by stating that this is true only for nonpaying use, citing surfing for free information as one example. "As of 2003, commercial operations involving monetary exchange were limited to about 23% for broadband, 10% for e-tailing, 12% for B2B, 10% for distance learning, and 5% for music. And these are the most popular Internet applications. Others hardly register in adoption levels at all." <STRONG>Bottom line: </STRONG> It's all about e-commerce, I guess. Jerry Maguire said it best. <IMG src="http://us.i1.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/mesg/tsmileys2/03.gif"></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><U><STRONG><FONT size=3>A Look at 2005 IT Spending</FONT></STRONG></U> </DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Not as much as I had originally hoped for in the Forrester glimpse at 2005 IT budgets, but some things to note. (See <A href="http://tinyurl.com/67pse">http://tinyurl.com/67pse</A> .) Example: 52% of finance and insurance firms -- led by insurers -- will spend more on IT in 2005. Okay, <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>sounds like an opportunity for SIs (systems integrators) building .NET solutions. (For those who don't know, Microsoft has fairly strong solutions for the insurance vertical.)</FONT></STRONG> At the subvertical level, media and nongovernment public sector plays look good, whereas the utilities and transportation sectors look weak. Also, Siebel and PeopleSoft customers are planning to spend more on IT relative to customers of other key vendors, most notably SAP. (I don't see this, but I don't dispute their data. Frankly, I think we'll see a lot of activity for SAP SIs in 2005. P'Soft is too hard to tell, especially with the confusion caused by Oracle. Oracle benefits whether the acquisition goes through or not!! It's the FUD factor.)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Not to be outdone, AMR came out with their peek at 2005 budgets for SMEs (small and medium enterprises). (See <A href="http://tinyurl.com/5vlvo">http://tinyurl.com/5vlvo</A> . I got a lot more out of the AMR report.) Something that is rather common knowledge among IT analysts, but may not be known by those not involved in the IT budgeting process, is that a typical large U.S. manufacturer spends 2% of its annual revs (i.e., revenues) on IT and a large service firm spends 5%. However, the average for U.S. SMEs is 6.4% of revs, although a good chunk is for basic IT infrastructure.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#0000ff><STRONG>CRM looks like a hot item for U.S. SMEs</STRONG></FONT> and the AMR report makes an interesting comment about the perceived need for other countries to implement a "keeping up with the Joneses" strategy. This being said, then domestic firms in China may follow suit. <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>As far as operating systems are concerned, there is only one: Windows</FONT></STRONG>. And U.S. SMEs spend about 20% of their IT budget on software and software maintenance, with <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>discrete manufacturers outspending process manufacturers or retailers</FONT></STRONG>. Typical apps are for financial management and customer management, although expensive CRM suites (think Siebel or Oracle) are rare. Sounds like <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>an opportunity for utility computing vendors</FONT></STRONG>. <STRONG>Bottom line:</STRONG> <STRONG><FONT color=#ff0000>If the SMEs market is your key market (by size), then go with Microsoft CRM solutions!</FONT></STRONG></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><U>Fast Forward Over Three Decades</U></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>At this point, I'm going to get a bit personal. If you're not interested, simply skip the remainder of this message: It briefly covers three decades and my so-called "futurist" origins.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV> <DIV>The first "adult" organization I ever joined was the World Future Society. (Remember, the basis for the first section of this posting was an article published in their flagship publication, <EM>The Futurist</EM>.) The year was 1971. I had been an adolescent "futurist" since March 1968, the month that my father bought me a copy of <EM>Sky & Telescope</EM> magazine. Although the Vietnam War was on the news each night, I was simply too young for it to really matter. Both the war and protests against the war were merely uninspiring TV images.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>But something caught my imagination and that "something" was the space program. I can still recall the liftoff of Apollo 11 on July 16, 1969 at 6:32 am PDT. Believe it or not, I can still recite the countdown. I can also recite part of the landing sequence of the Eagle -- the Lunar Excursion Module housing Neil Armstrong and Edwin E. "Buzz" Aldrin. And, of course, I can remember Neil Armstrong stepping off the foot of the LEM on July 20th, probably around 7 or 7:30 pm. Two movies also inspired me toward a "tech" future: The obvious, <EM>2001: A Space Odyssey</EM>, and the not-so-obvious, <EM>The Andromeda Strain</EM>. (My parents didn't let me stay up to watch <EM>Star Trek</EM>, so <EM>Star Trek</EM> didn't have any impact on my life during my early adolescence.) Although I have been a member of the L-5 Society and the British Interplanetary Society (anyone remember Project Daedalus?), the World Future Society was the most influential organization in my life during my high school years. Well, a wee bit of personal history. Those were the good 'ol days ...</DIV></DIV></DIV> <DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Cheers,</DIV></DIV> <DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>David Scott Lewis</DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV><EM>President & Principal Analyst</EM></DIV> <DIV>IT E-Strategies, Inc.</DIV> <DIV>Menlo Park, CA & Qingdao, China</DIV> <DIV><STRONG><A href="http://tinyurl.com/6xeue">e-mail</A></STRONG>: click on <STRONG><A href="http://tinyurl.com/4nr9h">http://tinyurl.com/4nr9h</A></STRONG></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.itestrategies.com/" target=_blank>http://www.itestrategies.com</A> (current blog postings optimized for MSIE6.x) </DIV> <DIV><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa</A> (access to blog content archives in China)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2azkh">http://tinyurl.com/2azkh</A> (current blog postings for viewing in other browsers and for access to blog content archives in the US & ROW)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/chinasourcingalert">http://feeds.feedburner.com/chinasourcingalert</A> (RSS feed)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://chinasourcing.blogspot.com/atom.xml" target=_blank>http://chinasourcing.blogspot.com/atom.xml</A> (Atom feed)</DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#0000ff><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2hg2e">http://tinyurl.com/2hg2e</A></FONT> (AvantGo channel)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle">http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle</A> (Furl)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle/rss.xml">http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle/rss.xml</A> (Furl RSS feed)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV></DIV> <DIV><STRONG>To automatically subscribe click on <A href="http://tinyurl.com/388yf" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/388yf</A> .</STRONG></DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV>David Scott Lewishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06551889503905976812noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7295715.post-1090770178342398712004-07-25T23:42:00.000+08:002004-07-25T23:42:58.343+08:00[urls] Top 10 Urls of the Week: A Taste of Furl<DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV>Sunday, July 25, 2004</DIV> <DIV><EM><STRONG>Dateline: China</STRONG></EM></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV> <DIV>The following is a sampling of my "urls" for the past week. By signing up with Furl (it's <STRONG>free</STRONG>), anyone can subscribe to an e-mail feed of my urls -- and limit by <U>subject</U> AND <U>rating</U>. It's also possible to receive an RSS feed. However, <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>if you'd like to receive a daily feed of my urls but do NOT want to sign up with Furl, I can manually add your name to my daily Furl distribution list</FONT></STRONG>. (And if you want off, I'll promptly remove your e-mail address.)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Briefly, over the past week I added over 300 urls to my "goldentriange" Furl account. In the editing process, I whittled down the number to nearly 60 in my first pass and then deleted about 50 more urls to create "Dave's Top Ten (Urls) List" (of the week). Think about it: Only one in 30 made the grade.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>For one thing, I've excluded ALL sites referenced in any of my three blogs. Also, ALL "dated" items with short shelf-life were cut (such as news stories), although over two-thirds of the "urled" pages over the past week were news-related. (My assumption is that everyone already has their favorite news sources.) OTOH, I didn't want to include items which are a bit too research-focused, either. Truly a delicate balance.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Enjoy -- and please zap me your feedback! And, if you'd like to receive the daily feed (which includes news items), please let me know.</DIV></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>* <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=585946"><B>A Fitting Use for Web Services Technology</A></B></DIV> <DIV><STRONG>* <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=585869"><B>Grid Tools: Coming to a Cluster Near You</A></B></STRONG></DIV> <DIV><STRONG>* <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=585751"><B>ROI Calculators - Nucleus Research</A></B></STRONG></DIV> <DIV><STRONG>* <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=583603"><B>Verticals To Grow By--And To Avoid</A></B></STRONG></DIV> <DIV><STRONG>* <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=571720"><B>A BPEL Primer</A></B></STRONG></DIV> <DIV><STRONG>* <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=559819"><B>Getting IT Right - An Approach to Managing IT Complexity</A></B></STRONG></DIV> <DIV><STRONG>* <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=609118"><B>Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods</A></B></STRONG></DIV> <DIV><STRONG>* <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=586341"><B>The Next Big Thing: Adaptive Web-Based Systems</A></B></STRONG></DIV> <DIV><STRONG>* <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=556555"><B>Time for a Redesign: Dr. Jakob Nielsen</A></B></STRONG></DIV> <DIV><STRONG>* <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=583444"><B>Google circa 1960</A></B></STRONG></DIV> <DIV><STRONG></STRONG> </DIV> <DIV>Examples of urls that didn't make my "Top Ten List":</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG>> </STRONG><A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=583241"><STRONG>GLOBAL SECURITIES INDUSTRY IT SPENDING</STRONG></A></DIV> <DIV><STRONG>> <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=583266"><B>Top Tech Trends (from PC Magazine)</A></B></STRONG></DIV> <DIV><STRONG>> <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=585906"><B>'We see global, offshore outsourcing converging' (Cognizant)</A></B></STRONG></DIV> <DIV><STRONG>> <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=586353"><B>The Eclipse Web and J2EE Tools Platform Project is Now Live</A></B></STRONG></DIV> <DIV><STRONG>> <A href="http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=609143"><B>The Virtual Debugging System for Embedded Software Development</A></B></STRONG></DIV> <DIV><STRONG></STRONG> </DIV> <DIV>and many, many more ...</DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV> <DIV> <DIV>Cheers,</DIV></DIV> <DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>David Scott Lewis</DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV><EM>President & Principal Analyst</EM></DIV> <DIV>IT E-Strategies, Inc.</DIV> <DIV>Menlo Park, CA & Qingdao, China</DIV> <DIV><STRONG><A href="http://tinyurl.com/6xeue">e-mail</A></STRONG>: click on <A href="http://tinyurl.com/6xeue">http://tinyurl.com/6xeue</A></DIV> <DIV><A href="mailto:DavidScottLewis.2520656@bloglines.com"><STRONG>e-mail</STRONG></A>: click on <A href="http://tinyurl.com/3mbzq">http://tinyurl.com/3mbzq</A> (temporary, until Gmail resolves their problems; I haven't been able to access my Gmail messages for the past week)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.itestrategies.com/" target=_blank>http://www.itestrategies.com</A> (current blog postings optimized for MSIE6.x) </DIV> <DIV><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa</A> (access to blog content archives in China)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2azkh">http://tinyurl.com/2azkh</A> (current blog postings for viewing in other browsers and for access to blog content archives in the US & ROW)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/chinasourcingalert">http://feeds.feedburner.com/chinasourcingalert</A> (RSS feed)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://chinasourcing.blogspot.com/atom.xml" target=_blank>http://chinasourcing.blogspot.com/atom.xml</A> (Atom feed)</DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#0000ff><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2hg2e">http://tinyurl.com/2hg2e</A></FONT> (AvantGo channel)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle">http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle</A> (Furl)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle/rss.xml">http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle/rss.xml</A> (Furl RSS feed)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV></DIV> <DIV><STRONG>To automatically subscribe click on <A href="http://tinyurl.com/388yf" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/388yf</A> .</STRONG></DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV>David Scott Lewishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06551889503905976812noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7295715.post-1090562747232235942004-07-23T14:05:00.000+08:002004-07-23T14:05:47.233+08:00[emerging tech] "Web Engineering: The Evolution of New Technologies" & the Ultimate Killer App<DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV>Friday, July 23, 2004</DIV> <DIV><EM><STRONG>Dateline: China</STRONG></EM></DIV> <DIV><STRONG><EM></EM></STRONG> </DIV> <DIV><EM><STRONG>Reviews of papers from the current (July/August 2004) issue of <FONT color=#0000ff>Computing in Science & Engineering</FONT>, special issue on "Web Engineering: The Evolution of New Technologies." To <A href="http://csdl.computer.org/comp/mags/cs/2004/04/c4toc.htm" target=_blank><FONT color=#0000ff>order articles from this issue</FONT></A>, first click on <A href="http://tinyurl.com/5ktaw" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/5ktaw</A> .</STRONG></EM></DIV> <DIV><STRONG><EM></EM></STRONG> </DIV> <DIV>Earlier this week I posted excerpts from the lead article in the current issue of <EM>CiSE.</EM> The article was titled, "Managing XML Data: An Abridged Overview," which is a good, accurate title. The excerpts contain useful links, too. </DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>I am going to take a variety of approaches for handling four other papers in this special issue. However, I first want to provide a <A href="http://www.computer.org/cise/v6n4/gei.htm" target=_blank><FONT color=#0000ff>link to the introduction to this special issue</FONT></A>, i.e., <A href="http://tinyurl.com/6sbjx" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/6sbjx</A> . The intro itself provides a few useful references and links.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>The second article is titled, "Information Retrieval Techniques for Peer-to-Peer Networks." Fortunately, a full-text PDF copy of this paper can be accessed at either <A href="http://dblab.cs.ucr.edu/" target=_blank><FONT color=#0000ff>http://dblab.cs.ucr.edu/</FONT></A> or <A href="http://tinyurl.com/6v2ru" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/6v2ru</A>, although the URL for the former looks a little bit too generic and might change at a moment's notice (also, the two papers are slightly different). I have 19 bookmarks on my smartphone for this paper, but I guess <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>I can summarize by saying that IR for P2P networks is hard and very different from "traditional" search</FONT></STRONG>. <U><STRONG>The last statement actually says a lot -- read between the lines</STRONG></U>. This paper covers all the usual suspects and also includes Skype. This paper is based upon the <A href="http://www.cs.ucr.edu/~csyiazti/msc.html" target=_blank>lead author's Master's thesis</A> which can be accessed from <A href="http://tinyurl.com/696ml" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/696ml</A> . <A href="http://www.cs.ucr.edu/~csyiazti/publications.html" target=_blank>Other papers by the lead author</A> can be accessed at <A href="http://tinyurl.com/43kkh" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/43kkh</A> . This is an important issue which needs to be resolved, especially as collaborative grid computing (CGC) comes to life.</DIV> <DIV><STRONG><EM><FONT color=#0000ff></FONT></EM></STRONG> </DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#0000ff><EM><STRONG>Two figures; 20 references (28 references in the preprint).</STRONG></EM></FONT></DIV> <DIV><STRONG><EM><FONT color=#0000ff></FONT></EM></STRONG> </DIV> <DIV>Less luck with the paper titled, "Web Searching and Information Retrieval," i.e., I couldn't find a free copy on the Web. The author's site is woefully outdated, too. The author does speak favorably of a particular approach to decentralized P2P web crawling called "Apoidea." A copy of a paper describing <A href="http://www.cc.gatech.edu/~aameek/publications/apoidea-sigir03.pdf" target=_blank><FONT color=#0000ff>Apoidea</FONT></A> can be accessed at <A href="http://tinyurl.com/4m2v5" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/4m2v5</A> ; <A href="http://disl.cc.gatech.edu/Apoidea/Apoidea.ppt" target=_blank>accompanying slides</A> can be accessed at <A href="http://tinyurl.com/4b4sh" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/4b4sh</A> . As described in the <EM>CiSE</EM> paper, "Apoidea is both self-managing and uses the resource's geographical proximity to its peers for a better and faster crawl."</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#0000ff><EM><STRONG>Two figures; 21 references.</STRONG></EM></FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG>To request a copy of this article click on: </STRONG><A href="http://tinyurl.com/7yyl2" target=_blank><STRONG>http://tinyurl.com/7yyl2</STRONG></A> or <A href="http://tinyurl.com/6m6ff" target=_blank><STRONG>http://tinyurl.com/6m6ff</STRONG></A> (I'm not sure which address works; I already have a copy of this article so I don't need to contact the author!).</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>"Web Mining: Research and Practice" is not available, either, but a lot of excellent info on the senior author's projects related to this paper is available. First, take a look at the <A href="http://research.ebiquity.org/v2.1/research/?EBS=28bedf9e1771ae67d68b77397f846d5d" target=_blank><FONT color=#0000ff>eBiquity research areas</FONT></A> at <A href="http://tinyurl.com/52p9n" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/52p9n</A> . Next, you may want to take a look at the abstracts for <A href="http://research.ebiquity.org/v2.1/papers/" target=_blank><FONT color=#0000ff>papers published</FONT></A> as part of the eBiquity Group at <A href="http://tinyurl.com/5om58" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/5om58</A> (current through December 2004 -- it doesn't get more current!!). Move on to their <A href="http://research.ebiquity.org/v2.1/research/area/id/9/?EBS=28bedf9e1771ae67d68b77397f846d5d" target=_blank><FONT color=#0000ff>"Semantic Web" page</FONT></A> at <A href="http://tinyurl.com/4a8fr" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/4a8fr</A> . I then downloaded a PDF copy of their paper titled, "<A href="http://research.ebiquity.org/v2.1/get/a/publication/94.pdf?EBS=28bedf9e1771ae67d68b77397f846d5d" target=_blank>Mining Domain Specific Texts and Glossaries to Evaluate and Enrich Domain Ontologies</A>" (see <A href="http://tinyurl.com/3lg2m" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/3lg2m</A> ). It looks like a relatively recent paper, newer than the <EM>CiSE</EM> paper (different authors and different subject matter, though). The PDF is part of their Semantic Web research, whereas the <EM>CiSE</EM> paper is more "generic." Anyway, <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>the "Web Mining" paper is another call for distributed mining techniques</FONT></STRONG>, and covers fuzzy clustering as well as content-based recommender systems -- but doesn't forget good 'ol HITS (Hyperlink-Induced Topic Search), the basis for IBM's Clever and Google (to a certain extent).</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#0000ff><EM><STRONG>No figures; 31 references.</STRONG></EM></FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG>To request a copy of this article click on: <A href="http://tinyurl.com/5xv3p" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/5xv3p</A> .</STRONG></DIV></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Finally, "Intelligent Agents on the Web: A Review" was very disappointing. The lead author has impeccable credentials, but his paper is based on yesterday's news: Old, outdated, buried stuff (like Firefly). Matter of fact, the only live link I can recall finding was Recursion Software's <A href="http://www.recursionsw.com/voyager.htm" target=_blank><FONT color=#0000ff>"Voyager" home page</FONT></A> (see <A href="http://tinyurl.com/3wpem" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/3wpem</A> ), which states that the "Voyager applications development platform provides the software layer which handles communications across the network for distributed JAVA applications." (Looks interesting.)