Saturday, July 09, 2005

UPDATE: Switching to a new format, with a surprise in the works ...

Please stay tuned.  I plan to release my next podcast by October -- and it will very likely be part of a global podcasting network, eventually going to a weekly, 30 minute format.  Can't say more, but please stay tuned!!
 
Cheers,

David Scott Lewis
President & Principal Analyst
IT E-Strategies, Inc.
Qingdao, China & Menlo Park, California
DSL.7747350 -at- bloglines.com (used to avoid a bit of spam)
callto://davidscottlewis

Friday, February 11, 2005

Inaugural Podcast - Part 2 of 2 - Commentary

Welcome to the inaugural podcast of David on Enterprise Software.

In this edition there's coverage of utility computing (both from a virtualization and a software-as-a-service perspective), knowledge management and IBM's Rational Unified Process.

Please send me or call in your feedback!!

To directly download this podcast, click here.

Cheers,

David Scott Lewis
President & Principal Analyst
IT E-Strategies, Inc.
Qingdao, China & Menlo Park, California
DSL.7747350 -at- bloglines.com (used to avoid a bit of spam)
callto://davidscottlewis

Inaugural Podcast - Part 1 of 2 - Background & Mission

Welcome to the inaugural podcast of David on Enterprise Software.

For commentary on utility computing (both from a virtualization and software-as-a-service perspective), knowledge management and IBM's Rational Unified Process see the second part of this podcast.

To directly download part one, click here.
To directly download part two, click here.


Cheers,

David Scott Lewis
President & Principal Analyst
IT E-Strategies, Inc.
Qingdao, China & Menlo Park, California
DSL.7747350 -at- bloglines.com (used to avoid a bit of spam)
callto://davidscottlewis

Thursday, November 11, 2004

[urls/news] The Global Grid: China's HPC Opportunity

Thursday, November 11, 2004
Dateline: China
 
For this posting, I'm using an annotated urls format.  Let's begin.
 
The Global Grid
 
Grid computing.  HPC (high-performance computing).  Lots of trade press coverage.  Lots of academic papers.  Generally, this is a GREAT convergence.  Didn't hold with AI (artificial intelligence), but the coverage of grid computing is much more pervasive.  Also, it's an area where I believe that systems integrators (SIs) in China can play with the globals.  It's new enough that there are no clear leaders.  Okay, maybe IBM is a clear leader, but it's certainly not an established market.
 
It's also a market where Chinese SIs can leverage work done for domestic applications for Western clients.  This is NOT true in areas such as banking applications; the apps used in China are very different from the apps used in the States.  Fundamentally different systems.  But a lot of grid work is more about infrastructure and custom development.  There's also a lot of open source in the grid sphere.
 
I've selected some of the best papers and sites for review.  This is certainly not meant to be comprehensive, but simply follow the links for more info.
 
One last note:  Clicking on any of the following links will likely lead you to an abstract and possibly to some personal commentary not included in this posting.  You may also find related links found by other Furl users.
 
The "Bible" of the grid world.  The home page will lead to many other relevant papers and reports.  See also The Anatomy of the Grid (PDF).
 
Hottest journal issue in town!!  Papers may be downloaded for free.  See also Grid computing: Conceptual flyover for developers.
 
One of the better conferences; covers applications and provides links to several excellent papers and presentations.
 
Well, the link has been replaced.  Try to get a hold of this paper.  It WAS available for free.  SOA meets the grid.  The lead author, Liang-Jie Zhang, is a researcher at IBM T.J.Watson Research Center and chair of the IEEE Computer Society Technical Steering Committee (technical community) for Services Computing. Contact him at zhanglj@us.ibm.com .  Ask for his related papers, too.
 
Several excellent papers; recent conference.  Middleware:  Yes, middleware is the key to SI opportunities.
 
Conference held earlier this month!!  See who is doing what in China.
 
Want a competitive edge in the grid space?  This is it!!
 
NOTE:  A search for "grid computing" in my Furl archive yields 164 hits (and most are publicly searchable).  See http://www.furl.net/members/goldentriangle .
 
Other News
 
Outsourcing & Offshoring:
 
I don't agree with this, but it's worth reading, especially considering the source.  I agree that China shouldn't try to be a clone of India, but the arguments in support of the domestic market don't consider margins.
 
I'll be writing a column for the AlwaysOn Network about the disconnect between China's foreign policy initiatives and the realities of the IT sector.  Suffice it to say that SIs in China should NOT chase after the EU.  Again, do NOT confuse foreign policy with corporate policy!!
 
More of the same.  Read my comments about Romania by clicking the link ...
 
Google is coming to China, too.  Think MS Research in Beijing.
 
Another great move by IBM; they're clearly leading the pack.
 
This article is a bit confusing.  I suspect that TCS is simply copying the IGS China strategy.  But it's worth noting that they're moving beyond servicing their American clients with a presence in China.
 
Yes, yes and yes.  Expect a lot more of this.  I wouldn't be surprised to see China's SIs forced to move a bit lower on the U.S. SI food chain for partnerships.  Move up the chain by thinking verticals!!
 
BPO:
 
No need to click; it's all about security.
 
No, not really a new model; more about a new certification!!  Just what the world needs ...
 
Enterprise Software:
 
The title says it all.
 
Maybe the "P" in "LAMP" should stand for "Plone"?
 
A strategy for USERS, i.e., SIs in China.
 
Marketing & Management:
 
Product Management 101, courtesy of the Harvard Business School.
 
Spread this throughout your organization ... and then ramp up with some paid tools.
 
SCM (supply chain management) meets marketing, but with a general management and strategy slant.
 
G2 planning strategies.  A wee bit mathematical, but still fairly easy to follow.
 
Expect the next original posting in two or three weeks; my next column for the AlwaysOn Network will be sent to this list.  Off to HK/SZ/ZH/GZ next week.
 
Cheers,
 
David Scott Lewis
President & Principal Analyst
IT E-Strategies, Inc.
Menlo Park, CA & Qingdao, China
 
http://www.itestrategies.com (current blog postings optimized for MSIE6.x)
http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa (access to blog content archives in China)
http://tinyurl.com/2azkh (current blog postings for viewing in other browsers and for access to blog content archives in the US & ROW)
http://tinyurl.com/2hg2e (AvantGo channel)
 
 
To automatically subscribe click on http://tinyurl.com/388yf .
 

Sunday, September 19, 2004

[urls] Measuring the ROI of Software Process Improvement

Saturday, September 18, 2004
Dateline: China
 
The following is a sampling of my top ten "urls" for the past couple/few weeks.  By signing up with Furl (it's free), anyone can subscribe to an e-mail feed of ALL my urls (about 100-250 per week) -- AND limit by subject (e.g., ITO) and/or rating (e.g., articles rated "Very Good" or "Excellent").  It's also possible to receive new urls as an RSS feed.
 
All of the top ten are PDFsClick on the link to read the abstract for each paper.
 
Note: Off to California for a couple of weeks.  Probably no new, original postings until after the October national holiday in China.  (I get a three week break from writing for this blog, but I'll still be writing columns for the AlwaysOn Network.)
 
Top Honors:
 
Measuring the ROI of Software Process Improvement (relatively speaking, very popular among Furl viewers; highly accessible article with a lot of substance and pointers)
 
Other best new selections (in order of popularity as determined by Furl views, then alphabetically):
 
A Framework for Off-The-Shelf Software Component Development and Maintenance Processes (this was THE most popular paper, although I liked the ROI article better; superb info, good guidelines, lots of food for thought)
Agent-Based e-Supply Chain Decision Support (not as geeky as it sounds; lead author is with Carnegie Mellon's e-Supply Chain Management Laboratory & Institute for e-Commerce)
B2B E-Commerce Stages of Growth: the Strategic Imperatives (a look at some case studies; provides some insights into B2B adoption and diffusion)
Creating an Open Agent Environment for Context-Aware M-Commerce (from the Mobile Commerce Laboratory at Carnegie Mellon <no, this isn't necessarily CMU week>; I have a lot of doubts about this stuff, but it's worth firing a few neurons and giving it a spin)
Development and Evaluation of Software Process Improvement Methods (Dissertation, 190 pp.) (superb overviews sprinkled with case studies; it was tough to choose between this dissertation and the ROI paper for top honors)
Deriving a Diffusion Framework for Web-Based Shopping Systems (a bit of a technical flavor, but not too technical; puts e-shopping in a broader perspective, e.g., relative to EDI)
* Exploring Defect Causes in Products Developed by Virtual Teams (to all SIs developing a GDM - global delivery model - READ THIS!!; perhaps the most important paper among my top ten)
* Intelligent Support for Software Release Planning (a corporate technical paper describing a very useful software development management tool; see also the Release Planner (tm) home page)
 
And my PERSONAL favorite:
 
> The Banality of Google (good for some laughs)
 
and many, many more ...
 
Cheers,
 
David Scott Lewis
President & Principal Analyst
IT E-Strategies, Inc.
Menlo Park, CA & Qingdao, China
 
http://www.itestrategies.com (current blog postings optimized for MSIE6.x)
http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa (access to blog content archives in China)
http://tinyurl.com/2azkh (current blog postings for viewing in other browsers and for access to blog content archives in the US & ROW)
http://tinyurl.com/2hg2e (AvantGo channel)
 
 
To automatically subscribe click on http://tinyurl.com/388yf .
 

Thursday, September 16, 2004

[news/commentary] Building ISV Relationships: Targeting SMEs - Part I

Thursday, September 16, 2004
Dateline: China
 
New column on the AlwaysOn Network.  It's on the potential downside of offshoring (the downside for the States, that is).  For the next five days, see http://www.alwayson-network.com ; the permanent link is at http://tinyurl.com/4e4q4 .  It got the ire of a lot of readers and a lot of views (I'm projecting nearly 500 in less than one day).  The article which was the basis for my column is getting a lot of attention in the States.  Worth reading.
 
Building ISV Relationships: Targeting SMEs -- Part I
 
First, a bit of commentary.  One thing all smart SIs (systems integrators) do is develop partnerships and alliances with ISVs (independent software vendors, i.e., software publishers/software companies in a broad sense).  Of course, it's difficult to be the 1,000th entrant in the game and expect to get any traction/assistance from your ISV partner.
 
SIs in China ALWAYS use the approach of offering localization services and OFTEN offer to help push an ISV's product within the domestic market in China.  Frankly, this is what the (usually American) ISV wants, too.  Does this strategy work?  Well, sometimes.  However, even in the case of high profile alliances such as some of those Microsoft has in China (and I won't name names to protect the innocent), it's really nothing more than window dressing.  Everything looks good on paper, but the reality is something quite different.
 
Regardless, this does NOT address the need and desire for SIs in China to build their market in the States.  And when this issue becomes center stage, ISVs frequently respond with something bordering on contempt.  Some ISVs are getting clued that their American channel partners absolutely need partners in China and other low(er)-cost development areas in order to win bids.  Let's face it, it's all about closing deals.  And if an ISV's competitors have channel partners which can put together winning bids, perhaps in part (and perhaps in LARGE part) due to an offshoring component with their channel partner's SI partner(s) in China, then the ISV with an indirect link to China has a competitive advantage.  I don't view this as a sufficient condition to winning bids, but it's increasingly a necessary condition.
 