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>I did a little more digging and surfed over to two stand-by sites (both referenced directly or indirectly in the "Intelligent Agents" paper), namely the MIT Media Lab Software Agents page and Oren Etzioni's (oops, I mean the University of Washington, Department of Computer Science) page. At the <A href="http://agents.media.mit.edu/projects.html" target=_blank><FONT color=#0000ff>MIT projects page</FONT></A> (see <A href="http://tinyurl.com/4ocss" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/4ocss</A> ) is a listing of several "commonsense" projects, e.g., "<A href="http://agents.media.mit.edu/projects/semanticweb/" target=_blank><FONT color=#0000ff>Using Commonsense Reasoning to Enable the Semantic Web</FONT></A>" (see <A href="http://tinyurl.com/4deq7" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/4deq7</A> ). A <A href="http://agents.media.mit.edu/projects/semanticweb/semanticweb_whitepaperdraft.doc" target=_blank><FONT color=#0000ff>draft White Paper</FONT></A> on this is available at <A href="http://tinyurl.com/4e4bv" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/4e4bv</A> , as is a <A href="http://agents.media.mit.edu/projects/semanticweb/CSRSemanticWeb.ppt" target=_blank><FONT color=#0000ff>presentation</FONT></A> at <A href="http://tinyurl.com/4le2n" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/4le2n</A> along with a couple of video demos. I also downloaded <A href="http://agents.media.mit.edu/projects/goose/AH2002-goose.pdf" target=_blank><FONT color=#0000ff>a paper on GOOSE</FONT></A> (GOal-Oriented Search Engine) at <A href="http://tinyurl.com/4fyeu" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/4fyeu</A> . At UWash I went to their <A href="http://data.cs.washington.edu/xml/" target=_blank><FONT color=#0000ff>XML data management page</FONT></A> (see <A href="http://tinyurl.com/5x98a" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/5x98a</A> ) and then grabbed two papers: One on "<A href="ftp://ftp.cs.washington.edu/tr/2004/06/UW-CSE-04-06-05.pdf" target=_blank><FONT color=#0000ff>Probabilistic Methods For Querying Global Information Systems</FONT></A>" dated 14 July 2004 (see <A href="http://tinyurl.com/45uz7" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/45uz7</A> ) and another titled, "<A href="ftp://ftp.cs.washington.edu/tr/2004/05/UW-CSE-04-05-01.pdf" target=_blank><FONT color=#0000ff>Learning Text Patterns for Web Information Extraction and Assessment</FONT></A>" dated May 2004 (see <A href="http://tinyurl.com/6k5fz" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/6k5fz</A> ). (To download other unrestricted reports, go to <A href="http://tinyurl.com/5z2x7" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/5z2x7</A> .) Frankly, I need a bit of time to digest the two recently published UWash papers.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>As the chair of the Internet and Web applications session of the First International Conference on Autonomous Agents (1996), I have a soft spot for agent-oriented everything (especially Web apps). I remember an old saying from IJCAI (International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence) in the mid-70's: <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>Artificial intelligence is better than none</FONT></STRONG>. (I probably still have a button with this saying somewhere.) I'm keeping the faith, sans the hype and more toward the realities of software agents. BTW, this <EM>CiSE</EM> paper isn't bad if you don't have any background in this space. It covers the basics, such as ACLs, but with an "updated" perspective.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#0000ff><EM><STRONG>No figures; 27 references.</STRONG></EM></FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG>To request a copy of this article click on: <A href="http://tinyurl.com/6zzqs" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/6zzqs</A> .</STRONG></DIV> <DIV><STRONG></STRONG> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG></STRONG> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG><U><FONT color=#ff0000>The Ultimate Killer App</FONT></U></STRONG></DIV> <DIV><STRONG></STRONG> </DIV> <DIV>BTW, the "Ultimate Killer App" is attached and in some browsers it will automatically download. (See the bottom of this message.) You have to admit, this <STRONG><EM>really</EM></STRONG> is the ultimate killer app!!</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>I've never sent an attachment this way simultaneously to both my e-newsletter and blogs (and blog variants). Just in case the attachment isn't included, I've uploaded it to the "Photos" section of the e-newsletter (see <A href="http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa</A> .)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV></DIV> <DIV>>> Note to <EM>AlwaysOn</EM> readers: You'll need to go to the e-newsletter ( <A href="http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa</A> ) in order to see the "Ultimate Killer App." You can try the blogs, but no guarantees.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><U>Tidbits on Enterprise Software</U></DIV> <DIV><U></U> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG>.NET wins converts.</STRONG> For the <A href="http://www.crn.com/sections/breakingnews/breakingnews.jhtml?articleId=22104047" target=_blank><EM>VARBusiness story</EM></A> see <A href="http://tinyurl.com/3omd2" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/3omd2</A> . Evans Data reports that .NET usage showed a sharp YoY increase in adoption with 52% saying they use .NET and 68% saying they plan to deploy .NET apps by 2005. In May, Forrester reported that <STRONG>56% of developers consider .NET their primary development environment contrasted with 44% for J2EE</STRONG>. (It must have been a binary choice!) <EM>VARBusiness</EM> found in a May survey that 53% have already deployed a .NET app and 66% plan to do so within the next 12 months. In the <EM>VARBusiness</EM> survey, the most important reasons for going with .NET were ease of use and quicker time to market. A developer goes on to state that .NET development time is to Java what Java is to C++. (Wow, what a claim!)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.iona.com/hyplan/vinoski/pdfs/IEEE-Dark_Matter_Revisited.pdf" target=_blank><STRONG>Python and Perl beat Java</STRONG></A>? (See <A href="http://tinyurl.com/44m5t" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/44m5t</A> for the PDF file.) Actually, an indirect "attack" against all "mainstream" programming languages, notably Java, C and C++. The idea is that the "mainstream" languages are ill-suited for many distributed computing and integration apps. <STRONG>Gives a "thumbs up" to Python, Perl and PHP</STRONG>, with a peek at PEAK -- the Python Enterprise Application Kit. (Sorry for the pun.) PEAK's developers claim future superiority over J2EE. They also knock Java for not being suited to rapid application development. PEAK's developers believe a Python-based approach to component-based apps will result in systems that are simpler, faster and easier to install, manage and maintain than variants in J2EE. PEAK, however, is still immature.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG><A href="http://www.tekrati.com/T2/Analyst_Research/ResearchAnnouncementsDetails.asp?Newsid=3075" target=_blank>Grid computing takes off</A></STRONG>. Another survey from Evans Data (see <A href="http://tinyurl.com/4l2qb" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/4l2qb</A> ). <STRONG>37% of database developers are implementing or planning to implement a grid computing architecture</STRONG>. In related data, 34% of companies are focusing their database development work on BI (business intelligence) platforms. See also <A href="http://www.informationweek.com/story/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=23901953&tid=5994" target=_blank>Oracle's spin on this</A> at <A href="http://tinyurl.com/4n2kf" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/4n2kf</A> .</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG><A href="http://www2.cio.com/analyst/report2628.html" target=_blank>The spoils of ROI</A></STRONG>. From IDC's Group VP, Solutions Research, there are several issues which must be addressed in order to maximize IT ROI. (See <A href="http://tinyurl.com/228kv" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/228kv</A> .) Four of the key issues are:</DIV> <UL> <LI>Should the IT agenda include investment in <STRONG>outsourcing</STRONG> technologies or services? <LI>Does the future of the business include operations in, or electronic trade with, additional countries - <STRONG>China</STRONG>, for example? <LI>Are the services of an outside provider being considered to help in managing proliferating applications or complex <STRONG>"interenterprise" business relationships</STRONG>? <LI>What role will <STRONG>utility computing</STRONG> play in the future of IT?</LI></UL> <DIV>(All items in bold are my emphasis.) The article goes on to discuss various ways of evaluating ROI, including one of my favorite ways, ROA (<STRONG>real options analysis</STRONG>). </DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>TTFN. Have a GREAT weekend!</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Cheers,</DIV></DIV> <DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>David Scott Lewis</DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV><EM>President & Principal Analyst</EM></DIV> <DIV>IT E-Strategies, Inc.</DIV> <DIV>Menlo Park, CA & Qingdao, China</DIV> <DIV><STRONG><A href="http://tinyurl.com/6xeue" target=_blank><FONT color=#0000ff>e-mail</FONT></A></STRONG>: click on <A href="http://tinyurl.com/58rbd" target=_blank><STRONG>http://tinyurl.com/58rbd</STRONG></A></DIV> <DIV><STRONG>WARNING</STRONG>: To avoid spam (well, to avoid getting at least some spam), I'm using a Gmail account with a special address. However, I have NOT been able to access the messages in my Gmail account for the past FOUR days!! Not sure how long this will last. In the interim, also use:</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://b1.mail.yahoo.com/ym/itestrategies.com/Compose?To=DavidScottLewis.2520656@bloglines.com" target=_blank><STRONG>DavidScottLewis.2520656@bloglines.com</STRONG></A> -- but also Cc: the above address. Of course, if you already know me, feel free to send messages to my primary and secondary e-mail accounts. (If you know me, you already know what they are. The primary account is working fine.)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.itestrategies.com/" target=_blank>http://www.itestrategies.com</A> (current blog postings optimized for MSIE6.x) </DIV> <DIV><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa</A> (access to blog content archives in China)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2azkh" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/2azkh</A> (current blog postings for viewing in other browsers and for access to blog content archives in the US & ROW)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/chinasourcingalert" target=_blank><FONT color=#0000ff>http://feeds.feedburner.com/chinasourcingalert</FONT></A> (RSS feed)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://chinasourcing.blogspot.com/atom.xml" target=_blank>http://chinasourcing.blogspot.com/atom.xml</A> (Atom feed)</DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#0000ff><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2hg2e" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/2hg2e</A></FONT> (AvantGo channel)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle" target=_blank><FONT color=#0000ff>http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle</FONT></A> (Furl)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle/rss.xml" target=_blank>http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle/rss.xml</A> (Furl RSS feed)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV></DIV> <DIV><STRONG>To automatically subscribe click on <A href="http://tinyurl.com/388yf" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/388yf</A> .</STRONG></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV>David Scott Lewishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06551889503905976812noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7295715.post-1090224725987922612004-07-19T16:12:00.000+08:002004-07-19T16:12:05.986+08:00[emerging tech] "Managing XML Data" (Web Engineering: The Evolution of New Technologies)<DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV>Monday, July 19, 2004</DIV> <DIV><EM><STRONG>Dateline: China</STRONG></EM></DIV> <DIV><STRONG><EM></EM></STRONG> </DIV> <DIV><EM><STRONG>Excerpts from the current issue of <FONT color=#0000ff>Computing in Science & Engineering</FONT>, special issue on "Web Engineering: The Evolution of New Technologies." To order this article, click on <A href="http://tinyurl.com/6v3cc">http://tinyurl.com/6v3cc</A> . (Note: Formatting has been changed from the original article; however, ordering is consistent.)