Clued ISVs want their American channel partners to have an offshoring option, but this requires that their channel partners have relationships with SIs in a country such as China.  But ISVs tend to focus their channel development efforts on their American partners and might develop a couple/few relationships in China, but usually NOT tied to their channel development efforts in the States.  Goofy and shortsighted, to say the least.
 
But how can SIs in China get traction with American ISVs, especially since they're almost always late to the game (in other words, the American ISV already has a well-developed channel)?  The answer (or, at least one answer):  Focus on servicing the needs of SMEs (small and medium enterprises, which is also referred to as "SMBs" -- small and medium businesses).
 
There's another reason this makes sense:  Most of the SIs in China are already focused on servicing SMEs/SMBs in China.  It might be nice to bag a large SOE (state-owned enterprise), but the reality is that most firms in China, especially the burgeoning number of privately-held firms, are SMEs by definition.  Hence, the experiences gained by SIs in China is already within the same market, although I'd be the first person to warn than company size and even similar domains does not necessarily equate to directly transferable skills.  Fact is, things in China are often quite different from the way they are in the States, especially in a "hot" ITO (IT outsourcing) market like financial services.  More about this in a forthcoming postingBottom line:  Give serious thought to targeting the SMB/SME market in the States.  (Part II of this commentary might be a while in coming.)
 
IT Tidbits
 
Lots of tidbits this week.
 
Controlling project costs.  My favorites:  Scope creep, not understanding project financing, "big-bang" projects, overtesting (although I'm not sure I agree with this one), poor estimating.  Good stuff, with recommended solutions.  See http://tinyurl.com/6rfkg .
 
Challenges for China's SIs.  Adapted from a Forrester report.   For starters, how about:  Improving account management (are there really any account managers in China, or at least any who can manage accounts with U.S. clients?   ), moving away from technology-centric messages that often alienate business buyers (better yet, moving away from messages in Chinglish), investing in vertical-specific skills (how many times have I said this?) and becoming more multicultural organizations (yes, and let's start with learning English!).  See http://tinyurl.com/4avfo .
 
"Yee Haw" as an outsourcing option.  Forget India.  Forget China.  Forget the Philippines.  Let's go to Arkansas!!  See http://tinyurl.com/7ya9p .
 
American start-ups go offshore.  Try Corio (is Corio really a start-up?), CollabNet, Aarohl, Infinera, and many others.  See http://tinyurl.com/3wm3o .  Another good article with a BPO spin in Venture Capital Journal, http://tinyurl.com/4rfsa .
 
Offshorings mixed results.  "Vietnam and Myanmar were also in demand ..."  Really?  See http://tinyurl.com/647ap .
 
Looking for SI partners?  Kennedy ranks the largest firms.  As I've said in the past, I like their reports.  (No, I don't get a cut.)  Satyam and TCS didn't make the grade, though.  See http://tinyurl.com/4s965 .
 
Another challenge to conventional outsourcing and offshoring "wisdom."   "Services-driven development models, such as the one at work in India, broaden the global competitive playing field.  As a result, new pressures are brought to bear on hiring and real wages in the developed world - pressures that are not inconsequential in shaping the jobless recoveries unfolding in high-cost wealthy nations.  For those in the developed world, successful services- and manufacturing-based development models in heavily populated countries such as India and China - pose the toughest question of all: what about us?"  For more, see http://tinyurl.com/4acm4 .
 
Forget the Golden Triangle.  How about China + India vs. the world (or, sans the world)?  "Newspaper headlines portray China as the world's manufacturing base for low-cost goods, like clothing and shoes, and India as the global IT monopoly-to-be.  Unfortunately, media outside Asia have failed to acknowledge the growing partnership between the two giants."  "Given the complementary nature of their economies and the size of their markets (nearly 2.2 billion people in total), the nascent cooperation between the two holds the potential to dramatically alter the world trade balance.  A perusal of the Shanghai technology corridor reveals a hint of the countries' industrial interconnectedness.  Walk through one of the main complexes in Shanghai's Pudong Software Park, and you will see a prominently displayed sign for Infosys, one of India's most respected IT firms.  The same complex also holds Satyam, the first of India's software service companies to set up offices in Shanghai.  Nearby are the headquarters of the largest software services company in Asia, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), which currently runs an outsourcing center for GE in the town of Hangzhou.  TCS is owned by the Tatas, one of India's most prominent business families.  Across the river is NIIT, the principal software training center in India's private sector.  NIIT, operating in China since 1998, now runs an extensive two-year course in 25 provinces, training around 20,000 students to be software professionals.  There is widespread speculation that Wipro, India's only giant IT firm without a presence in the city, will establish a Shanghai office very soon.  It is no surprise that Indian software companies are setting up in China. They, like everyone else, sense great opportunity in one of the largest, fastest-growing economies in the world."  (Bold is my emphasis.)  All true, and they even forget MphasiS.  See one of my must-read sources, YaleGlobalhttp://tinyurl.com/6ltaz .
 
The partnering wave of the future.  I've talked about this many times in previous postings.  This time CTG dances with Polaris Software.  See http://tinyurl.com/5tbqd .
 
CMMi:  The key to success.  A little simplistic and uses incorrect definitions, but still worth reading.  See http://tinyurl.com/4gp9u .
 