</STRONG></EM></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>XML's flexibility makes it a natural format for both exchanging and integrating data from diverse data sources. In this survey, the authors give an overview of issues in managing XML data, discuss existing solutions, and outline the current technology's open problems and limitations.<BR> <P style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0in">A diverse set of factors has fueled the explosion of interest in XML ( <A href="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-xml">http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-xml</A> ): XML's self-describing nature makes it more amenable for use in loosely coupled data-exchange systems, and the flexible semistructured data model behind it makes it natural as a format for integrating data from various sources.</P> <P style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0in">But much of its success stems from the existence of standard languages for each aspect of XML processing and the rapid emergence of tools for manipulating XML. Popular tools include parsers such as Xerces ( <A href="http://xml.apache.org/xerces-j">http://xml.apache.org/xerces-j</A> ), query processors such as Galax ( <A href="http://db.bell-labs.com/galax">http://db.bell-labs.com/galax</A> ), and transformation tools such as Xalan ( <A href="http://xml.apache.org/xalan-j">http://xml.apache.org/xalan-j</A> ). The development of this standards framework has made XML dialects powerful vehicles for standardization in communities that exchange data.</P> <P style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0in">In this article, we discuss the main problems involved in managing XML data. Our objective is to clarify potential issues that must be considered when building XML-based applications---in particular, XML solutions' benefits as well as possible pitfalls. Our intent is not to give an exhaustive review of XML data-management (XDM) literature, XML standards, or a detailed study of commercial products. Instead, we aim to provide an overview of a representative subset to illustrate how some XDM problems are addressed. </P> <P style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0in">Because data typically is stored in non-XML database systems, applications must publish data in XML for exchange purposes. When a target application receives XML data, it can remap and store it in internal data structures or a target database system. Applications can also access an XML document either through APIs such as the Document Object Model (DOM; <A href="http://www.w3.org/DOM">http://www.w3.org/DOM</A> ) or query languages. The applications can directly access the document in native format or, with conversion, from a network stream or non-XML database format.</P> <P style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0in">In contrast with relational database management systems (RDBMSs) that had a clear initial motivation in supporting online transaction processing (OLTP) scenarios, XML applications' requirements vary widely. Applications must deal with several different kinds of queries (structured and keyword-based) in different scenarios (with or without transaction support, over stored or streaming data), as well as data with varying characteristics (ordered and unordered, with or without a schema).</P> <P style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0in">Commercial database vendors have also shown significant interest in XDM---support for XML data is present in most RDBMSs. Examples include IBM's DB2 XML Extender ( <A href="http://www4.ibm.com/software/data/db2/extenders/xmlext.html">http://www4.ibm.com/software/data/db2/extenders/xmlext.html</A> ), Microsoft's support for XML ( <A href="http://msdn.microsoft.com/sqlxml/">http://msdn.microsoft.com/sqlxml/</A> ), and Oracle's XML DB ( <A href="http://otn.oracle.com/tech/xml/xmldb/">http://otn.oracle.com/tech/xml/xmldb/</A> ).</P> <P style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0in">In XML, common querying tasks include filtering and selecting values, merging and integrating values from multiple documents, and transforming XML documents. While XML has enabled the creation of standard data formats within industries and communities, adoption of these standards has led to an enormous and immediate problem of exporting data available in legacy formats to meet newly created standard schemata. Several publishing languages have been proposed to specify XML views over the legacy data---that is, how to map legacy data (such as tables) into a predefined XML format.</P> <P style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0in">In this section, we discuss limitations of existing solutions as well as some open problems. Our discussion is biased toward problems we have encountered in trying to create effective and scalable XDM solutions; it is by no means exhaustive.</P> <P style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0in">Parsing and validating a document against an XML Schema or DTD are CPU-intensive tasks that can be a major bottleneck in XML management. A recent study of XML parsing and validation performance indicates that response times and transaction rates over XML data cannot be achieved without significant improvements in XML parsing technology. It suggests enhancements such as using parallel processing techniques and preparsed binary XML formats as well as better support for incremental parsing and validation.</P> <P style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0in">By using XML-specific compression techniques, tools such as XMill compare favorably against several generic compressors. Compression techniques have also been proposed that support direct querying over the compressed data, which besides saving space, also improve query processing times.</P> <P style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0in">The ability to support updates is becoming increasingly important as XML evolves into a universal data representation format. Although proposals for defining and implementing updates have emerged, a standard has yet to be defined for an update language.</P> <P style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0in"><FONT color=#0000ff><EM><STRONG>Three figures & sample code; 23 references.</STRONG></EM></FONT></P> <P style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0in"><STRONG>To request a copy of this article click on: </STRONG><A href="http://tinyurl.com/6kcqw"><STRONG>http://tinyurl.com/6kcqw</STRONG></A><STRONG> .</STRONG></P></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Cheers,</DIV></DIV> <DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>David Scott Lewis</DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV><EM>President & Principal Analyst</EM></DIV> <DIV>IT E-Strategies, Inc.</DIV> <DIV>Menlo Park, CA & Qingdao, China</DIV> <DIV><STRONG><A href="http://tinyurl.com/6xeue">e-mail</A></STRONG>: click on <A href="http://tinyurl.com/6xeue">http://tinyurl.com/6xeue</A></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.itestrategies.com/" target=_blank>http://www.itestrategies.com</A> (current blog postings optimized for MSIE6.x) </DIV> <DIV><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa</A> (access to blog content archives in China)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2azkh">http://tinyurl.com/2azkh</A> (current blog postings for viewing in other browsers and for access to blog content archives in the US & ROW)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/chinasourcingalert">http://feeds.feedburner.com/chinasourcingalert</A> (RSS feed)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://chinasourcing.blogspot.com/atom.xml" target=_blank>http://chinasourcing.blogspot.com/atom.xml</A> (Atom feed)</DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#0000ff><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2hg2e">http://tinyurl.com/2hg2e</A></FONT> (AvantGo channel)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle">http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle</A> (Furl)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle/rss.xml">http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle/rss.xml</A> (Furl RSS feed)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV></DIV> <DIV><STRONG>To automatically subscribe click on <A href="http://tinyurl.com/388yf" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/388yf</A> .</STRONG></DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV>David Scott Lewishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06551889503905976812noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7295715.post-1090219383287375762004-07-19T14:43:00.000+08:002004-07-19T14:43:03.286+08:00[humor] The Mind of an American Programmer (courtesy of Sun Microsystems)<DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV>Monday, July 19, 2004</DIV> <DIV><EM><STRONG>Dateline: China</STRONG></EM></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Go to: <A href="http://www.sun.com/aboutsun/media/features/insidejack1/start.html">http://www.sun.com/aboutsun/media/features/insidejack1/start.html</A> . A wee bit off topic, but a great perspective on the thoughts of an American programmer ... I mean, "developer." This is the funniest thing I've seen in a while; it accurately captures life in Silicon Valley. Even better than Dilbert (although yesterday's Dilbert on execs collecting "trophy wives" was pretty good). </DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>There's audio with the animation, so turn on your speakers and turn up the volume. Watch out for the jab at IBM Global Services ...</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Next: As promised, the blog posting on "The Evolution of New Technologies," a review of five emerging technologies.</DIV></DIV> <DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Cheers,</DIV></DIV> <DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>David Scott Lewis</DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV><EM>President & Principal Analyst</EM></DIV> <DIV>IT E-Strategies, Inc.</DIV> <DIV>Menlo Park, CA & Qingdao, China</DIV> <DIV><STRONG><A href="http://tinyurl.com/6xeue">e-mail</A></STRONG>: click on <A href="http://tinyurl.com/6xeue">http://tinyurl.com/6xeue</A></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV>David Scott Lewishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06551889503905976812noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7295715.post-1090054499955572892004-07-17T16:54:00.000+08:002004-07-17T16:54:59.956+08:00[news] "Urling" Instead of "Blogging"<DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV>Saturday, July 17, 2004</DIV> <DIV><EM><STRONG>Dateline: China</STRONG></EM></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Note: To skip the following chatter, simply go to: <A href="http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle">http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle</A> . The link is self-explanatory.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Next posting: "The Evolution of New Technologies" (in a couple/few days).</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>I just did a Google search and it looks like I've created a new word: "urling." Some may argue that it should be, "URLing," but it doesn't really matter to me. For now, I'll stick with "urling." And, as "blogs" are to "blogging," "urls" (again, some may argue that it should be, "URLs") are to "urling."</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Two sites inspired me to come up with the new term, <A href="http://www.furl.net/">Furl</A> and <A href="http://www.spurl.net/">Spurl</A>. (See <A href="http://www.furl.net/">http://www.furl.net</A> and <A href="http://www.spurl.net/">http://www.spurl.net</A> ; there's a more popular site with somewhat similar features, but I can't stand it.) So what in the world am I talking about? The best way to describe what I'm talking about is to paraphrase a bit from the Furl FAQ. In essence, <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>blogging is about <EM>creating</EM> (and <EM>created)</EM> content; urling is about <EM>consumed</EM> (and <EM>consuming)</EM> content</FONT></STRONG>. Notice that there is a slight difference in tense, which also notes another difference between blogging and urling.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>We all know what blogging is, so let me attempt to explain what urling is. <STRONG><FONT color=#ff0000>Urling is the sharing of annotated URLs (i.e., "urls")</FONT></STRONG>. In practice (and this is what really counts), <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>urling is the process of sharing cool sites by simply saving them via a bookmarklet</FONT></STRONG>.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>So, big deal. Why should I care? Well, in practice, Web users bookmark very few items that they actually see. However, there are often a lot of sites that users visit that might very well be worth sharing with others. But doing this (i.e., sharing bookmarks, especially if someone regularly goes on a bookmarking rampage) is a rather tedious process. <FONT color=#0000ff size=3><FONT size=2><STRONG>Using a Furl or Spurl bookmarklet, urling makes it simple to share the cool sites users visit with all others who may be interested. <U>They can even be shared as XML feeds</U>!! </STRONG><FONT color=#000000>Furl and Spurl are a generation beyond the bookmark sharing sites <EM>circa</EM> the bubble.</FONT></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Furl and Spurl also capture "urled" sites, offer recommendations, even provide a pseudo-social networking feature (although I'm a bit skeptical about this feature).</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><U>Two Days in the Life of Urling: The Practical Differences Between Blogging and Urling ... and a Peek at Urling Futures</U></DIV> <DIV><U></U> </DIV> <DIV>I try to blog two or three times each week. But in the process, I review dozens (perhaps hundreds) of articles and sites just to come up with some original content for my blog. As we all know, blogs often tend to copy from one another. ("Copy" may be viewed as an inflammatory word to some bloggers. No harm intended.) Blogging is kind of strange in that if bloggers trackback to one another, their Google results improve. Great for catching fads, I guess, but I'm not sure if any of this really matters for serious content. I'll go so far as to say that many (most) blogs do not have very much serious content.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Urling can get equally as ridiculous and people may want to share all sorts of questionable sites. But <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>it's also possible to find like-minded individuals and subscribe to what they're urling each day</FONT></STRONG>. Also, <U>not everyone likes to write</U>. (Some love it, some people hate it -- especially since words put to a blog are seemingly immortalized.) Now, <STRONG><FONT color=#ff0000>people who don't like to write, but find a lot of cool, useful information can share with others in a way which is not at all intimidating</FONT></STRONG>. No need to think about pithy things to say in a blog; simply share a cool new site you've found or a new article describing whatever by urling.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>I'm planning to use Spurl for my personal urling and I'm already using Furl for my public urling. I can't comment on Spurl's bookmarklet feature, but I must say that Furl is rather slow. Fact is, I can save an item using Bloglines much faster than I can using Furl. So speed is an issue. (I hope the folks at Furl read this.)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>I also wonder why Bloglines can't do something just like Furl (or Spurl). For my "master edition" of Bloglines, I have 64 feeds, including numerous newsletters I receive through Bloglines (including about two dozen Google News Alerts, <EM>Computerworld</EM> newsletters -- which to me are easier to read than their XML feeds, and newsletters from <EM>Line56</EM> <they don't have XML feeds> plus <EM>Network World</EM> newsletters, among others). Frankly, the ability to receive e-newsletters along with my XML news feeds is one of Bloglines' coolest features. This "master edition" of Bloglines comprises most of my "must read" trade and industry news sources. So, Bloglines should simply add the same features provided by Furl and Spurl. Right now I have to save an article I come across through Bloglines twice: Once as a clip in Bloglines and another via urling. It would be much, much simpler if I was able to "url" (which rhymes with "Furl") once in Bloglines, and still have the same sharing, recommendation and annotation features provided by Furl.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Back to my "two days" perspective. Over the past two days I tried urling with Furl. I "urled" 39 articles and sites on Friday and about 20 today (but the day is still young). Lots of good stuff, but NOTHING that I want to blog about. Also, yesterday and today were/are light reading days. My guess is that I would average at least 50 "urls" each day, with a ratio of about 100 "urls" per blog posting. That's right: A 100:1 ratio.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>I'm even testing to see how things get picked up in the "urlosphere." (Sorry, I just had to say this! I hope nobody really uses the term "urlosphere.") I tossed out to fellow "urlers" the links to a few potentially hot sites, including the sites for the iRider and Deepnet browsers, and for BYU's Data Extraction Research Group (focused on Semantic Web apps). It will be interesting to see what happens to these links in the "urlosphere."</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Take a look at my entries: <A href="http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle">http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle</A> .</DIV> <DIV>To receive as a RSS feed, subscribe to: <A href="http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle/rss.xml">http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle/rss.xml</A> .</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG>Bottom line:</STRONG> Let's see how this goes. Frankly, I'd rather focus my blog on two subjects: ITO (from a trade and business perspective) and "hot" technologies (but from a more contemplative and technical perspective, NOT a knee-jerk reaction to jerky press releases). I'd rather leave the non-ITO tech trade stuff to urling and still have the ability to share noteworthy findings.</DIV></DIV> <DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Cheers,</DIV></DIV> <DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>David Scott Lewis</DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV><EM>President & Principal Analyst</EM></DIV> <DIV>IT E-Strategies, Inc.</DIV> <DIV>Menlo Park, CA & Qingdao, China</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.itestrategies.com/" target=_blank>http://www.itestrategies.com</A> (current blog postings optimized for MSIE6.x) </DIV> <DIV><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa</A> (access to blog content archives in China)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2azkh">http://tinyurl.com/2azkh</A> (current blog postings for viewing in other browsers and for access to blog content archives in the US & ROW)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/chinasourcingalert">http://feeds.feedburner.com/chinasourcingalert</A> (Blog RSS feed)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://chinasourcing.blogspot.com/atom.xml" target=_blank>http://chinasourcing.blogspot.com/atom.xml</A> (Blog Atom feed)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle">http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle</A> (Furl)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle/rss.xml">http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle/rss.xml</A> (Furl RSS feed)</DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#0000ff><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2hg2e">http://tinyurl.com/2hg2e</A></FONT> (AvantGo channel)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV></DIV> <DIV><STRONG>To automatically subscribe click on <A href="http://tinyurl.com/388yf" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/388yf</A> .</STRONG></DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV>David Scott Lewishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06551889503905976812noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7295715.post-1089604928989718202004-07-12T12:02:00.000+08:002004-07-12T12:02:08.990+08:00[news] ERP in China<DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV>Monday, July 12, 2004</DIV> <DIV><EM><STRONG>Dateline: China</STRONG></EM></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>In this posting, I'd like to address something that is seemingly a bit mundane: ERP in China. </DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Two articles in the current issue of the <EM>Communications of the ACM</EM> <EM>(CACM)</EM> caught my eye. The first, titled "Why Western Vendors Don't Dominate China's ERP Market" is a good read. (See <A href="http://tinyurl.com/27w9d">http://tinyurl.com/27w9d</A> .) After reading this article, it's safe to say that Bamboo Networks (especially with their .NET ERP solution, which is something even Microsoft doesn't have), Kingdee, UFSoft and a few other domestic ERP vendors don't have much to fear from the "globals" -- although SAP and Oracle collectively hold about 25% of the market, which isn't bad. Textbook blunders on the part of (mostly American) software vendors. To request a copy of this article click on <A href="http://tinyurl.com/28eat">http://tinyurl.com/28eat</A> .</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>The other article is titled, "ERP in China: One Package, Two Profiles." (See <A href="http://tinyurl.com/2r45p">http://tinyurl.com/2r45p</A> .) According to this paper, more than 1,000 Chinese sites had an ERP system by the end of 2001, costing billions of dollars. Nearly 300 were on SAP. (The figures differ slightly from the above cited <EM>CACM </EM>paper.) ERP sales in China are projected to triple in five years from a US$1 billion base in 2002. (Note: I'm not sure if the author meant through 2007 or 2009.) A good quote regarding partnering opportunities: "With China's accession to the World Trade Organization, <STRONG>many multinational enterprises are rushing to</STRONG> establish operations in China and/or <STRONG>interact with Chinese business partners</STRONG>." (My emphasis.) For those on this list attempting to attract foreign direct investment, read the part which says, "<FONT color=#0000ff><STRONG>establish operations in China</STRONG></FONT>."