 
 
 
 
How about Microsoft vs. China in an AO "Grudge Match"?  See a lengthy article in CFO titled, "Does Microsoft need China?"; link at http://tinyurl.com/476bo .  China: The champion of open source!!
 
 
Business creativity 101.  "A new book from Wharton School Publishing, The Power of Impossible Thinking by Jerry Wind and Colin Crook prompts you to rethink your mental models and transform them to help you achieve new levels of creativity. In this book, the authors give a set of guidelines on how to see differently."  Examples:  Listen to the radicals; embark on journeys of discovery; look across disciplines.  See http://tinyurl.com/6fvo8 .
 
The innovator's battle plan.  "Great firms can be undone by disruptors who analyze and exploit an incumbent's strengths and motivations.  From Clayton Christensen's new book Seeing What's Next."  GREAT stuff (although John Dvorak won't like it).  What about asymmetric warfare theories applied to the realm of corporate innovation and creativity?  Just a thought ...  See http://tinyurl.com/6mbcy .
 
Your next competitors?  Have you thought about Senegal, Uganda, Kenya, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, especially in the BPO space?  See http://tinyurl.com/5h93z .
 
Message to product companies: go sell services!!  Interesting take from a VMI perspective.  See http://tinyurl.com/5tqrt .
 
Don't know much about bloggin'?  Good take on the various types of corporate blogs.  See http://tinyurl.com/6my29 .
 
Urls as web services?  You have to read it to get it.  Might be a bit too much for the uninitiated ...  See http://tinyurl.com/563gm .
 
Joel is back and blogging!!  Joel takes on Jakob Nielsen in "it's not just usability."  See http://tinyurl.com/6msmm .
 
How about open source software for HPC?  See http://tinyurl.com/5qzleWARNING: Geek alert, geek alert!!
 
Saving the best for last: a piece on Woz.  See http://tinyurl.com/4szjf .
 
TTFN.  Expect a urls update before I go back to the States.
 
Cheers,
 
David Scott Lewis
President & Principal Analyst
IT E-Strategies, Inc.
Menlo Park, CA & Qingdao, China
 
http://www.itestrategies.com (current blog postings optimized for MSIE6.x)
http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa (access to blog content archives in China)
http://tinyurl.com/2azkh (current blog postings for viewing in other browsers and for access to blog content archives in the US & ROW)
http://tinyurl.com/2hg2e (AvantGo channel)
 
 
To automatically subscribe click on http://tinyurl.com/388yf .
 

Tuesday, September 07, 2004

[news] Grudge Match: China vs. Europe + "It's Malaysia Time ..."

Tuesday, September 7, 2004
Dateline: China
 
This week marks the debut of my bi-weekly (or so) column for the AlwaysOn Network, Silicon Valley's premier online social networking venue (and unofficially linked to Silicon Valley's premier in person social networking venue, the Churchill Club; I'm a member of both).  I will be sharing "Letter from China" columnist duties with Paul Waide, the head of Pacific Epoch, a Shanghai-based boutique consultancy that advises hedge funds on alternative investments in China.  My first column is on Shanghai and a couple/few forthcoming columns will examine cultural differences between Chinese Nationals, Chinese-Americans and Anglo-Americans, especially within the context of IT and IT marketing.  I will post my AlwaysOn "Letter from China" columns to this blog/e-newsletter, although please be advised that my intended audience are readers based in Silicon Valley.
 
Grudge Match: China vs. Europe
 
Staying on topic, I'd like to make a comment about a recent "Grudge Match" on the AlwaysOn Network.  See the item marked "Grudge Match" for 08.05.04 (5 August 2004) at http://www.alwayson-network.com/polling/index.php .
 
In the referenced "Grudge Match," China was pitted against Europe.  China received 45% of the votes in contrast to Europe's 55%.  Frankly, I'm surprised that China did so well.  I've found that the AO "Grudge Match" results tend to indicate sentiment more so than reality.  For example, a recent match pitted SpaceShipOne against NASA and SSO absolutely clobbered NASA (besides, perhaps most of the votes for NASA came from either Ames or the Blue Cube).  Of course, SSO is a high school science experiment compared to what NASA is doing, but I believe the results accurately reflect sentiment. 
 
But what is amazing (to me, at least) is that China was pitted against Europe in the first place!  Let's face it, this is a rather goofy "grudge match."  For Europe to include First World nations such as Germany, France, the U.K., Ireland, Italy, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark (yes, some countries are intentionally left out) -- and to compare the collective whole of First World Europe (a.k.a. "Western Europe") to China is absurd.  If this was First World Europe vs. China circa 2020, okay.  But TODAY?  Yet, the sentiment indicator showed a strong vote in favor of China.  Europe "won," but barely.
 
I propose the following "grudge match":  China vs. "Eastern Europe" (i.e., the former Soviet Bloc).  Look, if China can do so well against Europe as a whole (including First World Europe), I'm sure China would absolutely kick Second World Europe's butt!!  And a China "grudge match" against Eastern Europe more accurately reflects current "history."
 
But even this is a bit misleading.  The real "grudge match" is this:  China + India vs. Second World Europe.  And given this choice, only someone stranded on Mars for the past decade might choose Second World Europe.  Yet, this is the real so-called "grudge match."  First World Europe is in descent, to be sure, but it's descending from a high altitude.  It will take at least a decade or two for China (and/or India) to truly match First World Europe.  But China ALREADY is superior to Second World Europe.  And don't rant about NATO and EU memberships; this is simply window dressing.  Then combine China with India versus Second World Europe, playing into my "Golden Triangle" theme, i.e., it's all about the U.S., India and China.  This is where the action is, ESPECIALLY in IT.
 
"It's Malaysia Time ..."
 
I must be getting punchy since I'm borrowing a theme from a beer commercial, but it seems that Malaysia is experiencing its 15 minutes of fame.  The Philippines has recently been "hot," and several articles of late have been touting Malaysia (see, for example, an article which appeared in Space Daily).  Frankly, I'm getting tired of all this nonsense.  Look, when it comes to ITO (IT outsourcing) in East Asia, there are just two choices, i.e., India and China.  And, it's not really a competition; both have their strengths and weaknesses.  A few crumbs to Singers (Singapore), maybe even a few crumbs to the Kiwis (New Zealand).  The Philippines deserves notice, albeit passing notice, and Malaysia might be okay for some BPO.  But ITO?  Come on, give me a break!!  See my Furl archive for more links.
 
The only thing I recently found interesting regarding Malaysia was an article on Satyam's IT boot camp in Malaysia.  This isn't really unique, after all, IBM has been doing this sort of thing for decades.  So does HP.  Kind of like training plus a bit of brainwashing, but the brainwashing is acceptable since it includes political survival skills -- and said skills are essential, especially in F500 corporations.  But I like the idea of SI (systems integrator)-based training:  This way SIs can focus on "real" versus theoretically perceived needs.
 
IT Tidbits
 
Which certifications have the best ROI (return on investment)?  Playing off the idea of SI-based training, which are the most important certifications?  Well, Cisco leads with three out of the top five, although Microsoft picks up a couple of "wins" when looking at fastest-growing ROI, with RedHat and Oracle getting one win each.  SIs in China may also want to benchmark how much U.S. employees are paid given a certain certification, e.g., Microsoft DBAs receive an annual average salary of US$80,600.  Think about how much SIs in China pay for a certified Microsoft DBA.  For example, what do they get paid in Jinan -- or even in Dalian?  Compare this to US$80,600.  Spot any opportunities?  See http://tinyurl.com/3nvpz and http://tinyurl.com/6r2s5 .
 
ITO in the news.  Two particularly noteworthy items.  First, ITO got Slashdotted.  The Slashdot links are worth a review.  Probably some good insight into what American software engineers are thinking and feeling.  The second is a review of Lou Dobbs' new book on ITO and BPO.  Mr. Dobbs is a well-respected host on CNN; his views shouldn't be taken lightly.  A couple of excerpts from the review:
 
"GE, as Dobbs makes clear in abundant detail, is only one of many companies outsourcing high-tech and professional jobs to India and other parts of the world where wage expectations are lower.  Among the others spotlighted by Dobbs for outsourcing jobs to India, the Philippines, Romania, Ireland, Poland and other countries are IBM, SAS Institute, Intel, Microsoft, Perot Systems, Apple, Computer Associates, Dell, Hewlett-Packard, Oracle and Sun Microsystems."  My comment:  Romania is the Changsha of Third World Europe, i.e., their programmers are about as cheap as programmers come.
 
"'India can provide our software; China can provide our toys; Sri Lanka can make our clothes; Japan make our cars.  But at some point we have to ask, what will we export?  At what will Americans work?  And for what kind of wages?  No one I've asked in government, business or academia has been able to answer those questions,' Dobbs writes."  See the review in the Tallahassee Democrat or my Furl link .
 
So-called infrastructure vendors beat out app vendors in terms of their ability to meet expected ROI and TCO (total cost of ownership) levels.  I don't really like the way infrastructure and application vendors are defined in this article and related survey, but top honors go to IBM and Microsoft.  There's a lot being written between the lines, but in general this plays into my "build-to-a-stack" strategy, albeit Oracle is left behind.  See http://tinyurl.com/3tpjo .
 
 
New marketing technologies.  Interesting article from the premier issue of CMO (Chief Marketing Officer).  There are two ways to view this:  1) which marketing technologies can be used by SIs in China for their own marketing endeavors, and 2) which marketing technologies will likely be adopted by retailers, e-commerce sites, financial institutions and numerous other sectors -- and which in house skills does an SI in China need to implement these new technologies (all of which are IT-related)?  See http://tinyurl.com/57wvp .
 
Looking for partners in the utility computing space?  For a start, try the top 25 vendors.  (See http://tinyurl.com/48s9j .)  Yankee gives a quick look at utility computing ROI (see http://tinyurl.com/5fw88 ).  HP chimes in with their take, too (see http://tinyurl.com/58mhg ; it's a PDF).
 
The battle of the SI globals.  Two related articles both based on the same Forrester report.  (See http://tinyurl.com/6tfrn and http://tinyurl.com/5tljq .)  Issues being considered include scalability (i.e., handling US$100+ million accounts), the need for broad offerings (e.g., strategy consulting) and expanding geographical presence (hey, where is EDS in China?).   "(T)he (Forrester) study finds that Infosys and Wipro have melded together a mix of CMMI, P-CMM, Six Sigma and ISO 9000 to create a culture focused on consistent and repeatable processes and value-added tools."  For China's SIs, mostly food for thought -- and a bit of dreaming.
 
... and how to battle the globals.  The article was a bit silly, after all, G2000 firms joining forces to battle Accenture or Infosys doesn't really fit the notion of smaller firms joining forces.  But I believe that they're on the right track and that a myriad of partnerships will be formed to most effectively capture new business and battle the globals.  However, ISVs (independent software vendors) have to walk a very fine line.  SIs need to carefully consider ISV responses and existing alliances.  See http://tinyurl.com/7xj82 .
 