</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>The paper noted that although ERP projects in China rarely hit even ECO/ECN-adjusted delivery schedules, they rarely exceed the planned budget. (In contrast to the States where ERP is almost always late AND over budget. In the States, taking on an ERP project is akin to playing Russian Roulette.) The article goes on to mention eight differences between ERP projects in state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and private ventures. The findings demonstrate that when it comes to ERP projects, private ventures in China are very similar to private ventures in the States. SOEs act like, well, SOEs: Bureaucratic nightmares galore. To request a copy of this article click on <A href="http://tinyurl.com/2eve2">http://tinyurl.com/2eve2</A> .</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>There is another good article in the July issue of <EM>CACM:</EM> "Demystifying Integration," which includes a listing of and brief take on dozens of domain-independent and -dependent standards and specifications for application integration. Good stuff for a systems integrator. To request a copy of this article click on <A href="http://tinyurl.com/3ysvx">http://tinyurl.com/3ysvx</A> .</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><U>Tidbits on Enterprise Software</U></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>What does the CEO of a systems integrator dream about? How about being one of the first companies to partner with a BEA or Siebel? (When I thought about this, all choices seemed rather awful!! <IMG src="http://us.i1.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/mesg/tsmileys2/04.gif">)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Need some help finding the next BEA? Turn to the AlwaysOn Network 100. For perspective, see <A href="http://tinyurl.com/23p3u">http://tinyurl.com/23p3u</A> . Last year's winners included several companies that IPO'd (including Salesforce.com, Opera), companies in line to IPO (including Google, RightNow) and several other hot companies. Frankly, their record so far is the best I've seen (albeit it's still a bit too early to draw any firm conclusions). For a listing of this year's winners (to be announced this upcoming week at Stanford -- Go Cardinal!), see <A href="http://tinyurl.com/25j9s">http://tinyurl.com/25j9s</A> . If I had the time (which I don't), I'd go through this list with a fine-tooth comb. IMHO, it's better than the listing of presenters at Enterprise Outlook or DEMO ... although the DEMO companies are a lot more fun!!.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Another list worth reviewing is Forrester's selection of the best Web design firms. (See <A href="http://tinyurl.com/3bq5z">http://tinyurl.com/3bq5z</A> .) Critical Mass, AGENCY.COM and SBI.Razorfish take top honors. Everyone tends to look toward the top 500 systems integrators in the States for partnering opportunities. However, don't discount the elite among the U.S. Web design firms. Many compete in an extremely cost conscious environment where much less expensive Java programming from a partner in China could be a win-win for all three parties: The SI in China, the Web design firm in the States, and the U.S. client.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Cheers,</DIV></DIV> <DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>David Scott Lewis</DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV><EM>President & Principal Analyst</EM></DIV> <DIV>IT E-Strategies, Inc.</DIV> <DIV>Menlo Park, CA & Qingdao, China</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.itestrategies.com" target=_blank>http://www.itestrategies.com</A></DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV></DIV> <DIV><STRONG>To automatically subscribe click on <A href="http://tinyurl.com/388yf" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/388yf</A> .</STRONG></DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV>David Scott Lewishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06551889503905976812noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7295715.post-1089303496007026902004-07-09T00:18:00.000+08:002004-07-09T00:18:16.006+08:00[news] A Special Report on Business Intelligence<DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV>Thursday, July 8, 2004</DIV> <DIV><EM><STRONG>Dateline: China</STRONG></EM></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>One of my favorite industry trades, <EM>Computerworld, </EM>recently published a <A href="http://www.computerworld.com/databasetopics/businessintelligence/report">special report on business intelligence</A> (BI). (See <A href="http://tinyurl.com/2w8j2">http://tinyurl.com/2w8j2</A> .) As regular readers of this blog know, I'm hot, hot and hotter on BI. Not only are BI apps booming in their own right, but BI also provides an open door into other structured data apps (e.g., ERP and SCM). Also, there is a burgeoning number of apps requiring both BI and knowledge management (KM) solutions, providing a host of new opportunities. (For now, think of BI for structured data and KM for unstructured data. But the lines between KM and BI are blurring.)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>The <EM>Computerworld</EM> report includes <A href="http://www.computerworld.com/databasetopics/businessintelligence/story/0,10801,93895,00.html">an introduction to BI</A> titled, "BI for the Masses," <A href="http://www.computerworld.com/databasetopics/businessintelligence/story/0,10801,93919,00.html">an introduction to Web harvesting</A>, and a <STRONG>superb article</STRONG> on <A href="http://www.computerworld.com/databasetopics/businessintelligence/story/0,10801,93968,00.html">text mining</A>; there are several online exclusives as well. In this post, I'm going to focus on an article titled, "<A href="http://www.computerworld.com/databasetopics/businessintelligence/story/0,10801,93940,00.html">Predictions for BI's Future</A>," by providing excerpts with commentary. As usual, <STRONG>items in bold are MY emphasis</STRONG>; <FONT color=#ff0000><STRONG>items in red are MY commentary</STRONG></FONT>.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG><FONT color=#ff0000>Embedded BI.</FONT></STRONG> "Over the next four to six years, <STRONG>BI systems will become embedded in small, mobile devices, such as manufacturing sensors and PDAs in the field</STRONG>, which in turn will be linked to more centralized systems." <EM>-- Erik Thomsen, distinguished scientist, Hyperion Solutions Corp., Sunnyvale, Calif.</EM></DIV> <DIV><EM></EM> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG><FONT color=#ff0000>PB DM (petabyte data mining).</FONT></STRONG> "Within three years, companies and governmental agencies will be able to successfully run analytics within a centralized data warehouse containing <STRONG>1 petabyte or more of data</STRONG> -- without performance limitations." <EM>-- Dave Schrader, technology futurist, Teradata, a division of NCR Corp., El Segundo, Calif.</EM></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG><FONT color=#ff0000>HPC to the rescue!</FONT></STRONG> "Within the next two to three years, <STRONG>high-performance computing technology</STRONG> used by scientific and engineering communities and national R&D labs <STRONG>will make its way into mainstream business for high-performance business analytics</STRONG>. This transition will be driven by the growing volume of complex data and the pressing need for companies to use forecasting and predictive analytics to minimize risk and maximize profit-generating opportunities." <I>-- Phil Fraher, chief operating officer, Visual Numerics Inc., San Ramon, Calif.</I></DIV> <DIV><EM></EM> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff><U>BI meets AI</U>.</FONT> "</STRONG>In the near future, business leaders will manage by exception, and automated systems will handle significant loads of routine tasks." -- <EM>Mike Covert, chief operating officer, Infinis Inc., Columbus, Ohio</EM> </DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>Visualization.</FONT></STRONG> "Over the next two to three years, <STRONG>BI systems will automatically suggest appropriate visualizations, which in turn will dramatically increase the use of visualization and our understanding of complex relationships</STRONG>." <I>-- Erik Thomsen, distinguished scientist, Hyperion Solutions</I></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG><FONT color=#ff0000>BI + BPM + BAM.</FONT></STRONG> "Businesses need more than a rearview mirror to drive their business forward into the next era. <STRONG>A new category of intelligence tools will emerge over the next two to three years that combines business process management, business activity monitoring (BAM) and business intelligence to enable the "actively managed enterprise."</STRONG> This will combine the scorecards and rearview-analysis capabilities of BI with the real-time, event-driven analysis of BAM and feed that information into automated business processes for on-the-fly steering of the business towards scorecard goals. This will exponentially elevate the speed at which businesses are able to operate, adapt and make critical decisions." <I>-- Tim Wolters, chief architect of business activity monitoring solutions, webMethods Inc., Fairfax, Va.</I></DIV> <DIV><EM></EM> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG>Bottom line: </STRONG>Go to a BI-related ACM or IEEE CS conference and you'll hear a lot of presentations on all of the apps described above. It's where the rubber meets the road: This stuff is real!! However, <STRONG>it's important to differentiate "real" BI with much more simplistic reporting software (like a good "chunk" of the so-called BI solutions provided by Business Objects, Cognos and even Microsoft -- via their recent acquisition of ActiveViews)</STRONG>.</DIV> <DIV><EM></EM> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG><U>A BI Site to Review</U></STRONG></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Last week I came across a paper published in the current issue of the <EM>Journal of Intelligent and Fuzzy Systems.</EM> In this paper the project called "Data Mining and Decision Support for Business Competitiveness: A European Virtual Enterprise" (SolEuNet) is used as a case study and "the source of lessons learned." The paper provides a link to the SolEuNet Web site (see <A href="http://tinyurl.com/3x5vo">http://tinyurl.com/3x5vo</A> ); <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff><U>at the SolEuNet site I found a wealth of case studies with supporting technical documents on leading-edge BI apps</U></FONT></STRONG> (see, for example, Workpackage 7 on "Combining Data Mining and Decision Support with Information Systems" at <A href="http://tinyurl.com/yqkqm">http://tinyurl.com/yqkqm</A> ). Remember, <FONT color=#ff0000><STRONG>strategy consulting isn't merely about comparing product specs </STRONG></FONT><FONT color=#000000>(regardless what the IT advisory services may say).</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><U>The Gartner Conference on BI</U></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>I got my hands on three i-banking analyst reviews of the Gartner BI conference. The Morgan Stanley report (dated 27 April) noted that customer activity levels appeared to be strong and "<STRONG>many seem to be taking a more strategic approach to BI, resulting in the emergence of larger transactions</STRONG>." (My emphasis.) Corporate performance management (CPM) is driving some of the larger deals, with Cognos and Hyperion taking the lead. Evidently, systems integrators (SIs) are getting religion and developing collaterals around CPM messaging. RBC Dominion Securities produced a more in-depth report (dated 29 April) and noted the following:</DIV> <UL> <LI>Gartner expects the market to accelerate in 2004.</LI> <LI>The ETL (extraction, transformation, and load) market will flatten (finally).</LI> <LI><STRONG>CPM is hot</STRONG>. "<STRONG>Hyperion, Cognos, and SAS appeared to be the best positioned non-ERP vendors to capitalize on the CPM market opportunity</STRONG>." However, "(they) believe that SAP is the best-positioned large enterprise software vendor to execute in both the BI and CPM market ..."</LI> <LI>Finally, the Gartner BI conference itself was hot, with 973 attendees, an increase in attendance of 70% over last year.</LI></UL> <DIV>UBS chimed in with their own report (dated 30 April), which in some ways was a bit more technical than the other two reports cited above. UBS noted that heterogeneous environments require independent tools (e.g., it is very difficult to get heterogeneous data into an ERP data warehouse <DW>). <STRONG>Gartner's rule of thumb is that an ERP-derived BI/DW solution should be on the short-list only if more than 60% of an organization's BI data resides within that single app vendor</STRONG>. <STRONG>UBS also noted that the importance of BI is leading to the formation of BI competency centers</STRONG>. They also believe that SAP and Microsoft remain significant long-term threats to the independent software vendors such as Cognos and Business Objects. BTW, all three reports seemed a bit down on Business Objects.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><U>Another <EM>Computerworld</EM> feature on BI</U></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Sometimes advertorials can be a good thing. A case in point is the 26 April issue of <EM>Computerworld</EM> which provides a link to a new, six page <EM>Computerworld</EM> White Paper on BI. The paper is titled, "Charting the Course: A Guide to Evaluating Business Intelligence Products"; it's a good, practical read. Tactical, product spec advice and guidelines, but still a good read. The PDF can be found at <A href="http://tinyurl.com/2gt3d">http://tinyurl.com/2gt3d</A> .</DIV> <DIV><U></U> </DIV> <DIV><U>Recent Tidbits on BI</U></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>The <EM>New Straits Times</EM> (Malaysia) via <EM>Asia Africa Intelligence Wire</EM> reported on 24 June that SAS "expects the BI market in Asia to register double-digit growth for the next five years. (Don Cooper Williams, director of marketing and alliances for SAS Asia-Pacific) cites a recent report from research house International Data Corp, which predicts that BI software market in the region (excluding Japan) to grow by 12 per cent this year, up from 7.5 per cent in 2003." <STRONG>Note to SIs in China: BI isn't just hot in the States; leverage your skills for serving the U.S. market and the domestic market.</STRONG></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>From the channel, <EM>India Business Insight</EM> (also via <EM>Asia Africa Intelligence Wire</EM>) on 31 May announced that "Business Objects has entered into a long-standing systems integrator agreement with Wipro Infotech (WI) to provide business intelligence (BI) solutions to customers." <STRONG>Note to SIs in China: Don't be left without a dance partner.</STRONG></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><U>Additional Articles for Review</U></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>I did a quick scan of trade lit and found a few articles worth reading. First, the March-April issue of <EM>Financial Executive</EM> talks about CPM -- Corporate Performance Management -- as it relates to BI. The May issue of <EM>Insurance & Technology</EM> takes a vertical look at BI (rather basic apps), as does the April issue of <EM>Business Credit</EM>. Always think verticals.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><U>A Final Wrap (or Should I Say, "Rap"?)</U></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Back to <EM>Computerworld</EM>. More specifically, see the 29 March issue of <EM>Computerworld</EM>. According to a survey conducted by IBM Business Consulting Services, BI is a high priority on the plate of C-level execs. In a <EM>Computerworld</EM> poll, <STRONG>39% of IT executives listed business intelligence projects as their most critical IT projects</STRONG>. By 2005, market research firm IDC projects that the worldwide market for business intelligence software will total about $6 billion -- up from $2.5 billion in 2003 -- signaling a major increase in business intelligence projects. <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>IT executives say the skills they need on business intelligence projects include <U>systems integration</U>, data modeling, database administration, data standardization and project management.</FONT></STRONG> </DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Cheers,</DIV></DIV> <DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>David Scott Lewis</DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV><EM>President & Principal Analyst</EM></DIV> <DIV>IT E-Strategies, Inc.</DIV> <DIV>Menlo Park, CA & Qingdao, China</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.itestrategies.com/" target=_blank>http://www.itestrategies.com</A> (current blog postings optimized for MSIE6.x) </DIV> <DIV><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa</A> (access to blog content archives in China)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2azkh">http://tinyurl.com/2azkh</A> (current blog postings for viewing in other browsers and for access to blog content archives in the US & ROW)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/chinasourcingalert">http://feeds.feedburner.com/chinasourcingalert</A> (RSS feed)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://chinasourcing.blogspot.com/atom.xml" target=_blank>http://chinasourcing.blogspot.com/atom.xml</A> (Atom feed)</DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#0000ff><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2hg2e">http://tinyurl.com/2hg2e</A></FONT> (AvantGo channel)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV></DIV> <DIV><STRONG>To automatically subscribe click on <A href="http://tinyurl.com/388yf" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/388yf</A> .</STRONG></DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV>David Scott Lewishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06551889503905976812noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7295715.post-1089127984894591692004-07-06T23:33:00.000+08:002004-07-06T23:33:04.893+08:00[news] IT Spending Trends<DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV>Tuesday, July 6, 2004</DIV> <DIV><EM><STRONG>Dateline: China</STRONG></EM></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>A quick recap on IT spending trends from three recently published Smith Barney surveys. The three reports are the May and June editions of their <EM>CIO Vendor Preference Survey</EM> and the 6 June issue of <EM>softwareWEEK.</EM> Tom Berquist, my favorite i-banking analyst, was the lead for all three reports. I have a backlog of blogs to write, so I'll use as many quotes as possible and add context where necessary. (I'm mostly extracting from my smartphone bookmarks for these reports. Warning: I may have coded the May and June issues incorrectly, but the quotes are correct.) NOTE: <STRONG>Highlighted items (e.g., items in bold, like this sentence) are MY emphasis.</STRONG> <STRONG><FONT color=#ff0000>Items in red are my commentary.</FONT></STRONG></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Starting with the <EM>Survey </EM>editions, "(t)he strongest areas of spending appear to be software (apps, security, storage, and database) and network equipment/apps (Gigabit Ethernet, WLAN, VPNs)" and regarding software, "larger and more well known vendors continue to dominate the list in each category with vendors such as Microsoft, SAP, IBM, Veritas, Symantec and Computer Associates getting significantly more mentions in each of their groups than the remaining vendors did." However, the report admits that their sample group might be biased. <FONT color=#ff0000><STRONG>Yes, <U>vendors matter -- and so do vendor partnering strategies</U>. However, I'm a bit skeptical about CA and I don't particular care very much for Veritas or</STRONG> <STRONG>Symantec. Not my part of the universe.</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>"Applications again stand out as a clear area of strength." "<STRONG>Within applications, Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP), Supply Chain Management (SCM), Customer Relationship Management (CRM) and Business Intelligence (BI) all showed extremely well</STRONG> ..." <STRONG><FONT color=#ff0000>Well, this is the first sign that a recovery may be in the making for SCM. However, <U>I'd emphasize BI and ERP</U>, followed by CRM; don't count on a lot happening in the SCM space just yet. Some other key surveys do NOT validate that SCM is in recovery.</FONT></STRONG> "In terms of specific vendors, <STRONG>Microsoft, Symantec, Veritas, SAP, and Adobe were the top beneficiaries of CIOs intentions to increase spending</STRONG>." The report continues that <STRONG>only SAP showed statistically significant results, both in ERP and SCM</STRONG>. "Results were more mixed for best-of-breed vendors in this area, suggesting that horizontal applications vendors are having a tough time competing with the large ERP vendors even as vertically-focused vendors continue to have some measure of success on this front." <STRONG><FONT color=#ff0000>For the more adventurous SIs in China, <U>SAP presents a lot of opportunities</U>. Tread carefully, though.</FONT></STRONG> And "Adobe's enterprise strategy appears to be gaining momentum. <STRONG>Adobe was a clear standout in content management</STRONG> ..." "Survey results were also positive (though somewhat less so) for other leading content management players, notably Microsoft and IBM." <STRONG><FONT color=#ff0000>Another "win" for Microsoft. Funny that none of the traditionally leading content management players were mentioned.</FONT></STRONG> A take on Linux: "Linux continues to garner mind share, but large enterprises remain the main adopter. Interestingly, nearly 83% of our respondents stated that they were not currently moving any applications to Linux. Of the 17% that said they were moving applications to Linux, only one company under $1.0 billion in revenue was making the transition to Linux confirming our views that <STRONG>Linux is primarily being used by large companies to shift Unix applications to Linux on Intel</STRONG>."</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>"<STRONG>Among CIOs who indicated a higher level of consulting spend, IBM was the clear winner</STRONG>, followed by Accenture as a distant second. Unisys was also mentioned as a vendor being considered, but it was a distant third. However, we note that Unisys being mentioned ahead of a pure-play consultant like BearingPoint (a low number of mentions, which included mentions of decreased spending) or EDS is positive, given that Unisys chooses to focus in 2 specific verticals, including one-public sector-that was not in the survey." "Over two-thirds of CIOs indicated that they do not use IT outsourcers. Most of the rest said they were unlikely to change the level of outsourcing spend. IBM, ACS and CSC were the only vendors explicitly mentioned as likely to get more outsourcing business." <STRONG><FONT color=#ff0000>The "two-thirds" figure will likely change in favor of outsourcing. This trend is fairly clear. See a BCG report at<FONT color=#ff0000> </FONT><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2muy8"><FONT color=#0000ff>http://tinyurl.com/2muy8</FONT></A> , although the report takes a relatively broad perspective. </FONT></STRONG></DIV> <DIV><STRONG><FONT color=#ff0000></FONT></STRONG> </DIV> <DIV>From <EM>softwareWEEK,</EM> "(t)he CIOs were also very focused on rapid 'time to market' with purchases. <STRONG>None were interested in starting projects that would take greater than 2 quarters to complete</STRONG>." "This requirement was not a 'payback' requirement, but rather an implementation time frame requirement. The CIOs did recognize that payback times could be longer, though the payback times on IT utility spending were much shorter than on applications or emerging area spending."