"Infosys to set up second outsourcing facility in China."  The article states that Infosys is running out of space in their Pudong facility and that they're scouting for additional digs.  Come on, guys, running out of space?  There's not enough space in the Shanghai Pudong Software Park?  I don't think so ...  The reality is that Infosys needs to find lower cost developers.  As my column on Shanghai for AO's "Letter from China" notes, developers in Shanghai are a bit pricey compared to other places in China.  Infosys China is primarily servicing their global customers in China and looking for high-end integration within the domestic market.  However, this is a tough nut to crack and Infosys will need another development center to lower their overall costs -- and this is why they are looking for additional space IN ANOTHER CITY.  The idea that they're running out of space in the SPSP is ridiculous.  (I've been to their Shanghai digs ...)  See http://tinyurl.com/6nz8d .
 
Zensar gets broader press coverage.  Kind of like watching a meme, a couple of non-Indian IT trades have picked up the Zensar/Broadengate announcement.  See http://tinyurl.com/65afx and http://tinyurl.com/3jh2r .
 
"Rethinking the business case for Java."  A good article.  Hmmm ... maybe not much of a case, eh?    Hey, I'm still a believer.  See http://tinyurl.com/5hbcn .  Of course, Java programming ain't what it used to be ...
 
"The selling of SOA."  Two-part series in Line56.  SUPERB!!  (I prefer the singular to the plural, i.e., "architecture" versus "architectures"; personal preference.)  Reviews various viewpoints on SOA.  See http://tinyurl.com/6xqdn and http://tinyurl.com/6tw9o .
 
Urls update.  Expect to see lots and lots of stuff on software engineering and development.  Great stuff, too!!  Later this week.
 
Cheers,
 
David Scott Lewis
President & Principal Analyst
IT E-Strategies, Inc.
Menlo Park, CA & Qingdao, China
 
http://www.itestrategies.com (current blog postings optimized for MSIE6.x)
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Wednesday, September 01, 2004

[urls] Web Services Differentiation with Service Level Agreements

Wednesday, September 1, 2004
Dateline: China
 
The following is a sampling of my top ten "urls" for the past couple/few weeks.  By signing up with Furl (it's free), anyone can subscribe to an e-mail feed of ALL my urls (about 100-250 per week) -- AND limit by subject (e.g., ITO) and/or rating (e.g., articles rated "Very Good" or "Excellent").  It's also possible to receive new urls as an RSS feed.  However, if you'd like to receive a daily feed of my urls but do NOT want to sign up with Furl, I can manually add your name to my daily Furl distribution list.  (And if you want off, I'll promptly remove your e-mail address.)
 
Top Honors:
 
* Web Services Differentiation with Service Level Agreements, courtesy of IBM T.J. Watson; as the title suggests, this paper tackles SLAs.  See also Web Services QoS: External SLAs and Internal Policies, by the same author.  The latter paper was the invited keynote at the 1st Web Services Quality Workshop (this site provides links to abstracts for all the workshop papers as well as links to each author's personal site).
 
Other best new selections (in no particular order):
 
* Product Focused Software Process Improvement: PROFES 2004 (if you're going to read only one tech book this year, let it be this!!)
* Legacy systems strike back!!  We all know that there is a good market in servicing legacy systems.  See the following: Arriba: Architectural Resources for the Restructuring and Integration of Business Application (an introduction), Identifying Problems in Legacy Software, and Evolution of Legacy Systems.  
* Online Communities in Business: Past Progress, Future Directions, Five Keys To Building Business Relationships Online and Advantages of Using Social Software for Building Your Network.  (I can say with a fairly high level of confidence that these tools can be used to expand your business network.  Been there, done that.  Give it a try.  Do I already know you and would you like an invitation to join LinkedIn?  If the answer to both questions is "yes," let me know ...)
* Carnegie Mellon Project Aura Video (gets a bit silly at times, but the language translation component was interesting to see; the R-T example is still years away, but the idea is intriguing and this is where collaboration tools need to go)
* Innovation: Strategy for Small Fish (from the Harvard Business School; however, NVIDIA would not have been my choice for a case study)
* Stata Labs: Managing at a Distance, for Less (a pretty good case study; I firmly believe that China's systems integrators/contract developers need world-class collaboration tools and this describes one of the formats I support)
* An Authoring Technology for Multidevice Web Applications (one of my favorite topics -- and an area where I believe SIs in China can take the lead)
* Cheapware (or, "Changsha Gone Wild!!"; hey Qilu clan, are you listening?  Go, Ding, go!!)
* How To Team With A Vendor (a "must read" -- and evidently a lot of my readers already did, even though I only made a passing reference in a previous posting)
 
Examples of urls that didn't make my "Top Ten List":
 
> ITU Internet Reports 2004: The Portable Internet (looks like this might be a great series; less biased than the typical IT advisory services report -- and a much better value, too)
> Software Cost Reduction (courtesy of the <U.S.> Naval Research Lab, this paper is a bit dated, but still worth reading; addresses problems with large-scale systems, albeit a bit light on practical examples) 
> Japan IT Outsourcing 2004-2008 Forecast: IDC (might be a worthwhile purchase, especially for the Dalian-based systems integrators)
> The Power of No (Linux as a bargaining tool <see my Furl comments, too>; make Microsoft shake in their boots!!)
> Web Design Practices (a good reference site)
 
and many, many more ...
 