</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>"In terms of spending, the CIOs all used a similar methodology for making decisions that essentially divides their IT spending into one of three categories: 1) sustained spending on their 'IT utility' (i.e., infrastructure such as network equipment, servers, storage, databases, etc.); 2) new project spending on applications (business intelligence, portals, CRM, etc.); and 3) investment spending on select emerging areas (grid/utility computing, identity management, collaboration, etc.) It was pretty obvious that the CIOs recognized that business unit managers were more interested in spending on new applications/emerging areas than on the IT utility ..." <STRONG>"(S)ome of the CIOs were experimenting with grid/utility computing initiatives to try to increase their utilization of storage/servers and reduce the amount of new equipment to be purchased</STRONG>. In one example, a CIO showed their storage/server utilization around the world and many regions were in the 50% or worse bucket for average utilization. <STRONG>Their goal was to use grid computing architectures and storage area networks (along with faster communication links) to better share the pool of resources</STRONG>." <STRONG><FONT color=#ff0000>Yes, this is it!! Take this to heart!! If you think grid and utility computing are <EM>Star Trek</EM> stuff, think again.</FONT></STRONG></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>"In terms of new projects, the <STRONG>CIOs mentioned they were spending on business intelligence, portal/self-service applications, CRM, and collaboration</STRONG>. Collaboration was a heated discussion, with all CIOs commenting that this was a big problem for them and there was no clear solution on the market. While it wasn't completely clear to the audience what the CIOs were looking for <STRONG>in a collaboration solution,</STRONG> <STRONG>the elements that were described included: more intelligent email, corporate instant messaging, web conferencing, integrated voice over IP with instant messaging</STRONG> (so that a conversation could quickly shift from typing to talking), <STRONG>and collaborative document editing</STRONG> (spreadsheets, presentations, publications, etc.). <STRONG>Within the business intelligence arena, business activity monitoring was discussed</STRONG> as was building of enterprise data warehouses/data marts. <STRONG>The portal/self-service applications being built or deployed were primarily for customer and employee self-service</STRONG> (<STRONG>remote access to email, applications, and files was a big deal for all of the companies</STRONG>). <STRONG>On the CRM front, the discussion from one CIO was around their need to increase revenues and manage channel conflict better</STRONG>." [I'll be posting to this blog a bit more about collaboration opportunities over the next week.]</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>"While vendors were not discussed in any detail during the panel, the <STRONG>CIOs did say that they remain open to working with smaller vendors (public and private) as long as they have plenty of relevant references (in their industry, particularly with close competitors) and they offer a compelling value proposition versus larger vendors</STRONG>. One CIO stated that they get called by 20 startups a week to sell products to them, but <STRONG>most of them cannot articulate the value proposition of their product</STRONG>. Nonetheless, the CIO does take 5 meetings a month from startups because some of them are working on things that are interesting to the business."</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Whew ... Lots of good materials. To reiterate, all highlighted items are my emphasis. <STRONG>Bottom line:</STRONG> The market is heating up. Get your ISV relationships in place. Pick your verticals (see the "Tidbit on Microsoft" which follows). Pick your apps -- and <STRONG><FONT color=#ff0000>the apps I like the best are content management and BI, although ERP is looking good, too. Collaboration can be a major source of revenue if the SI can provide a truly effective solution</FONT></STRONG>.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><U>Tidbits on Microsoft</U></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>A quick update on some happenings in the Redmond universe. (See <A href="http://tinyurl.com/36xgu">http://tinyurl.com/36xgu</A> ; the article is titled, "Microsoft focuses on its enterprise-applications business".) First, app areas that are of particular interest to MS include those for manufacturing and life sciences. So, <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>how about a MS build-to-their-stack strategy focused on either of these two verticals?</FONT></STRONG> Second, MS is moving beyond purely horizontal offerings to very specific functionality. Their Encore acquisition is an example of MS moving in this direction. Finally, new releases of all four of Microsoft's ERP product lines are due for this year. Not surprisingly, MBS marketing is up 20% from FY04. Hmmm ... <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>ERP spending intentions are strong and MS is a key player in this space -- with several updated offerings scheduled for release this year. Another opportunity?</FONT></STRONG></DIV> <DIV><STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff></FONT></STRONG> </DIV> <DIV><U>Tidbits on Infosys</U></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Infosys formally enters the IT strategy consulting biz. (See <A href="http://tinyurl.com/2xxlo">http://tinyurl.com/2xxlo</A> .) Yes, it was inevitable. In April Infosys Consulting, Inc. was formed and, "(i)t's no secret that the winning model will be high-end business consulting combined with high-quality, low-cost technology delivery done offshore," according to Stephen Pratt, the head of Infosys' consulting unit. The Infosys Consulting unit now has 150 employees in the States and plans to expand to 500 within three years. <STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff>Note to SIs in China: <U>You need more -- a lot more -- IT strategy types And you need people in the States (at least on an "as needed" basis) in order to capture -- and serve -- new accounts.</U></FONT></STRONG></DIV></DIV> <DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Cheers,</DIV></DIV> <DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>David Scott Lewis</DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV><EM>President & Principal Analyst</EM></DIV> <DIV>IT E-Strategies, Inc.</DIV> <DIV>Menlo Park, CA & Qingdao, China</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.itestrategies.com/" target=_blank>http://www.itestrategies.com</A> (current blog postings optimized for MSIE6.x) </DIV> <DIV><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa</A> (access to blog content archives in China)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2azkh">http://tinyurl.com/2azkh</A> (current blog postings for viewing in other browsers and for access to blog content archives in the US & ROW)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/chinasourcingalert">http://feeds.feedburner.com/chinasourcingalert</A> (RSS feed)</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://chinasourcing.blogspot.com/atom.xml" target=_blank>http://chinasourcing.blogspot.com/atom.xml</A> (Atom feed)</DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#0000ff><A href="http://tinyurl.com/2hg2e">http://tinyurl.com/2hg2e</A></FONT> (AvantGo channel)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV></DIV> <DIV><STRONG>To automatically subscribe click on <A href="http://tinyurl.com/388yf" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/388yf</A> .</STRONG></DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV>David Scott Lewishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06551889503905976812noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7295715.post-1088744623219762852004-07-02T13:03:00.000+08:002004-07-02T13:03:43.220+08:00[news] JavaMania<DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV>Friday, July 2, 2004</DIV> <DIV><EM><STRONG>Dateline: China</STRONG></EM></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>I'd like to report on what happened at JavaOne, but there are two problems: First, I was in China, not at J1. Second, there are a flood of reports in the press. To get a recap, the best bet is to visit one of my favorite XML "news" feeds: <EM>"TheServerSide.com: Your Enterprise Java Community"</EM>. However, I will highlight several newsworthy items:</DIV> <UL> <LI>Project Looking Glass -- kind of a 3D windows interface (but doesn't run under Windows (capital "W"); shown a year ago, but seems to be ready for prime time.</LI> <LI>J2SE Version 5 (J2SE 5) -- yes, their numbering scheme has changed; Sun is trying to make client-side Java a ... ah, possibility. <IMG src="http://us.i1.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/mesg/tsmileys2/04.gif"></LI> <LI>Java for your BMW -- true!! The ultimate geek toy!! "Hey, baby, want to ride in my Java-powered B'mer?" I can see it now ...</LI> <LI>Java-enabled phones (350 million) and Java-enabled smart cards (600 million) -- hmmm ... I don't have either (I feel like a Luddite!).</LI> <LI>Project Kitty Hawk -- "includes professional services for designing an SOA" (service-oriented architecture); sounds enticing.</LI> <LI>NetBeans 4.0 Integrated Development Environment (IDE ) -- Sun's "big" J2EE-related news, and ...</LI> <LI>... more mobile stuff (see <A href="http://tinyurl.com/2jexc">http://tinyurl.com/2jexc</A> ).</LI></UL> <DIV>Tidbit: There are four million Java developers, up one million over the past year. Not sure if I believe this, but the trend sounds good.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>In addition to <EM>TheServerSide.com</EM>, see <A href="http://tinyurl.com/2oegn">http://tinyurl.com/2oegn</A> , <A href="http://tinyurl.com/2v95w">http://tinyurl.com/2v95w</A> for further background info.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG>Bottom line:</STRONG> Yes, <STRONG>I am touting Java</STRONG>.</DIV></DIV> <DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Cheers,</DIV></DIV> <DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>David Scott Lewis</DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV><EM>President & Principal Analyst</EM></DIV> <DIV>IT E-Strategies, Inc.</DIV> <DIV>Menlo Park, CA & Qingdao, China</DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV>David Scott Lewishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06551889503905976812noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7295715.post-1088389899418887292004-06-28T10:31:00.000+08:002004-06-28T10:31:39.416+08:00[news] "The Pros and Cons of Software as a Service" <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV>Thursday, June 17, 2004</DIV> <DIV><EM><STRONG>Dateline: China</STRONG></EM></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Not many "cons." Read it for yourself at <A href="http://tinyurl.com/yrtu4" target=_blank>http://tinyurl.com/yrtu4</A> .</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Cheers,</DIV></DIV> <DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>David Scott Lewis</DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV><EM>President & Principal Analyst</EM></DIV> <DIV>IT E-Strategies, Inc.</DIV> <DIV>Menlo Park, CA & Qingdao, China</DIV> <DIV> <DIV><STRONG></STRONG></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV>David Scott Lewishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06551889503905976812noreply@blogger.com