Cheers,
 
David Scott Lewis
President & Principal Analyst
IT E-Strategies, Inc.
Menlo Park, CA & Qingdao, China
 
http://www.itestrategies.com (current blog postings optimized for MSIE6.x)
http://tinyurl.com/2r3pa (access to blog content archives in China)
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Friday, August 13, 2004

[news] "2004 State of Application Development"

Friday, August 13, 2004
Dateline: China
 
Special issues of journals and magazines are often quite good -- if you're into the subject matter.  But the current issue of VARBusiness is absolutely SUPERB!!  EVERY SYSTEMS INTEGRATOR SHOULD READ IT ASAP -- STOP WHAT YOU'RE DOING AND READ THIS ISSUE!!  (Or, at the very least, read the excerpts which follow.)  See http://tinyurl.com/6smzu .  They even have the survey results to 36 questions ranging from change in project scope to preferred verticals.  In this posting, I'm going to comment on excerpts from this issue.  My comments are in blue.  Bolded excerpted items are MY emphasis.
 
The lead article and cover story is titled, "The App-Dev Revolution."  "Of the solution providers we surveyed, 72 percent say they currently develop custom applications or tailor packaged software for their customers. Nearly half (45 percent) of their 2003 revenues came from these app-dev projects, and nearly two-thirds of them expect the app-dev portion of total revenue to increase during the next 12 months."  I view this as good news for China's SIs; from what I've observed, many SIs in China would be a good fit for SIs in the U.S. looking for partners to help lower their development costs.  "By necessity, today's solution providers are becoming nimbler in the software work they do, designing and developing targeted projects like those that solve regulatory compliance demands, such as HIPAA, or crafting wireless applications that let doctors and nurses stay connected while they roam hospital halls."  Have a niche; don't try to be everything to everyone.  "Nine in 10 of survey respondents said their average app-dev projects are completed in less than a year now, with the smallest companies (those with less than $1 million in revenue) finishing up in the quickest time, three months, on average."  Need for speed.  "The need to get the job done faster for quick ROI might explain the growing popularity of Microsoft's .Net framework and tools.  In our survey, 53 percent of VARs said they had developed a .Net application in the past 12 months, and 66 percent of them expect to do so in the coming 12 months."  My Microsoft build-to-their-stack strategy.  "Some of the hottest project areas they report this year include application integration, which 69 percent of VARs with between $10 million or more in revenue pinned as their busiest area.  Other top development projects center around e-commerce applications, CRM, business-intelligence solutions, enterprisewide portals and ERP, ..."  How many times have I said this?    "At the same time, VARs in significant numbers are tapping open-source tools and exploiting Web services and XML to help cut down on expensive software-integration work; in effect, acknowledging that application development needs to be more cost-conscious and, thus, take advantage of open standards and reusable components.  Our survey found that 32 percent of VARs had developed applications on Linux in the past six months, while 46 percent of them said they plan to do so in the next six months.  The other open-source technologies they are using today run the gamut from databases and development tools to application servers."  I guess there's really an open source strategy.  I come down hard on open source for one simple reason:  I believe that SIs in China could get more sub-contracting business from a build-to-a-stack strategy.  And building to the open source stack isn't building to a stack at all!!  "As a business, it has many points of entry and areas of specialization.  Our survey participants first arrived in the world of app dev in a variety of ways, from bidding on app-dev projects (45 percent) to partnering with more experienced developers and VARs (28 percent) to hiring more development personnel (31 percent)."  For SIs in China, simply responding to end-user RFQs is kind of silly.  Better to partner on a sub-contracting basis.  "According to our State of Application Development survey, health care (36 percent), retail (31 percent) and manufacturing (30 percent) ranked as the most popular vertical industries for which respondents are building custom applications.  Broken down further, among VARs with less than $1 million in total sales, retail scored highest, while health care topped the list of midrange to large solution providers."  Because of regulatory issues, I'm not so keen on health care.  I'd go with manufacturing followed by retail.  My $ .02.  "When it comes to partnering with the major platform vendors, Microsoft comes out the hands-on winner among ISVs and other development shops.  A whopping 76 percent of developers in our survey favored the Microsoft camp.  Their level of devotion was evenly divided among small, midsize and large VARs who partner with Microsoft to develop and deliver their application solutions.  By contrast, the next closest vendor is IBM, with whom one in four VARs said they partner.  Perhaps unsurprisingly, the IBM percentages were higher among the large VAR category (those with sales of $10 million or more), with 42 percent of their partners coming from that corporate demographic.  Only 16 percent of smaller VARs partner with IBM, according to the survey.  The same goes for Oracle: One-quarter of survey respondents reported partnering with the Redwood Shores, Calif.-based company, with 47 percent of them falling in the large VAR category.  On the deployment side, half of the developers surveyed picked Windows Server 2003/.Net as the primary platform to deliver their applications, while IBM's WebSphere application server was the choice for 7 percent of respondents.  BEA's WebLogic grabbed 4 percent, and Oracle's 9i application server 3 percent of those VARs who said they use these app servers as their primary deployment vehicle."  Microsoft, Microsoft, Microsoft.  Need I say more?  See http://tinyurl.com/45z94 .
 
The next article is on open source.  "Want a world-class database with all the bells and whistles for a fraction of what IBM or Oracle want?  There's MySQL.  How about a compelling alternative to WebSphere or WebLogic?  Think JBoss.  These are, obviously, the best-known examples of the second generation of open-source software companies following in the footsteps of Apache, Linux and other software initiatives, but there are far more alternatives than these.  Consider Zope, a content-management system downloaded tens of thousands of times per month free of charge, according to Zope CEO Rob Page.  Some believe Zope and applications built with Zope are better than the commercial alternative they threaten to put out of business, Documentum.  Zope is also often used to help build additional open-source applications.  One such example is Plone, an open-source information-management system.  What began as a fledgling movement at the end of the past decade and later became known as building around the "LAMP stack" (LAMP is an acronym that stands for Linux, Apache, MySQL and PHP or Perl) has exploded to virtually all categories of software.  That includes security, where SpamAssassin is battling spam and Symantec, too.  Popular?  Well, it has now become an Apache Software Foundation official project.  The use of open source is so widespread that the percentage of solution providers who say they partner with MySQL nearly equals the percentage who say they partner with Oracle"23 percent to 25 percent, respectively.There are plenty of choices for those SIs willing to play the open source game.  See http://tinyurl.com/4e3c7 .
 
"It's all about integration" follows.  "There are many reasons for the surge in application-development projects (the recent slowdown in software spending notwithstanding).  For one, many projects that were put on hold when the downturn hit a few years ago are now back in play.  That includes enterprise-portal projects, supply-chain automation efforts, various e-commerce endeavors and the integration of disparate business systems."  Choose carefully, however.  Balance this data with other data.  Right now, I see a lot more play with portals and EAI.  "Indeed, the need for quality and timely information is a key driver of investments in application-integration initiatives and the implementation of database and business-intelligence software and portals.  A healthy majority of solution providers say application integration is a key component of the IT solutions they are deploying for customers.  According to our application-development survey, 60 percent say their projects involved integrating disparate applications and systems during the past 12 months."  "Some customers are moving beyond enterprise-application integration to more standards-based services-oriented architectures (SOAs).  SOAs are a key building block that CIOs are looking to build across their enterprises."  Anyone who regularly reads any one of my three IT-related blogs knows that I'm gung-ho on SOAs.  "Even if your customers are not looking for an SOA, integrating different systems is clearly the order of the day.  To wit, even those partners that say enterprise portals or e-business applications account for the bulk of their business note that the integration component is key."  Yes, integration, integration, integration.  I'll be saying this next year, too.  And the year after ...  "Another way to stay on top of the competition is to participate in beta programs."  Absolutely true -- and a good strategy, too.  See http://tinyurl.com/6x2gg .
 
The next article is on utility computing versus packaged softwareAgain, if you read what I write, you know that I'm also gung-ho on utility computing.  "According to VARBusiness' survey of application developers, more than 66 percent of the applications created currently reside with the customer, while 22 percent of applications deployed are hosted by the VAR.  And a little more than 12 percent of applications developed are being hosted by a third party.   Where services have made their biggest inroads as an alternative to software is in applications that help companies manage their customer and sales information.The article goes on to state that apps that are not mission-critical have the best chance in the utility computing space.  Time will tell.  Take note, however, that these are often the apps that will most likely be outsourced to partners in China.  "Simply creating services from scratch and then shopping them around isn't the only way to break into this area.  NewView Consulting is expanding its services business by starting with the client and working backward.  The Porter, Ind.-based security consultant takes whatever technology clients have and develops services for them based on need."   And focus on services businesses and .NET, too.  "Most application developers agree that services revenue will continue to climb for the next year or two before they plateau, resulting in a 50-50 or 60-40 services-to-software mix for the typical developer.  The reason for this is that while applications such as CRM are ideally suited to services-based delivery, there are still plenty of other applications that companies would prefer to keep in-house and that are often dependent on the whims of a particular company."  Still, such a split shows a phenomenal rise in the importance of utility computing offerings.  See http://tinyurl.com/54blv .
 
Next up:  Microsoft wants you!!  (Replace the image of Uncle Sam with the image of Bill Gates!!)  Actually, the article isn't specifically about Microsoft.  "Microsoft is rounding up as many partners as it can and is bolstering them with support to increase software sales.  The attitude is: Here's our platform; go write and prosper.  IBM's strategy, meanwhile, is strikingly different.  While it, too, has created relationships with tens of thousands of ISVs over recent years,  IBM prefers to handpick a relatively select group, numbering approximately 1,000, and develop a hand-holding sales and marketing approach with them in a follow-through, go-to-market strategy."  Both are viable strategies, but NOT both at the same time!!  "To be sure, the results of VARBusiness' 2004 State of Application Development survey indicates that Microsoft's strategy makes it the No. 1 go-to platform vendor among the 472 application developers participating in the survey.  In fact, more than seven out of 10 (76 percent) said they were partnering with Microsoft to deliver custom applications for their clients.  That number is nearly three times the percentage of application developers (26 percent) who said they were working with IBM ..."  Percentages as follows:  Microsoft, 76%; IBM, 26%; Oracle, 25%; MySQL, 23%; Red Hat, 17%; Sun, 16%; Novell, 11%; BEA, 9%.  I said BOTH, NOT ALL.  Think Microsoft and IBM.  However, a Java strategy could be BOTH a Sun AND IBM strategy (and even a BEA strategy).  See http://tinyurl.com/68grf .
 
There was another article I liked called, "How to Team With A Vendor," although it's not part of the app-dev special section per se.  This posting is too long, so I'll either save it for later or now note that it has been urled.  See http://www.furl.net/item.jsp?id=680282 .  Also a kind of funny article on turning an Xbox into a Linux PC.  See http://tinyurl.com/4mhn6 .  See also http://www.xbox-linux.org .
 
Quick note:  I'll be in SH and HZ most of next week, so I may not publish again until the week of the 23rd.
 
Cheers,
 
David Scott Lewis
President & Principal Analyst
IT E-Strategies, Inc.
Menlo Park, CA & Qingdao, China
 
http://www.itestrategies.com (current blog postings optimized for MSIE6.x)
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